Articles | Volume 22, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-3245-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-3245-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Oct 2026
Research article |
| 21 Oct 2026
| 21 Oct 2026
AMOC weakening across latitude and time in CMIP6 future scenarios
National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK
School of Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
Jennifer Mecking
National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK
Robert Marsh
School of Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
Sybren Drijfhout
School of Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
Marilena Oltmanns
National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK
Department of Climate Sciences, Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven, Germany
Faculty of Physics and Electrical Engineering, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Alejandra Sanchez-Franks
National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2281, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2281, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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Baylor Fox-Kemper, Patricia DeRepentigny, Anne Marie Treguier, Christian Stepanek, Eleanor O'Rourke, Chloe Mackallah, Alberto Meucci, Yevgeny Aksenov, Paul J. Durack, Nicole Feldl, Oluwayemi Garuba, Vanessa Hernaman, Céline Heuzé, Doroteaciro Iovino, Gaurav Madan, André L. Marquez, François Massonnet, Jenny Mecking, Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Patrick C. Taylor, Wan-Ling Tseng, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 6043–6078, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6043-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6043-2026, 2026
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Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David I. Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, Henk A. Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura C. Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Bablu Sinha, Steven C. Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
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In this work, we draw on palaeo-records, observations, and modelling studies to review tipping points in the ocean overturning circulations, monsoon systems, and global atmospheric circulations. We find indications for tipping in the ocean overturning circulations and the West African monsoon, with potentially severe impacts on the Earth system and humans. Tipping in the other considered systems is regarded as conceivable but is currently not sufficiently supported by evidence.
Ligin Joseph, Nikolaos Skliris, Vishnu S., Dipanjan Dey, and Robert Marsh
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3886, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3886, 2025
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Peter M. F. Sheehan, Benjamin G. M. Webber, Alejandra Sanchez-Franks, and Bastien Y. Queste
Ocean Sci., 21, 1575–1588, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1575-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1575-2025, 2025
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Using measurements and computer models, we identify a large flux of oxygen within the Southwest Monsoon Current, which flows north into the Bay of Bengal between June and September each year. Oxygen levels in the bay are very low, but they are not quite low enough for key nutrient cycles to be as dramatically altered as in other low-oxygen regions. We suggest that the flux which we identify contributes to keeping oxygen levels in the bay above the threshold below which dramatic changes would occur.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3627–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, 2024
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We look at how compound flooding from the combination of river flooding and storm tides (storm surge and astronomical tide) may be changing over time due to climate change, with a case study of the Mekong River delta. We found that future compound flooding has the potential to flood the region more extensively and be longer lasting than compound floods today. This is useful to know because it means managers of deltas such as the Mekong can assess options for improving existing flood defences.
Helene Asbjørnsen, Tor Eldevik, Johanne Skrefsrud, Helen L. Johnson, and Alejandra Sanchez-Franks
Ocean Sci., 20, 799–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-799-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-799-2024, 2024
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The Gulf Stream system is essential for northward ocean heat transport. Here, we use observations along the path of the extended Gulf Stream system and an observationally constrained ocean model to investigate variability in the Gulf Stream system since the 1990s. We find regional differences in the variability between the subtropical, subpolar, and Nordic Seas regions, which warrants caution in using observational records at a single latitude to infer large-scale circulation change.
Harry Bryden, Jordi Beunk, Sybren Drijfhout, Wilco Hazeleger, and Jennifer Mecking
Ocean Sci., 20, 589–599, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-589-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-589-2024, 2024
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There is widespread interest in whether the Gulf Stream will decline under global warming. We analyse 19 coupled climate model projections of the AMOC over the 21st century. The model consensus is that the AMOC will decline by about 40 % due to reductions in northward Gulf Stream transport and southward deep western boundary current transport. Whilst the wind-driven Gulf Stream decreases by 4 Sv, most of the decrease in the Gulf Stream is due to a reduction of 7 Sv in its thermohaline component.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Robert J. Nicholls, and Nadia Bloemendaal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2475–2504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, 2023
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We used a novel database of simulated tropical cyclone tracks to explore whether typhoon-induced storm surges present a future flood risk to low-lying coastal communities around the South China Sea. We found that future climate change is likely to change tropical cyclone behaviour to an extent that this increases the severity and frequency of storm surges to Vietnam, southern China, and Thailand. Consequently, coastal flood defences need to be reviewed for resilience against this future hazard.
Guillaume Gastineau, Claude Frankignoul, Yongqi Gao, Yu-Chiao Liang, Young-Oh Kwon, Annalisa Cherchi, Rohit Ghosh, Elisa Manzini, Daniela Matei, Jennifer Mecking, Lingling Suo, Tian Tian, Shuting Yang, and Ying Zhang
The Cryosphere, 17, 2157–2184, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2157-2023, 2023
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Snow cover variability is important for many human activities. This study aims to understand the main drivers of snow cover in observations and models in order to better understand it and guide the improvement of climate models and forecasting systems. Analyses reveal a dominant role for sea surface temperature in the Pacific. Winter snow cover is also found to have important two-way interactions with the troposphere and stratosphere. No robust influence of the sea ice concentration is found.
Alan D. Fox, Patricia Handmann, Christina Schmidt, Neil Fraser, Siren Rühs, Alejandra Sanchez-Franks, Torge Martin, Marilena Oltmanns, Clare Johnson, Willi Rath, N. Penny Holliday, Arne Biastoch, Stuart A. Cunningham, and Igor Yashayaev
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Matthew Clark, Robert Marsh, and James Harle
Ocean Sci., 18, 549–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-549-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-549-2022, 2022
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Helen E. Phillips, Amit Tandon, Ryo Furue, Raleigh Hood, Caroline C. Ummenhofer, Jessica A. Benthuysen, Viviane Menezes, Shijian Hu, Ben Webber, Alejandra Sanchez-Franks, Deepak Cherian, Emily Shroyer, Ming Feng, Hemantha Wijesekera, Abhisek Chatterjee, Lisan Yu, Juliet Hermes, Raghu Murtugudde, Tomoki Tozuka, Danielle Su, Arvind Singh, Luca Centurioni, Satya Prakash, and Jerry Wiggert
Ocean Sci., 17, 1677–1751, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1677-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1677-2021, 2021
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Over the past decade, understanding of the Indian Ocean has progressed through new observations and advances in theory and models of the oceanic and atmospheric circulation. This review brings together new understanding of the ocean–atmosphere system in the Indian Ocean, describing Indian Ocean circulation patterns, air–sea interactions, climate variability, and the critical role of the Indian Ocean as a clearing house for anthropogenic heat.
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Short summary
The North Atlantic ocean circulation is expected to weaken due to climate change. First signs of weakening are expected in the subpolar north, reverberating equatorward over years to decades, with unfolding consequences for the climate of Europe and beyond. As the pattern of weakening may provide an early warning of several years, we scrutinise leading climate models to show that the location and degree of weakening strongly depends on the model type and extent of climate change.
The North Atlantic ocean circulation is expected to weaken due to climate change. First signs of...
