Ocean Science
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Articles | Volume 15, issue 6
Articles | Volume 15, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1399-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1399-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 15, issue 6
Research article
 | 
07 Nov 2019
Research article |  | 07 Nov 2019

Extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea under climate change scenarios – Part 1: Model validation and sensitivity

Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Lars Arneborg, and Helén C. Andersson

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Short summary
We assess storm surges in the Baltic Sea and how they are represented in a regional climate model. We show how well different model formulations agree with each other and how this model uncertainty relates to observational uncertainty. With an ensemble of model solutions that represent today's climate, we show that this uncertainty is of the same size as the observational uncertainty. The second part of this study compares climate uncertainty with scenario uncertainty and natural variability.
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