Articles | Volume 15, issue 6
Ocean Sci., 15, 1399–1418, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1399-2019
Ocean Sci., 15, 1399–1418, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1399-2019

Research article 07 Nov 2019

Research article | 07 Nov 2019

Extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea under climate change scenarios – Part 1: Model validation and sensitivity

Christian Dieterich et al.

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Cited articles

Ågren, J. and Svensson, R.: The Height System RH 2000 and the Land Uplift Model NKG2005LU, Mapp. Image Sci., 3, 4–12, 2011. a
Andersson, H. C.: Influence of long-term regional and large-scale atmospheric circulation on the Baltic sea level, Tellus A, 54, 76–88, 2002. a
Arneborg, L.: Comment on “Influence of sea level rise on the dynamics of salt inflows in the Baltic Sea” by R. Hordoir, L. Axell, U. Löptien, H. Dietze, and I. Kuznetsov, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 121, 2035–2040, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011451, 2016. a
Arns, A., Wahl, T., Haigh, I. D., Jensen, J., and Pattiaratchi, C.: Estimating extreme water level probabilities: A comparison of the direct methods and recommendations for best practise, Coast Eng., 81, 51–66, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.07.003, 2013. a
Averkiev, A. S. and Klevanny, K. A.: Determining cyclone trajectories and velocities leading to extreme sea level rises in the gulf of Finland, Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., 32, 514–519, https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373907080067, 2007. a
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We assess storm surges in the Baltic Sea and how they are represented in a regional climate model. We show how well different model formulations agree with each other and how this model uncertainty relates to observational uncertainty. With an ensemble of model solutions that represent today's climate, we show that this uncertainty is of the same size as the observational uncertainty. The second part of this study compares climate uncertainty with scenario uncertainty and natural variability.