Articles | Volume 22, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-3245-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-3245-2026
Research article
 | 
21 Oct 2026
Research article |  | 21 Oct 2026

AMOC weakening across latitude and time in CMIP6 future scenarios

Harry Ashton-Key, Jennifer Mecking, Robert Marsh, Sybren Drijfhout, Marilena Oltmanns, and Alejandra Sanchez-Franks

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
AR by Harry Ashton-Key on behalf of the Authors (02 Jun 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (19 Jun 2026) by Sjoerd Groeskamp
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (13 Jul 2026)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (31 Jul 2026) by Sjoerd Groeskamp
AR by Harry Ashton-Key on behalf of the Authors (24 Sep 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (06 Oct 2026) by Sjoerd Groeskamp
AR by Harry Ashton-Key on behalf of the Authors (07 Oct 2026)  Author's response   Manuscript 
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Short summary
The North Atlantic ocean circulation is expected to weaken due to climate change. First signs of weakening are expected in the subpolar north, reverberating equatorward over years to decades, with unfolding consequences for the climate of Europe and beyond. As the pattern of weakening may provide an early warning of several years, we scrutinise leading climate models to show that the location and degree of weakening strongly depends on the model type and extent of climate change.
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