Articles | Volume 22, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1439-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1439-2026
Research article
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08 May 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 08 May 2026

The Scotland–Canada overturning array (SCOTIA): twenty years of meridional overturning in the subpolar North Atlantic

Alan D. Fox, Neil J. Fraser, Kristin Burmeister, Sam C. Jones, Stuart A. Cunningham, Lewis A. Drysdale, Ahmad Fehmi Dilmahamod, and Johannes Karstensen

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Seasonality of meridional overturning in the subpolar North Atlantic: density flux as a metric for understanding the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
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Exceptional freshening and cooling in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic caused by reduced Labrador Sea surface heat loss
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Cited articles

Berglund, S., Döös, K., Groeskamp, S., and McDougall, T. J.: The downward spiralling nature of the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre, Nat. Commun., 13, 2000, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29607-8, 2022. a
Biastoch, A., Schwarzkopf, F. U., Getzlaff, K., Rühs, S., Martin, T., Scheinert, M., Schulzki, T., Handmann, P., Hummels, R., and Böning, C. W.: Regional imprints of changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in the eddy-rich ocean model VIKING20X, Ocean Sci., 17, 1177–1211, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1177-2021, 2021. a
Caesar, L., McCarthy, G. D., Thornalley, D. J., Cahill, N., and Rahmstorf, S.: Current Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakest in last millennium, Nat. Geosci., 14, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00699-z, 2021. a, b, c
Copernicus Marine Service: Global Ocean Gridded L4 Sea Surface Heights and Derived Variables Reprocessed 1993–Ongoing, Copernicus Marine Service [data set], https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00148 2025. a, b
Curry, R. G.: HYDROBASE : a database of hydrographic stations and tools for climatological analysis, Tech. rep., Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution [data set], https://doi.org/10.1575/1912/472, 1996. a
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Editorial statement
There is growing evidence that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is on course to reach a tipping point, a prospect that is increasingly shaping scientific, policy, and media discourse. Here, the authors double the length of the observed AMOC record in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre to cover 2004-2024. They find that the subpolar AMOC exhibited no weakening trend in that time. The methodology could provide a blueprint for a lightweight, reliable and sustainable subpolar AMOC observing system for the coming decades.
Short summary
The Atlantic ocean circulation that helps regulate climate is expected to weaken this century. Long-term measurements in the subtropics now show signs of weakening, but northern data are shorter and more variable. By combining several observing systems, we reconstructed northern circulation since 2004 and found strong ups and downs, but no clear long-term weakening so far.
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