Extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea under climate change scenarios –  Part 1: Model validation and sensitivity

Dieterich, Christian; Gröger, Matthias; Arneborg, Lars; Andersson, Helén C.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1399-2019

Articles | Volume 15, issue 6

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Articles | Volume 15, issue 6

https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1399-2019

Articles | Volume 15, issue 6

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Research article

07 Nov 2019

Research article |

| 07 Nov 2019

Extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea under climate change scenarios – Part 1: Model validation and sensitivity

Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Lars Arneborg, and Helén C. Andersson

Christian Dieterich

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR

christian.dieterich@smhi.se

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7086-4881

Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Folkborgsvägen 17, 601 76 Norrköping, Sweden

Matthias Gröger

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9927-5164

Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Folkborgsvägen 17, 601 76 Norrköping, Sweden

Lars Arneborg

Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Folkborgsvägen 17, 601 76 Norrköping, Sweden

Helén C. Andersson

Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Folkborgsvägen 17, 601 76 Norrköping, Sweden

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Total article views: 3,040 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML	PDF	XML	Total	Supplement	BibTeX	EndNote
2,048	900	92	3,040	209	96	108

HTML: 2,048
PDF: 900
XML: 92
Total: 3,040
Supplement: 209
BibTeX: 96
EndNote: 108

Views and downloads (calculated since 21 Jun 2019)

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 21 Jun 2019)

Total article views: 2,307 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML	PDF	XML	Total	Supplement	BibTeX	EndNote
1,719	510	78	2,307	209	82	90

HTML: 1,719
PDF: 510
XML: 78
Total: 2,307
Supplement: 209
BibTeX: 82
EndNote: 90

Views and downloads (calculated since 07 Nov 2019)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Nov 2019	117	31	1	149
Dec 2019	58	11	0	69
Jan 2020	36	20	4	60
Feb 2020	29	12	0	41
Mar 2020	24	8	0	32
Apr 2020	18	8	0	26
May 2020	20	12	0	32
Jun 2020	33	10	0	43
Jul 2020	72	26	17	115
Aug 2020	17	9	2	28
Sep 2020	29	9	0	38
Oct 2020	16	14	2	32
Nov 2020	6	9	2	17
Dec 2020	18	5	0	23
Jan 2021	25	8	1	34
Feb 2021	15	5	0	20
Mar 2021	22	6	1	29
Apr 2021	10	7	0	17
May 2021	17	6	1	24
Jun 2021	8	3	0	11
Jul 2021	7	4	0	11
Aug 2021	16	11	0	27
Sep 2021	19	14	0	33
Oct 2021	7	36	0	43
Nov 2021	13	17	1	31
Dec 2021	20	5	1	26
Jan 2022	18	12	1	31
Feb 2022	12	4	1	17
Mar 2022	21	5	0	26
Apr 2022	12	3	0	15
May 2022	14	7	0	21
Jun 2022	12	4	1	17
Jul 2022	9	3	0	12
Aug 2022	67	3	0	70
Sep 2022	53	2	0	55
Oct 2022	36	6	2	44
Nov 2022	12	3	0	15
Dec 2022	10	0	10
Jan 2023	20	4	0	24
Feb 2023	9	5	0	14
Mar 2023	23	12	0	35
Apr 2023	8	3	0	11
May 2023	8	4	0	12
Jun 2023	7	2	1	10
Jul 2023	9	5	1	15
Aug 2023	6	4	1	11
Sep 2023	15	10	3	28
Oct 2023	17	7	3	27
Nov 2023	6	3	0	9
Dec 2023	96	3	2	101
Jan 2024	7	2	0	9
Feb 2024	14	2	1	17
Mar 2024	16	10	2	28
Apr 2024	17	15	5	37
May 2024	18	7	2	27
Jun 2024	40	6	4	50
Jul 2024	285	8	4	297
Aug 2024	33	4	3	40
Sep 2024	19	7	2	28
Oct 2024	12	4	1	17
Nov 2024	19	3	1	23
Dec 2024	6	6	1	13
Jan 2025	18	7	0	25
Feb 2025	26	3	1	30
Mar 2025	17	6	2	25
Apr 2025	0

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 07 Nov 2019)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Nov 2019	117	31	1	149
Dec 2019	58	11	0	69
Jan 2020	36	20	4	60
Feb 2020	29	12	0	41
Mar 2020	24	8	0	32
Apr 2020	18	8	0	26
May 2020	20	12	0	32
Jun 2020	33	10	0	43
Jul 2020	72	26	17	115
Aug 2020	17	9	2	28
Sep 2020	29	9	0	38
Oct 2020	16	14	2	32
Nov 2020	6	9	2	17
Dec 2020	18	5	0	23
Jan 2021	25	8	1	34
Feb 2021	15	5	0	20
Mar 2021	22	6	1	29
Apr 2021	10	7	0	17
May 2021	17	6	1	24
Jun 2021	8	3	0	11
Jul 2021	7	4	0	11
Aug 2021	16	11	0	27
Sep 2021	19	14	0	33
Oct 2021	7	36	0	43
Nov 2021	13	17	1	31
Dec 2021	20	5	1	26
Jan 2022	18	12	1	31
Feb 2022	12	4	1	17
Mar 2022	21	5	0	26
Apr 2022	12	3	0	15
May 2022	14	7	0	21
Jun 2022	12	4	1	17
Jul 2022	9	3	0	12
Aug 2022	67	3	0	70
Sep 2022	53	2	0	55
Oct 2022	36	6	2	44
Nov 2022	12	3	0	15
Dec 2022	10	0	10
Jan 2023	20	4	0	24
Feb 2023	9	5	0	14
Mar 2023	23	12	0	35
Apr 2023	8	3	0	11
May 2023	8	4	0	12
Jun 2023	7	2	1	10
Jul 2023	9	5	1	15
Aug 2023	6	4	1	11
Sep 2023	15	10	3	28
Oct 2023	17	7	3	27
Nov 2023	6	3	0	9
Dec 2023	96	3	2	101
Jan 2024	7	2	0	9
Feb 2024	14	2	1	17
Mar 2024	16	10	2	28
Apr 2024	17	15	5	37
May 2024	18	7	2	27
Jun 2024	40	6	4	50
Jul 2024	285	8	4	297
Aug 2024	33	4	3	40
Sep 2024	19	7	2	28
Oct 2024	12	4	1	17
Nov 2024	19	3	1	23
Dec 2024	6	6	1	13
Jan 2025	18	7	0	25
Feb 2025	26	3	1	30
Mar 2025	17	6	2	25
Apr 2025	0

Total article views: 733 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML	PDF	XML	Total	BibTeX	EndNote
329	390	14	733	14	18

HTML: 329
PDF: 390
XML: 14
Total: 733
BibTeX: 14
EndNote: 18

Views and downloads (calculated since 21 Jun 2019)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Nov 2019	117	31	1	149
Dec 2019	58	11	0	69
Jan 2020	36	20	4	60
Feb 2020	29	12	0	41
Mar 2020	24	8	0	32
Apr 2020	18	8	0	26
May 2020	20	12	0	32
Jun 2020	33	10	0	43
Jul 2020	72	26	17	115
Aug 2020	17	9	2	28
Sep 2020	29	9	0	38
Oct 2020	16	14	2	32
Nov 2020	6	9	2	17
Dec 2020	18	5	0	23
Jan 2021	25	8	1	34
Feb 2021	15	5	0	20
Mar 2021	22	6	1	29
Apr 2021	10	7	0	17
May 2021	17	6	1	24
Jun 2021	8	3	0	11
Jul 2021	7	4	0	11
Aug 2021	16	11	0	27
Sep 2021	19	14	0	33
Oct 2021	7	36	0	43
Nov 2021	13	17	1	31
Dec 2021	20	5	1	26
Jan 2022	18	12	1	31
Feb 2022	12	4	1	17
Mar 2022	21	5	0	26
Apr 2022	12	3	0	15
May 2022	14	7	0	21
Jun 2022	12	4	1	17
Jul 2022	9	3	0	12
Aug 2022	67	3	0	70
Sep 2022	53	2	0	55
Oct 2022	36	6	2	44
Nov 2022	12	3	0	15
Dec 2022	10	0	10
Jan 2023	20	4	0	24
Feb 2023	9	5	0	14
Mar 2023	23	12	0	35
Apr 2023	8	3	0	11
May 2023	8	4	0	12
Jun 2023	7	2	1	10
Jul 2023	9	5	1	15
Aug 2023	6	4	1	11
Sep 2023	15	10	3	28
Oct 2023	17	7	3	27
Nov 2023	6	3	0	9
Dec 2023	96	3	2	101
Jan 2024	7	2	0	9
Feb 2024	14	2	1	17
Mar 2024	16	10	2	28
Apr 2024	17	15	5	37
May 2024	18	7	2	27
Jun 2024	40	6	4	50
Jul 2024	285	8	4	297
Aug 2024	33	4	3	40
Sep 2024	19	7	2	28
Oct 2024	12	4	1	17
Nov 2024	19	3	1	23
Dec 2024	6	6	1	13
Jan 2025	18	7	0	25
Feb 2025	26	3	1	30
Mar 2025	17	6	2	25
Apr 2025	0

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 21 Jun 2019)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Nov 2019	117	31	1	149
Dec 2019	58	11	0	69
Jan 2020	36	20	4	60
Feb 2020	29	12	0	41
Mar 2020	24	8	0	32
Apr 2020	18	8	0	26
May 2020	20	12	0	32
Jun 2020	33	10	0	43
Jul 2020	72	26	17	115
Aug 2020	17	9	2	28
Sep 2020	29	9	0	38
Oct 2020	16	14	2	32
Nov 2020	6	9	2	17
Dec 2020	18	5	0	23
Jan 2021	25	8	1	34
Feb 2021	15	5	0	20
Mar 2021	22	6	1	29
Apr 2021	10	7	0	17
May 2021	17	6	1	24
Jun 2021	8	3	0	11
Jul 2021	7	4	0	11
Aug 2021	16	11	0	27
Sep 2021	19	14	0	33
Oct 2021	7	36	0	43
Nov 2021	13	17	1	31
Dec 2021	20	5	1	26
Jan 2022	18	12	1	31
Feb 2022	12	4	1	17
Mar 2022	21	5	0	26
Apr 2022	12	3	0	15
May 2022	14	7	0	21
Jun 2022	12	4	1	17
Jul 2022	9	3	0	12
Aug 2022	67	3	0	70
Sep 2022	53	2	0	55
Oct 2022	36	6	2	44
Nov 2022	12	3	0	15
Dec 2022	10	0	10
Jan 2023	20	4	0	24
Feb 2023	9	5	0	14
Mar 2023	23	12	0	35
Apr 2023	8	3	0	11
May 2023	8	4	0	12
Jun 2023	7	2	1	10
Jul 2023	9	5	1	15
Aug 2023	6	4	1	11
Sep 2023	15	10	3	28
Oct 2023	17	7	3	27
Nov 2023	6	3	0	9
Dec 2023	96	3	2	101
Jan 2024	7	2	0	9
Feb 2024	14	2	1	17
Mar 2024	16	10	2	28
Apr 2024	17	15	5	37
May 2024	18	7	2	27
Jun 2024	40	6	4	50
Jul 2024	285	8	4	297
Aug 2024	33	4	3	40
Sep 2024	19	7	2	28
Oct 2024	12	4	1	17
Nov 2024	19	3	1	23
Dec 2024	6	6	1	13
Jan 2025	18	7	0	25
Feb 2025	26	3	1	30
Mar 2025	17	6	2	25
Apr 2025	0

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Show all Final revised paper only Preprint only

Total article views: 3,040 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 2,632 with geography defined and 408 with unknown origin.

Total article views: 2,307 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 2,075 with geography defined and 232 with unknown origin.

Total article views: 733 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 557 with geography defined and 176 with unknown origin.

Country	#	Views	%
United States of America	1	826	27
China	2	557	18
Germany	3	389	12
Sweden	4	104	3
Canada	5	61	2

Country	#	Views	%
United States of America	1	577	25
China	2	537	23
Germany	3	284	12
Sweden	4	81	3
undefined	5	49	2

Country	#	Views	%
United States of America	1	249	33
Germany	2	105	14
United Kingdom	3	23	3
Sweden	4	23	3
Canada	5	20	2


Total:	0
HTML:	0
PDF:	0
XML:	0

826


Total:	0
HTML:	0
PDF:	0
XML:	0

577


Total:	0
HTML:	0
PDF:	0
XML:	0

249

Cited

Show all Final revised paper only Preprint only

12 citations as recorded by crossref.

Application of the Probability of Extreme Sea Levels at Selected Baltic Sea Tide Gauge Stations T. Wolski et al. 10.3390/w17030291
Sea Level Projections From IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere Call for a New Climate Adaptation Strategy in the Skagerrak-Kattegat Seas J. Su et al. 10.3389/fmars.2021.629470
A Novel Machine Learning Based Bias Correction Method and Its Application to Sea Level in an Ensemble of Downscaled Climate Projections M. Hieronymus & F. Hieronymus 10.16993/tellusa.3216
Non-stationary analysis of water level extremes in Latvian waters, Baltic Sea, during 1961–2018 N. Kudryavtseva et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-1279-2021
Uncertainties and discrepancies in the representation of recent storm surges in a non-tidal semi-enclosed basin: a hindcast ensemble for the Baltic Sea M. Lorenz & U. Gräwe 10.5194/os-19-1753-2023
Higher quantiles of sea levels rise faster in Baltic Sea Climate projections C. Dieterich & H. Radtke 10.1007/s00382-023-07094-x
Coupled regional Earth system modeling in the Baltic Sea region M. Gröger et al. 10.5194/esd-12-939-2021
Is interactive air sea coupling relevant for simulating the future climate of Europe? M. Gröger et al. 10.1007/s00382-020-05489-8
Compound Flooding in Halmstad: Common Causes, Interannual Variability and the Effects of Climate Change M. Hieronymus et al. 10.16993/tellusa.4068
Sea Level Rise in Europe: Observations and projections A. Melet et al. 10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024
Atmospheric rivers in CMIP5 climate ensembles downscaled with a high-resolution regional climate model M. Gröger et al. 10.5194/esd-13-613-2022
Extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea under climate change scenarios – Part 1: Model validation and sensitivity C. Dieterich et al. 10.5194/os-15-1399-2019

11 citations as recorded by crossref.

Application of the Probability of Extreme Sea Levels at Selected Baltic Sea Tide Gauge Stations T. Wolski et al. 10.3390/w17030291
Sea Level Projections From IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere Call for a New Climate Adaptation Strategy in the Skagerrak-Kattegat Seas J. Su et al. 10.3389/fmars.2021.629470
A Novel Machine Learning Based Bias Correction Method and Its Application to Sea Level in an Ensemble of Downscaled Climate Projections M. Hieronymus & F. Hieronymus 10.16993/tellusa.3216
Non-stationary analysis of water level extremes in Latvian waters, Baltic Sea, during 1961–2018 N. Kudryavtseva et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-1279-2021
Uncertainties and discrepancies in the representation of recent storm surges in a non-tidal semi-enclosed basin: a hindcast ensemble for the Baltic Sea M. Lorenz & U. Gräwe 10.5194/os-19-1753-2023
Higher quantiles of sea levels rise faster in Baltic Sea Climate projections C. Dieterich & H. Radtke 10.1007/s00382-023-07094-x
Coupled regional Earth system modeling in the Baltic Sea region M. Gröger et al. 10.5194/esd-12-939-2021
Is interactive air sea coupling relevant for simulating the future climate of Europe? M. Gröger et al. 10.1007/s00382-020-05489-8
Compound Flooding in Halmstad: Common Causes, Interannual Variability and the Effects of Climate Change M. Hieronymus et al. 10.16993/tellusa.4068
Sea Level Rise in Europe: Observations and projections A. Melet et al. 10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024
Atmospheric rivers in CMIP5 climate ensembles downscaled with a high-resolution regional climate model M. Gröger et al. 10.5194/esd-13-613-2022

1 citations as recorded by crossref.

Extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea under climate change scenarios – Part 1: Model validation and sensitivity C. Dieterich et al. 10.5194/os-15-1399-2019

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Short summary

We assess storm surges in the Baltic Sea and how they are represented in a regional climate model. We show how well different model formulations agree with each other and how this model uncertainty relates to observational uncertainty. With an ensemble of model solutions that represent today's climate, we show that this uncertainty is of the same size as the observational uncertainty. The second part of this study compares climate uncertainty with scenario uncertainty and natural variability.

We assess storm surges in the Baltic Sea and how they are represented in a regional climate...