Articles | Volume 15, issue 6
Ocean Sci., 15, 1399–1418, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1399-2019
Ocean Sci., 15, 1399–1418, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1399-2019

Research article 07 Nov 2019

Research article | 07 Nov 2019

Extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea under climate change scenarios – Part 1: Model validation and sensitivity

Christian Dieterich et al.

Model code and software

NEMO-Nordic 3.3.1 for RCA4-NEMO Christian Dieterich https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2643477

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Short summary
We assess storm surges in the Baltic Sea and how they are represented in a regional climate model. We show how well different model formulations agree with each other and how this model uncertainty relates to observational uncertainty. With an ensemble of model solutions that represent today's climate, we show that this uncertainty is of the same size as the observational uncertainty. The second part of this study compares climate uncertainty with scenario uncertainty and natural variability.