Articles | Volume 22, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-3723-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-3723-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Recent thermohaline shifts in the Adriatic Sea and their potential consequences
Division for Marine and Environmental Research, Ruđer Bošković Institute, Bijenička cesta 54, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia
Ivica Vilibić
Division for Marine and Environmental Research, Ruđer Bošković Institute, Bijenička cesta 54, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia
Institute for Adriatic Crops and Karst Reclamation, Put Duilova 11, 21000 Split, Croatia
Related authors
Elena Terzić, Clara Gardiol, and Ivica Vilibić
Ocean Sci., 21, 1441–1459, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1441-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1441-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Vertical salinity profiles with their highest values at the surface layers – surface saline lakes – have been known to occur in the eastern Mediterranean, where strong evaporation, warm summers, and low winds all contribute to an increase in surface salinity. Our analysis of Argo data from the past 2 decades showed that saline lakes also occur in other regions across the Mediterranean Sea. This poses the question of whether such changes indicate a salinification of the entire basin due to climate change.
Manuel Vargas-Yáñez, Orens Pasqueron de Fommervault, Emanuela Clementi, Christian Ferrarin, Svitlana Liubartseva, Diego Álvarez-Berastegui, Baptiste Mourre, Matjaz Licer, George Alexandrakis, Salvatore Aronica, Rosa Balbín, Joaquín Ballabrera-Poy, Sana Ben Ismail, Nathaniel Bensoussan, Ismail Bessa, Alicia Blanco, Anthony Bosse, Evi Bourma, François Bourrin, Carlo Brandini, Fulvio Capodici, Clara Casals-Baixas, Branko Cermelj, Giuseppe Ciraolo, Pascal Conan, Laurent Coppola, Lorenzo Corgnati, Joaquín del Río, Emilie Diamond Riquier, Lara Díaz-Barroso, Bartolomeo Doronzo, Xavier Durrieu de Madron, Milad Fakhri, Constantin Frangoulis, Claudia Fratianni, Emilio García-Ladona, Jesús García-Lafuente, M. Carmen García-Martínez, Joaquín Garrabou, Josep Gasol, Adam Gauci, Frédéric Gazeau, Gerald Gregori, Abed El Rahman Hassoun, Jordi Isern-Fontanet, Dominique Lefevre, Nadia Lo Bue, Guiomar López, Pablo Lorente, Deny Malengros, Ramon Massana, Sinan Mavruk, Stefano Miserocchi, Behzad Mostajir, Laure Mousseau, Francina Moya, Antonio Novellino, Arianna Orasi, Emanuele Organelli, Vincent Ouisse, Tal Ozer, Antonios Parasyris, Begoña Pérez-Gómez, Susana Pérez-Rubio, Leonidas Perivoliotis, George Petihakis, Anne Petrenko, Sebastien Pinel, Xavier Pitarch, Angela Pomaro, Lucía Quirós-Collazos, Emma Reyes, Simone Sammartino, Anna Sánchez-Vidal, Lucía Sanz-Pinilla, Katrin Schroeder, Stefano Taddei, Elena Tel, Pierre Testor, Marco Torri, Daniela Turk, Laura Ursella, Dimitris Velaoras, Francesca Vidussi, Ivica Vilibić, Enrico Zambianchi, Nikolaos D. Zarokanellos, George Zodiatis, and Vanessa Cardin
Ocean Sci., 22, 3619–3655, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-3619-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-3619-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This work provides a comprehensive overview of the current marine observation capabilities in the Mediterranean Sea, making this information accessible to scientists, stakeholders and environmental policymakers. It supports initiatives such as the Copernicus Marine Service, European Marine Observation and Data Network, the European Ocean Pact and relevant European Union directives. It’s intended to be regularly updated, helping to identify strengths and gaps in Mediterranean observation systems.
Elena Terzić, Clara Gardiol, and Ivica Vilibić
Ocean Sci., 21, 1441–1459, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1441-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1441-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Vertical salinity profiles with their highest values at the surface layers – surface saline lakes – have been known to occur in the eastern Mediterranean, where strong evaporation, warm summers, and low winds all contribute to an increase in surface salinity. Our analysis of Argo data from the past 2 decades showed that saline lakes also occur in other regions across the Mediterranean Sea. This poses the question of whether such changes indicate a salinification of the entire basin due to climate change.
Davide Bonaldo, Sandro Carniel, Renato R. Colucci, Cléa Denamiel, Petra Pranić, Fabio Raicich, Antonio Ricchi, Lorenzo Sangelantoni, Ivica Vilibić, and Maria Letizia Vitelletti
Ocean Sci., 21, 1003–1031, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1003-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1003-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a high-resolution modelling effort to investigate the possible end-of-century evolution of the main physical processes in the Adriatic Sea in a severe climate change scenario, with an ensemble approach (i.e. use of multiple simulations) allowing us to control the uncertainty of the predictions. Our model exhibits a satisfactory capability to reproduce the recent past and provides a basis for a set of multidisciplinary studies in this area over a multi-decadal horizon.
Petra Pranić, Cléa Denamiel, Ivica Janeković, and Ivica Vilibić
Ocean Sci., 19, 649–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-649-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-649-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we analyse and compare the results of four different approaches in modelling bora-driven dense-water dynamics in the Adriatic. The study investigated the likely requirements for modelling the ocean circulation in the Adriatic and found that a 31-year run of a fine-resolution Adriatic climate model is able to outperform most aspects of the newest reanalysis product, a short-term hindcast and data-assimilated simulation, in reproducing the dense-water dynamics in the Adriatic Sea.
Cléa Denamiel and Ivica Vilibić
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-913, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-913, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new methodology using coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave models and demonstrate the feasibility to provide meter scale assessments of the impact of climate change on storm surge hazards. We show that sea level variations and distributions can be derived at the climate scale in the Adriatic Sea small lagoons and bays. We expect that the newly developed methodology could lead to more targeted adaptation strategies in regions of the world vulnerable to atmospherically driven extreme events.
Begoña Pérez Gómez, Ivica Vilibić, Jadranka Šepić, Iva Međugorac, Matjaž Ličer, Laurent Testut, Claire Fraboul, Marta Marcos, Hassen Abdellaoui, Enrique Álvarez Fanjul, Darko Barbalić, Benjamín Casas, Antonio Castaño-Tierno, Srđan Čupić, Aldo Drago, María Angeles Fraile, Daniele A. Galliano, Adam Gauci, Branislav Gloginja, Víctor Martín Guijarro, Maja Jeromel, Marcos Larrad Revuelto, Ayah Lazar, Ibrahim Haktan Keskin, Igor Medvedev, Abdelkader Menassri, Mohamed Aïssa Meslem, Hrvoje Mihanović, Sara Morucci, Dragos Niculescu, José Manuel Quijano de Benito, Josep Pascual, Atanas Palazov, Marco Picone, Fabio Raicich, Mohamed Said, Jordi Salat, Erdinc Sezen, Mehmet Simav, Georgios Sylaios, Elena Tel, Joaquín Tintoré, Klodian Zaimi, and George Zodiatis
Ocean Sci., 18, 997–1053, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-997-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-997-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This description and mapping of coastal sea level monitoring networks in the Mediterranean and Black seas reveals the existence of 240 presently operational tide gauges. Information is provided about the type of sensor, time sampling, data availability, and ancillary measurements. An assessment of the fit-for-purpose status of the network is also included, along with recommendations to mitigate existing bottlenecks and improve the network, in a context of sea level rise and increasing extremes.
Emma Reyes, Eva Aguiar, Michele Bendoni, Maristella Berta, Carlo Brandini, Alejandro Cáceres-Euse, Fulvio Capodici, Vanessa Cardin, Daniela Cianelli, Giuseppe Ciraolo, Lorenzo Corgnati, Vlado Dadić, Bartolomeo Doronzo, Aldo Drago, Dylan Dumas, Pierpaolo Falco, Maria Fattorini, Maria J. Fernandes, Adam Gauci, Roberto Gómez, Annalisa Griffa, Charles-Antoine Guérin, Ismael Hernández-Carrasco, Jaime Hernández-Lasheras, Matjaž Ličer, Pablo Lorente, Marcello G. Magaldi, Carlo Mantovani, Hrvoje Mihanović, Anne Molcard, Baptiste Mourre, Adèle Révelard, Catalina Reyes-Suárez, Simona Saviano, Roberta Sciascia, Stefano Taddei, Joaquín Tintoré, Yaron Toledo, Marco Uttieri, Ivica Vilibić, Enrico Zambianchi, and Alejandro Orfila
Ocean Sci., 18, 797–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-797-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-797-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work reviews the existing advanced and emerging scientific and societal applications using HFR data, developed to address the major challenges identified in Mediterranean coastal waters organized around three main topics: maritime safety, extreme hazards and environmental transport processes. It also includes a discussion and preliminary assessment of the capabilities of existing HFR applications, finally providing a set of recommendations towards setting out future prospects.
Pablo Lorente, Eva Aguiar, Michele Bendoni, Maristella Berta, Carlo Brandini, Alejandro Cáceres-Euse, Fulvio Capodici, Daniela Cianelli, Giuseppe Ciraolo, Lorenzo Corgnati, Vlado Dadić, Bartolomeo Doronzo, Aldo Drago, Dylan Dumas, Pierpaolo Falco, Maria Fattorini, Adam Gauci, Roberto Gómez, Annalisa Griffa, Charles-Antoine Guérin, Ismael Hernández-Carrasco, Jaime Hernández-Lasheras, Matjaž Ličer, Marcello G. Magaldi, Carlo Mantovani, Hrvoje Mihanović, Anne Molcard, Baptiste Mourre, Alejandro Orfila, Adèle Révelard, Emma Reyes, Jorge Sánchez, Simona Saviano, Roberta Sciascia, Stefano Taddei, Joaquín Tintoré, Yaron Toledo, Laura Ursella, Marco Uttieri, Ivica Vilibić, Enrico Zambianchi, and Vanessa Cardin
Ocean Sci., 18, 761–795, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-761-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-761-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
High-frequency radar (HFR) is a land-based remote sensing technology that can provide maps of the surface circulation over broad coastal areas, along with wave and wind information. The main goal of this work is to showcase the current status of the Mediterranean HFR network as well as present and future applications of this sensor for societal benefit such as search and rescue operations, safe vessel navigation, tracking of marine pollutants, and the monitoring of extreme events.
Cited articles
Amorim, F. L. L., Le Meur, J., Wirth, A., and Cardin, V.: Tipping of the double-diffusive regime in the southern Adriatic Pit in 2017 in connection with record high-salinity values, Ocean Sci., 20, 463–474, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-463-2024, 2024. a, b
Artegiani, A., Bregant, D., Paschini, E., Pinardi, N., Raicich, F., and Russo, A.: The Adriatic Sea general circulation. Part I: Air–sea interactions and water mass structure. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 27, 1492–1514, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1997)027<1492:TASGCP>2.0.CO;2, 1997. a, b, c, d
Beg Paklar, G., Vilibić, I., Grbec, B., Matić, F., Mihanović, H., Džoić, T., Šantić, D., Šestanović, S., Šolić, M., Ivatek-Šahdan, S., and Kušpilić, G.: Record-breaking salinities in the middle Adriatic during summer 2017 and concurrent changes in the microbial food web. Prog. Oceanogr., 185, 102345, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2020.102345, 2020. a, b
Bellin, N. and Rossi, V.: Modeling the effects of climate change on the habitat suitability of Mediterranean gorgonians, Biodivers. Conserv., 33, 929–948, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-024-02779-z, 2024. a
Bourgeois, T., Goris, N., Schwinger, J., and Tjiputra, J. F.: Stratification constrains future heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean between 30° S and 55° S. Nat. Commun., 13, 340, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-27979-5, 2022. a
Breitburg, D., Levin, L. A., Oschlies, A., Grégoire, M., Chavez, F. P., and Conley, D. J.: Declining oxygen in the global ocean and coastal waters, Science, 359, 6371, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aam7240, 2018. a
Bretherton, C. S., Widmann, M., Dymnikov, V. P., Wallace, J. M., and Bladé, I.: The effective number of spatial degrees of freedom of a time-varying field, J. Climate, 12, 1990–2009, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<1990:TENOSD>2.0.CO;2, 1999. a
Buljan, M. and Zore-Armanda, M.: Hydrographic data on the Adriatic Sea collected in the period from 1952 through 1964, Acta Adriat., 12, 1–438, 1966. a
Buljan, M. and Zore-Armanda, M.: Hydrographic properties of the Adriatic Sea in the period from 1965 through 1970, Acta Adriat., 20, 1–368, 1979. a
Cantoni, C., De Vittor, C., Faganeli, J., Giani, M., Kovač, N., and Malej, A.: Carbonate system and acidification of the Adriatic Sea, Mar. Chem., 267, 104462, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marchem.2024.104462, 2024. a
Capriotti, M., Bracchetti, L., Cocci, P., Mazzocchi, V., Fazzini, M., Corvaro, F., and Palermo, F. A.: In situ investigation of ecological and molecular stress mechanisms triggered by marine heat waves in Adriatic populations of the Mediterranean mussel, Diversity, 17, 385, https://doi.org/10.3390/d17060385, 2025. a
Carlot, J., Galobart, C., Gómez-Gras, D., Santamaría, J., Golo, R., Sini, M., Cebrian, E., Gerovasileiou, V., Ponti, M., Turicchia, E., Comeau, S., Rilov, G., Tamburello, L., Pulido Mantas, T., Cerrano, C., Ledoux, J.-B., Gattuso, J.-P., Ramirez-Calero, S., Millan, L., Montefalcone, M., Katsanevakis, S., Bensoussan, N., Garrabou, J., and Teixidó, N.: Vulnerability of benthic trait diversity across the Mediterranean Sea following mass mortality events. Nat. Commun., 16, 1571, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-55949-0, 2025. a
Cetinić, A. B.: Shellfisheries in Croatia: from manual collection to contemporary practices, Naše More, 71, 154–165, https://doi.org/10.17818/NM/2024/3.8, 2024. a
Chiarini, M., Guicciardi, S., Zacchetti, L., Domenichetti, F., Canduci, G., Angelini, S., Belardinelli, A., Croci, C., Giuliani, G., Scarpini, P., Santojanni, A., Medvešek, D., Isajlović, I., Vrgoč, N., and Martinelli, M.: Short-term evaluation of changes in fisheries management measures in the Pomo/Jabuka Pits area, Sustainability, 14, 7742, https://doi.org/10.3390/su14137742, 2022. a, b
Civitarese, G., Gačić, M., Lipizer, M., and Eusebi Borzelli, G. L.: On the impact of the Bimodal Oscillating System (BiOS) on the biogeochemistry and biology of the Adriatic and Ionian Seas (Eastern Mediterranean), Biogeosciences, 7, 3987–3997, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-3987-2010, 2010. a
Civitarese, G., Gačić, M., Batistić, M., Bensi, M., Cardin, V., Dulčić, J., Garić, R., and Menna, M.: The BiOS mechanism: History, theory, implications. Prog. Oceanogr., 216, 103056, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2023.103056, 2023. a
Cushman-Roisin, B. and Korotenko, K. A.: Mesoscale-resolving simulations of summer and winter bora events in the Adriatic Sea, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 112, C11S91, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JC003516, 2007. a
Denamiel, C., Tojčić, I., and Vilibić, I.: Balancing accuracy and efficiency of atmospheric models in the northern Adriatic during severe bora events, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2020JD033516, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033516, 2021. a
Fach, B. A., Orek, H., Yilmaz, E., Tezcan, D., Salihoglu, I., Salihoglu, B., and Latif, M. A.: Water mass variability and Levantine Intermediate Water formation in the Eastern Mediterranean between 2015 and 2017, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 126, e2020JC016472, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016472, 2021. a
Gačić, M., Civitarese, G., Miserocchi, S., Cardin, V., Crise, A., and Mauri, E.: The open-ocean convection in the Southern Adriatic: a controlling mechanism of the spring phytoplankton bloom, Cont. Shelf Res., 22, 1897–1908, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0278-4343(02)00050-X, 2002. a
Gačić, M., Eusebi Borzelli, G. L. E., Civitarese, G., Cardin, V., and Yari, S.: Can internal processes sustain reversals of the ocean upper circulation? The Ionian Sea example, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L09608, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043216, 2010. a
GEBCO Compilation Group: GEBCO 2024 Grid, British Oceanographic Data Centre [data set], https://doi.org/10.5285/1c44ce99-0a0d-5f4f-e063-7086abc0ea0f, 2024. a
Haberle, I., Hackenberger, D. K., Djerdj, T., Bavčević, L., Geček, S., Hackenberger, B. K., Marn, N., Klanjšček, J., Purgar, M., Pečar Ilić, J., and Klanjscek, T.: Effects of climate change on gilthead seabream aquaculture in the Mediterranean, Aquaculture, 578, 740052, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2023.740052, 2024. a
Holt, J., Katavouta, A., Hopkins, J., Amoudry, L. O., Appendini, C. M., Arneborg, L., Arnold, A., Artioli, Y., Aucan, J., Berx, B., Cagigal, L., De Dominicis, M., Denamiel, C., Galli, G., Graham, J. A., Jacobs, Z., Jevrejeva, S., Kamranzad, B., Langlais, C., Larsen, M. A. D., Lira-Loarca, A., Lyddon, C., Mathis, M., Melet, A., Méndez, F., Muis, S., Myers, P., O’Donovan, M., Olbert, A. I., Palmer, M. D., Phillips, L., Polton, J., Pozo Buil, M., Robins, P., Ruju, A., Schlaefer, J. A., Senatore, A., Siedlecki, S., Tinker, J., Verri, G., Vilibić, I., Wei, X., and Pinardi, N.: Future climate projections in the global coastal ocean, Prog. Oceanogr., 235, 103497, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103497, 2025. a
Ingrosso, G., Bensi, M., Cardin, V., and Giani, M.: Anthropogenic CO2 in a dense water formation area of the Mediterranean Sea, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. I, 123, 118–128, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr.2017.04.004, 2017. a
IOC, SCOR and IAPSO: The international thermodynamic equation of seawater – 2010: Calculation and use of thermodynamic properties, IOC Manuals and Guides No. 56, UNESCO, Paris, https://doi.org/10.25607/OBP-1662, 2010. a, b
Jacox, M. G. and Edwards, C. A.: Effects of stratification and shelf slope on nutrient supply in coastal upwelling regions, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 116, C03019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JC006547, 2011. a
Juza, M., Fernández-Mora, À., and Tintoré, J.: Sub-regional marine heat waves in the Mediterranean Sea from observations: long-term surface changes, sub-surface and coastal responses, Front. Mar. Sci., 9, 785771, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.785771, 2022. a
Kamberi, E., Hala, E., and Möllmann, C.: Evidence of climate-driven regime shifts in Adriatic Sea fisheries, Sci. Mar., 89, e108, https://doi.org/10.3989/scimar.05566.108, 2025. a
Kružić, P., Rodić, P., Popijač, A., and Sertić, M.: Impacts of temperature anomalies on mortality of benthic organisms in the Adriatic Sea, Mar. Ecol., 37, 1190–1209, https://doi.org/10.1111/maec.12293, 2016. a
Kubin, E., Poulain, P.-M., Mauri, E., Menna, M., and Notarstefano, G.: Levantine intermediate and Levantine deep water formation: an Argo float study from 2001 to 2017, Water, 11, 1781, https://doi.org/10.3390/w11091781, 2019. a
Kunze, E.: Limits on growing, finite-length salt fingers: a Richardson number constraint, J. Mar. Res., 45, 533–556, 1987. a
Le Meur, J., Wirth, A., de Mendoza, F. P., Miserocchi, S., and Cardin, V.: Intermittent supply of dense water to the deep South Adriatic Pit: an observational study, Front. Mar. Sci., 12, 1516780, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2025.1516780, 2025. a, b
Manca, B. B., Burca, M., Giorgetti, A., Coatanoan, C., Garcia, M. J., and Iona, A.: Physical and biochemical averaged vertical profiles in the Mediterranean regions: an important tool to trace the climatology of water masses and to validate incoming data from operational oceanography, J. Marine Syst., 48, 83–116, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2003.11.025, 2004. a, b
Marini, M., Russo, A., Paschini, E., Grilli, F., and Campanelli, A.: Short-term physical and chemical variations in the bottom water of middle Adriatic depressions, Clim. Res., 31, 227–237, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr031227, 2006. a
Martellucci, R., Dentico, C., Coppola, L., Skjelvan, I., Giani, M., Pensieri, S., Cantoni, C., Cardin, V., Fourrier, M., Bozzano, R., Paulsen, M., and Mauri, E.: Air–sea CO2 exchange in the Eastern Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea based on autonomous surface measurements, Front. Mar. Sci., 12, 1633617, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2025.1633617, 2025b. a
Martinelli, M., Zacchetti, L., Belardinelli, A., Domenichetti, F., Scarpini, P., Penna, P., Medvešek, D., Isajlović, I., and Vrgoč, N.: Changes in abundance and distribution of the sea pen, Funiculina quadrangularis, in the central Adriatic Sea (Mediterranean basin) in response to variations in trawling intensity, Fishes, 8, 347, https://doi.org/10.3390/fishes8070347, 2023. a
Matić-Skoko, S., Pavičić, M., Šepić, J., Janeković, I., Vrdoljak, D., Vilibić, I., Stagličić, N., Šegvić-Bubić, T., and Vujević, A.: Impacts of sea bottom temperature on CPUE of European lobster Homarus gammarus (Linnaeus, 1758; Decapoda, Nephropidae) in the Eastern Adriatic Sea, Front. Mar. Sci., 9, 891197, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.891197, 2022. a
Maze, G. and Balem, K.: argopy: A Python library for Argo ocean data analysis, J. Open Source Softw., 5, 2425, https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.02425, 2020. a
Mihanović, H., Vilibić, I., Carniel, S., Tudor, M., Russo, A., Bergamasco, A., Bubić, N., Ljubešić, Z., Viličić, D., Boldrin, A., Malačič, V., Celio, M., Comici, C., and Raicich, F.: Exceptional dense water formation on the Adriatic shelf in the winter of 2012, Ocean Sci., 9, 561–572, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-561-2013, 2013. a
Mihanović, H., Vilibić, I., Šepić, J., Matić, F., Ljubešić, Z., Mauri, E., Gerin, R., Notarstefano, G., and Poulain, P.-M.: Observation, preconditioning and recurrence of exceptionally high salinities in the Adriatic Sea, Front. Mar. Sci., 8, 672210, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.672210, 2021. a, b, c, d, e
Mohamed, B. and Skliris, N.: Steric and atmospheric contributions to interannual sea level variability in the eastern Mediterranean Sea over 1993–2019, Oceanologia, 64, 50–62, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceano.2021.09.001, 2022. a, b
Ozer, T., Rahav, E., Gertman, I., Sisma-Ventura, G., Silverman, J., and Herut, B.: Relationship between thermohaline and biochemical patterns in the Levantine upper and intermediate water masses, Southeastern Mediterranean Sea (2013–2021), Front. Mar. Sci., 9, 958924, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.958924, 2022. a
Pranić, P., Denamiel, C., Janeković, I., and Vilibić, I.: Multi-model analysis of the Adriatic dense-water dynamics, Ocean Sci., 19, 649–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-649-2023, 2023. a, b
Querin, S., Bensi, M., Cardin, V., Solidoro, C., Bacer, S., Mariotti, L., Stel, F., and Malačič, V.: Saw-tooth modulation of the deep-water thermohaline properties in the southern Adriatic Sea, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 121, 4585–4600, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011522, 2016. a, b
Reich, T., Belkin, N., Sisma-Ventura, G., Hauzer, H., Berman-Frank, I., and Rahav, E.: Does oligotrophy favor chemoautotrophy over photoautotrophy?, Prog. Oceanogr., 241, 103633, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103633, 2026. a
Richardson, C. M., Peucker-Ehrenbrink, B., Wyatt, S., Bourbonnais, A., Hatje, V., Frey, C., Sanders, T., Varela, D. E., and Paytan, A.: Effects of climate change on river and groundwater nutrient inputs to the coastal ocean, Commun. Earth Environ., 6, 761, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02594-6, 2025. a
Roether, W., Manca, B. B., Klein, B., Bregant, D., Georgopoulos, D., Beitzel, V., Kovačević, V., and Luchetta, A.: Recent changes in eastern Mediterranean deep waters, Science, 271, 333–335, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.271.5247.333, 1996. a
Schlitzer, R., Roether, W., Oster, H., Junghans, H.-G., Hausmann, M., Johannsen, H., and Michelato, A.: Chlorofluoromethane and oxygen in the Eastern Mediterranean, Deep-Sea Res., 38, 1531–1551, https://doi.org/10.1016/0198-0149(91)90088-W, 1991. a
Schmitt, R. W.: Double diffusion in oceanography, Annu. Rev. Fluid Mech., 26, 255–285, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.fl.26.010194.001351, 1994. a
Schroeder, K. and Chiggiato, J. (Eds.): Oceanography of the Mediterranean Sea: An Introductory Guide, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 558 pp., https://doi.org/10.1016/C2020-0-00371-3, 2022. a
Schroeder, K., Chiggiato, J., Josey, S. A., Borghini, M., Aracri, S., and Sparnocchia, S.: Rapid response to climate change in a marginal sea, Sci. Rep., 7, 4065, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-04455-5, 2017. a, b
SeaDataNet: Data quality control procedures, version 2.0, https://www.seadatanet.org/content/download/596/file/SeaDataNet_QC_procedures_V2_(May_2010).pdf (last access: 11 November 2026), 2010. a
Simoncelli, S., Schaap, D., and Schlitzer, R.: Mediterranean Sea – Temperature and salinity Historical Data Collection SeaDataCloud V2 (SDC_MED_DATA_TS_V2), SeaDataNet [data set], https://doi.org/10.12770/2a2aa0c5-4054-4a62-a18b-3835b304fe64, 2020. a
Skliris, N., Marsh, R., Breedon, M., and Josey, S. A.: Accelerated warming and salinification of the Mediterranean Sea: Implications for dense water formation, J. Mar. Sci. Eng., 13, 25, https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse13010025, 2025. a
Terzić, E. and Vilibić, I.: Cleaned Adriatic in situ hydrographic data (1952–2023) for a Mediterranean thermohaline acceleration analysis, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20345373, 2026a. a, b
Terzić, E. and Vilibić, I.: MedClim analysis code for Mediterranean thermohaline acceleration analysis, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20410481, 2026b. a, b
Terzić, E. and Vilibić, I.: Analysis code for “Recent thermohaline shifts in the Adriatic Sea and their potential consequences”, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23016822, 2026d. a, b
Terzić, E., Cardin, V., Le Meur, J., Dunić, N., Vodopivec, M., and Vilibić, I.: Unprecedented warming and salinization observed in the deep Adriatic, Limnol. Oceanogr. Lett., 10, 888–898, https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.70051, 2025a. a, b, c, d
Terzić, E., Gardiol, C., and Vilibić, I.: Surface saline lakes in the Mediterranean Sea, Ocean Sci., 21, 1441–1459, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1441-2025, 2025b. a, b
Tintoré, J., Pinardi, N., Álvarez-Fanjul, E., Aguiar, E., Álvarez- Berastegui, D., Bajo, M., Balbin, R., Bozzano, R., Buongiorno Nardelli, B., Cardin, V., Casas, B., Charcos-Llorens, M., Chiggiato, J., Clementi, E., Coppini, G., Coppola, L., Cossarini, G., Deidun, A., Deudero, S., D'Ortenzio, F., Drago, A., Drudi, M., El Serafy, G., Escudier, R., Farcy, P., Federico, I., Fernández, J. G., Ferrarin, C., Fossi, C., Frangoulis, C., Galgani, F., Gana, S., García Lafuente, J., García Sotillo, M., Garreau, P., Gertman, I., Gómez-Pujol, L., Grandi, A., ayes, D., Hernández-Lasheras, J., Herut, B., Heslop, E., Hilmi, K., Juza, M., Kallos, G., Korres, G., Lecci, R., Lazzari, P., Lorente, P., Liubartseva, S., Louanchi, F., Malačič, V., Mannarini, G., March, D., Marullo, S., Mauri, E., Meszaros, L., Mourre, B., Mortier, L., Muñoz-Mas, C., Novellino, A., Obaton, D., Orfila, A., Pascual, A., Pensieri, S., Pérez Gómez, B., Pérez Rubio, S., Perivoliotis, L., Petihakis, G., Petit de la Villéon, L., Pistoia, J., Poulain, P.-M., Pouliquen, S., Prieto, L., Raimbault, P., Reglero, P., Reyes, E., Rotllan, P., Ruiz, S., Ruiz, J., Ruiz, I., Ruiz- Orejón, L. F., Salihoglu, B., Salon, S., Sammartino, S., Sánchez Arcilla, A., Sánchez-Román, A., Sannino, G., Santoleri, R., Sardá, R., Schroeder, K., Simoncelli, S., Sofianos, S., Sylaios, G., Tanhua, T., Teruzzi, A., Testor, P., Tezcan, D., Torner, M., Trotta, F., Umgiesser, G., von Schuckmann, K., Verri, G., Vilibić, I., Yucel, M., Zavatarelli, M., and Zodiatis, G.: Challenges for sustained observing and forecasting systems in the Mediterranean Sea, Front. Mar. Sci., 6, 568, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00568, 2019. a
Verri, G., Furnari, L., Gunduz, M., Senatore, A., Santos da Costa, V., De Lorenzis, A., Fedele, G., Manco, I., Mentaschi, L., Clementi, E., Coppini, G., Mercogliano, P., Mendicino, G., and Pinardi, N.: Climate projections of the Adriatic Sea: role of river release, Front. Climate, 6, 1368413, https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1368413, 2024. a, b
Vilibić, I., Matijević, S., Šepić, J., and Kušpilić, G.: Changes in the Adriatic oceanographic properties induced by the Eastern Mediterranean Transient, Biogeosciences, 9, 2085–2097, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-2085-2012, 2012. a
Vilibić, I., Zemunik, P., Šepić, J., Dunić, N., Marzouk, O., Mihanović, H., Denamiel, C., Precali, R., and Djakovac, T.: Present climate trends and variability in thermohaline properties of the northern Adriatic shelf, Ocean Sci., 15, 1351–1362, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1351-2019, 2019. a
Vilibić, I., Pranić, P., and Denamiel, C.: North Adriatic Dense Water: lessons learned since the pioneering work of Mira Zore-Armanda 60 years ago, Acta Adriat., 64, 53–78, https://doi.org/10.32582/aa.64.1.11, 2023. a
Wagawa, T., Igeta, Y., and Abe, S.: Warming and springtime freshening trend in the southeastern Sea of Japan revealed by observational data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 52, e2025GL118631, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL118631, 2025. a
Wang, G., Cheng, L., Boyer, T., and Li, C.: Halosteric sea level changes during the Argo era, Water, 9, 484, https://doi.org/10.3390/w9070484, 2017. a
Wong, A., Keeley, R., and Carval, T., and the Argo Data Management Team: Argo Quality Control Manual for CTD and Trajectory Data, Version 3.7, Ifremer, https://doi.org/10.13155/33951, 2023. a
Zore-Armanda, M.: Les masses d’eau de la mer Adriatique, Acta Adriat., 10, 5–88, 1963. a
Zore-Armanda, M., Bone, M., Dadić, V., Morović, M., Ratković, D., Stojanoski, L., and Vukadin, I.: Hydrographic properties of the Adriatic Sea in the period from 1971 through 1983, Acta Adriat., 32, 1–547, 1991. a
Short summary
The Adriatic Sea has become warmer and saltier over the past two decades, and the change is fastest at depth: below 700 m it now warms about six times faster than the rest of the Mediterranean. Using 75 years of ship and float measurements, we show that salty layers at the sea surface became common after 2014 and that the salty intermediate water no longer sits at one depth. These changes may alter how oxygen and nutrients reach the deep sea.
The Adriatic Sea has become warmer and saltier over the past two decades, and the change is...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint