Articles | Volume 22, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1439-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1439-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The Scotland–Canada overturning array (SCOTIA): twenty years of meridional overturning in the subpolar North Atlantic
Alan D. Fox
Scottish Association for Marine Science, Oban, UK
Scottish Association for Marine Science, Oban, UK
Kristin Burmeister
Scottish Association for Marine Science, Oban, UK
Sam C. Jones
Scottish Association for Marine Science, Oban, UK
Stuart A. Cunningham
Scottish Association for Marine Science, Oban, UK
Lewis A. Drysdale
Scottish Association for Marine Science, Oban, UK
Ahmad Fehmi Dilmahamod
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
Johannes Karstensen
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
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Kristin Burmeister, Sam C. Jones, Neil J. Fraser, Alan D. Fox, Stuart A. Cunningham, Lewis A. Drysdale, Mark E. Inall, Tiago S. Dotto, and N. Penny Holliday
Ocean Sci., 22, 167–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-167-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-167-2026, 2026
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The Rockall Trough carries two ocean currents vital for Europe’s climate. Using underwater sensors and robotic gliders we develop a new method to create the first decade-long record of these flows. We find that the North Atlantic Current drives most changes linked to wider ocean shifts while the slope current responds mainly to local winds. This work improves ocean monitoring and advances our understanding of climate-related changes.
Alan D. Fox, Neil J. Fraser, and Stuart A. Cunningham
Ocean Sci., 21, 1735–1760, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1735-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1735-2025, 2025
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Understanding the seasonality of the overturning circulation is important for mitigating the impacts of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) changes on European weather and climate. We examine the seasonal cycle in various common measures of overturning and find each to be dominated by different processes, not necessarily reflective of the processes driving overturning. We advocate for the use of a density flux measure as a valuable addition to understanding AMOC.
Sam C. Jones, Neil J. Fraser, Stuart A. Cunningham, Alan D. Fox, and Mark E. Inall
Ocean Sci., 19, 169–192, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-169-2023, 2023
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Warm water is transported from the tropical Atlantic towards western Europe and the Arctic. It loses heat to the atmosphere on the way, which strongly influences the climate. We construct a dataset encircling the North Atlantic basin north of 47° N. We calculate how and where heat enters and leaves the basin and how much cooling must happen in the interior. We find that cooling in the north-eastern Atlantic is a crucial step in controlling the conversion of water to higher densities.
Alan D. Fox, Patricia Handmann, Christina Schmidt, Neil Fraser, Siren Rühs, Alejandra Sanchez-Franks, Torge Martin, Marilena Oltmanns, Clare Johnson, Willi Rath, N. Penny Holliday, Arne Biastoch, Stuart A. Cunningham, and Igor Yashayaev
Ocean Sci., 18, 1507–1533, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1507-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1507-2022, 2022
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Observations of the eastern subpolar North Atlantic in the 2010s show exceptional freshening and cooling of the upper ocean, peaking in 2016 with the lowest salinities recorded for 120 years. Using results from a high-resolution ocean model, supported by observations, we propose that the leading cause is reduced surface cooling over the preceding decade in the Labrador Sea, leading to increased outflow of less dense water and so to freshening and cooling of the eastern subpolar North Atlantic.
Kristin Burmeister, Sam C. Jones, Neil J. Fraser, Alan D. Fox, Stuart A. Cunningham, Lewis A. Drysdale, Mark E. Inall, Tiago S. Dotto, and N. Penny Holliday
Ocean Sci., 22, 167–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-167-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-167-2026, 2026
Short summary
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The Rockall Trough carries two ocean currents vital for Europe’s climate. Using underwater sensors and robotic gliders we develop a new method to create the first decade-long record of these flows. We find that the North Atlantic Current drives most changes linked to wider ocean shifts while the slope current responds mainly to local winds. This work improves ocean monitoring and advances our understanding of climate-related changes.
Florian Schütte, Johannes Hahn, Ivy Frenger, Arne Bendinger, Ahmad Fehmi Dilmahamod, Marco Schulz, and Peter Brandt
Ocean Sci., 22, 119–143, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-119-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-119-2026, 2026
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We found extreme drops in oxygen levels in the tropical Atlantic linked to surprisingly long-lived, small subsurface eddies. These eddies are hidden beneath the surface (undetectable by satellites) and are unusually stable, even in the highly dynamic ocean near the equator. Using long-term measurements and computer models, we show that these features can strongly influence oxygen supply and potentially impact marine ecosystems.
Charly de Marez, Arne Bendinger, and Ahmad Fehmi Dilmahamod
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6055, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6055, 2025
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We use new satellite observations to reveal how ocean vortices features behave in the Labrador Sea. By comparing these features with ship measurements, we show that the satellite can reliably detect them even in regions close to the poles. Our results uncover clear patterns in their size, strength, and seasonal changes, providing a new insight of how the ocean moves heat and influences climate at high latitudes.
Maher Bouzaiene, Antonio Guarnieri, Damiano Delrosso, Ahmad F. Dilmahamod, Simona Simoncelli, and Claudia Fratianni
Ocean Sci., 21, 2643–2662, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2643-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2643-2025, 2025
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We analyze the geostrophic circulation and tidal effects in the Gulf of Gabès from 30 years of altimetry data (1993–2022) and the outputs of a high-resolution ocean model for the year 2022.
Donald A. Slater, Eleanor Johnstone, Martim Mas e Braga, Neil J. Fraser, Tom Cowton, and Mark Inall
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 7475–7500, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7475-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7475-2025, 2025
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Glacial fjords connect ice sheets to the ocean, controlling heat delivery to glaciers, which impacts ice sheet melt, and freshwater discharge to the ocean, affecting ocean circulation. However, their dynamics are not captured in large-scale climate models. We designed a simplified, computationally efficient model – FjordRPM – that accurately captures key fjord processes. It has direct applications for improving projections of ice melt, ocean circulation, and sea level rise.
Yan Barabinot, Sabrina Speich, Xavier Carton, Pierre L'Hégaret, Corentin Subirade, Rémi Laxenaire, and Johannes Karstensen
Ocean Sci., 21, 1849–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1849-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1849-2025, 2025
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Mesoscale eddies are rotating oceanic currents key to ocean variability. Off Brazil’s northeast coast, the North Brazil Current generates on average 4.5 eddies per year, which drift towards the West Indies, transporting waters from the Southern Hemisphere. Using data collected at sea by the EUREC4A-OA cruise, this study reveals that deep eddies transport 5 times more water than surface ones, reshaping our understanding of the regional water transport.
Alan D. Fox, Neil J. Fraser, and Stuart A. Cunningham
Ocean Sci., 21, 1735–1760, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1735-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1735-2025, 2025
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Understanding the seasonality of the overturning circulation is important for mitigating the impacts of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) changes on European weather and climate. We examine the seasonal cycle in various common measures of overturning and find each to be dominated by different processes, not necessarily reflective of the processes driving overturning. We advocate for the use of a density flux measure as a valuable addition to understanding AMOC.
Taavi Liblik, Daniel Rak, Enriko Siht, Germo Väli, Johannes Karstensen, Laura Tuomi, Louise C. Biddle, Madis-Jaak Lilover, Māris Skudra, Michael Naumann, Urmas Lips, and Volker Mohrholz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2272, 2024
Preprint archived
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Eight current meters were deployed to the seafloor across the Baltic to enhance knowledge about circulation and currents. The experiment was complemented by autonomous vehicles. Stable circulation patterns were observed at the sea when weather was steady. Strong and quite persistent currents were observed at the key passage for the deep-water renewal of the Northern Baltic Sea. Deep water renewal mostly occurs during spring and summer periods in the northern Baltic Sea.
Kristin Burmeister, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Willi Rath, Arne Biastoch, Peter Brandt, Joke F. Lübbecke, and Mark Inall
Ocean Sci., 20, 307–339, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-307-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-307-2024, 2024
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We apply two different forcing products to a high-resolution ocean model to investigate their impact on the simulated upper-current field in the tropical Atlantic. Where possible, we compare the simulated results to long-term observations. We find large discrepancies between the two simulations regarding the wind and current fields. We propose that long-term observations, once they have reached a critical length, need to be used to test the quality of wind-driven simulations.
Pierre L'Hégaret, Florian Schütte, Sabrina Speich, Gilles Reverdin, Dariusz B. Baranowski, Rena Czeschel, Tim Fischer, Gregory R. Foltz, Karen J. Heywood, Gerd Krahmann, Rémi Laxenaire, Caroline Le Bihan, Philippe Le Bot, Stéphane Leizour, Callum Rollo, Michael Schlundt, Elizabeth Siddle, Corentin Subirade, Dongxiao Zhang, and Johannes Karstensen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1801–1830, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1801-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1801-2023, 2023
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In early 2020, the EUREC4A-OA/ATOMIC experiment took place in the northwestern Tropical Atlantic Ocean, a dynamical region where different water masses interact. Four oceanographic vessels and a fleet of autonomous devices were deployed to study the processes at play and sample the upper ocean, each with its own observing capability. The article first describes the data calibration and validation and second their cross-validation, using a hierarchy of instruments and estimating the uncertainty.
Sam C. Jones, Neil J. Fraser, Stuart A. Cunningham, Alan D. Fox, and Mark E. Inall
Ocean Sci., 19, 169–192, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-169-2023, 2023
Short summary
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Warm water is transported from the tropical Atlantic towards western Europe and the Arctic. It loses heat to the atmosphere on the way, which strongly influences the climate. We construct a dataset encircling the North Atlantic basin north of 47° N. We calculate how and where heat enters and leaves the basin and how much cooling must happen in the interior. We find that cooling in the north-eastern Atlantic is a crucial step in controlling the conversion of water to higher densities.
Alan D. Fox, Patricia Handmann, Christina Schmidt, Neil Fraser, Siren Rühs, Alejandra Sanchez-Franks, Torge Martin, Marilena Oltmanns, Clare Johnson, Willi Rath, N. Penny Holliday, Arne Biastoch, Stuart A. Cunningham, and Igor Yashayaev
Ocean Sci., 18, 1507–1533, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1507-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1507-2022, 2022
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Observations of the eastern subpolar North Atlantic in the 2010s show exceptional freshening and cooling of the upper ocean, peaking in 2016 with the lowest salinities recorded for 120 years. Using results from a high-resolution ocean model, supported by observations, we propose that the leading cause is reduced surface cooling over the preceding decade in the Labrador Sea, leading to increased outflow of less dense water and so to freshening and cooling of the eastern subpolar North Atlantic.
Rainer Kiko, Marc Picheral, David Antoine, Marcel Babin, Léo Berline, Tristan Biard, Emmanuel Boss, Peter Brandt, Francois Carlotti, Svenja Christiansen, Laurent Coppola, Leandro de la Cruz, Emilie Diamond-Riquier, Xavier Durrieu de Madron, Amanda Elineau, Gabriel Gorsky, Lionel Guidi, Helena Hauss, Jean-Olivier Irisson, Lee Karp-Boss, Johannes Karstensen, Dong-gyun Kim, Rachel M. Lekanoff, Fabien Lombard, Rubens M. Lopes, Claudie Marec, Andrew M. P. McDonnell, Daniela Niemeyer, Margaux Noyon, Stephanie H. O'Daly, Mark D. Ohman, Jessica L. Pretty, Andreas Rogge, Sarah Searson, Masashi Shibata, Yuji Tanaka, Toste Tanhua, Jan Taucher, Emilia Trudnowska, Jessica S. Turner, Anya Waite, and Lars Stemmann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4315–4337, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4315-2022, 2022
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The term
marine particlescomprises detrital aggregates; fecal pellets; bacterioplankton, phytoplankton and zooplankton; and even fish. Here, we present a global dataset that contains 8805 vertical particle size distribution profiles obtained with Underwater Vision Profiler 5 (UVP5) camera systems. These data are valuable to the scientific community, as they can be used to constrain important biogeochemical processes in the ocean, such as the flux of carbon to the deep sea.
Léa Olivier, Jacqueline Boutin, Gilles Reverdin, Nathalie Lefèvre, Peter Landschützer, Sabrina Speich, Johannes Karstensen, Matthieu Labaste, Christophe Noisel, Markus Ritschel, Tobias Steinhoff, and Rik Wanninkhof
Biogeosciences, 19, 2969–2988, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2969-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2969-2022, 2022
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We investigate the impact of the interactions between eddies and the Amazon River plume on the CO2 air–sea fluxes to better characterize the ocean carbon sink in winter 2020. The region is a strong CO2 sink, previously underestimated by a factor of 10 due to a lack of data and understanding of the processes responsible for the variability in ocean carbon parameters. The CO2 absorption is mainly driven by freshwater from the Amazon entrained by eddies and by the winter seasonal cooling.
Jannes Koelling, Dariia Atamanchuk, Johannes Karstensen, Patricia Handmann, and Douglas W. R. Wallace
Biogeosciences, 19, 437–454, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-437-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-437-2022, 2022
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In this study, we investigate oxygen variability in the deep western boundary current in the Labrador Sea from multiyear moored records. We estimate that about half of the oxygen taken up in the interior Labrador Sea by air–sea gas exchange during deep water formation is exported southward the same year. Our results underline the complexity of the oxygen uptake and export in the Labrador Sea and highlight the important role this region plays in supplying oxygen to the deep ocean.
Gerhard Fischer, Oscar E. Romero, Johannes Karstensen, Karl-Heinz Baumann, Nasrollah Moradi, Morten Iversen, Götz Ruhland, Marco Klann, and Arne Körtzinger
Biogeosciences, 18, 6479–6500, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6479-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6479-2021, 2021
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Low-oxygen eddies in the eastern subtropical North Atlantic can form an oasis for phytoplankton growth. Here we report on particle flux dynamics at the oligotrophic Cape Verde Ocean Observatory. We observed consistent flux patterns during the passages of low-oxygen eddies. We found distinct flux peaks in late winter, clearly exceeding background fluxes. Our findings suggest that the low-oxygen eddies sequester higher organic carbon than expected for oligotrophic settings.
Tillys Petit, M. Susan Lozier, Simon A. Josey, and Stuart A. Cunningham
Ocean Sci., 17, 1353–1365, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1353-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1353-2021, 2021
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Recent work has highlighted the dominant role of the Irminger and Iceland basins in the production of North Atlantic Deep Water. From our analysis, we find that air–sea fluxes and the ocean surface density field are both key determinants of the buoyancy-driven transformation in the Iceland Basin. However, the spatial distribution of the subpolar mode water (SPMW) transformation is most sensitive to surface density changes as opposed to the direct influence of the air–sea fluxes.
Bjorn Stevens, Sandrine Bony, David Farrell, Felix Ament, Alan Blyth, Christopher Fairall, Johannes Karstensen, Patricia K. Quinn, Sabrina Speich, Claudia Acquistapace, Franziska Aemisegger, Anna Lea Albright, Hugo Bellenger, Eberhard Bodenschatz, Kathy-Ann Caesar, Rebecca Chewitt-Lucas, Gijs de Boer, Julien Delanoë, Leif Denby, Florian Ewald, Benjamin Fildier, Marvin Forde, Geet George, Silke Gross, Martin Hagen, Andrea Hausold, Karen J. Heywood, Lutz Hirsch, Marek Jacob, Friedhelm Jansen, Stefan Kinne, Daniel Klocke, Tobias Kölling, Heike Konow, Marie Lothon, Wiebke Mohr, Ann Kristin Naumann, Louise Nuijens, Léa Olivier, Robert Pincus, Mira Pöhlker, Gilles Reverdin, Gregory Roberts, Sabrina Schnitt, Hauke Schulz, A. Pier Siebesma, Claudia Christine Stephan, Peter Sullivan, Ludovic Touzé-Peiffer, Jessica Vial, Raphaela Vogel, Paquita Zuidema, Nicola Alexander, Lyndon Alves, Sophian Arixi, Hamish Asmath, Gholamhossein Bagheri, Katharina Baier, Adriana Bailey, Dariusz Baranowski, Alexandre Baron, Sébastien Barrau, Paul A. Barrett, Frédéric Batier, Andreas Behrendt, Arne Bendinger, Florent Beucher, Sebastien Bigorre, Edmund Blades, Peter Blossey, Olivier Bock, Steven Böing, Pierre Bosser, Denis Bourras, Pascale Bouruet-Aubertot, Keith Bower, Pierre Branellec, Hubert Branger, Michal Brennek, Alan Brewer, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Björn Brügmann, Stefan A. Buehler, Elmo Burke, Ralph Burton, Radiance Calmer, Jean-Christophe Canonici, Xavier Carton, Gregory Cato Jr., Jude Andre Charles, Patrick Chazette, Yanxu Chen, Michal T. Chilinski, Thomas Choularton, Patrick Chuang, Shamal Clarke, Hugh Coe, Céline Cornet, Pierre Coutris, Fleur Couvreux, Susanne Crewell, Timothy Cronin, Zhiqiang Cui, Yannis Cuypers, Alton Daley, Gillian M. Damerell, Thibaut Dauhut, Hartwig Deneke, Jean-Philippe Desbios, Steffen Dörner, Sebastian Donner, Vincent Douet, Kyla Drushka, Marina Dütsch, André Ehrlich, Kerry Emanuel, Alexandros Emmanouilidis, Jean-Claude Etienne, Sheryl Etienne-Leblanc, Ghislain Faure, Graham Feingold, Luca Ferrero, Andreas Fix, Cyrille Flamant, Piotr Jacek Flatau, Gregory R. Foltz, Linda Forster, Iulian Furtuna, Alan Gadian, Joseph Galewsky, Martin Gallagher, Peter Gallimore, Cassandra Gaston, Chelle Gentemann, Nicolas Geyskens, Andreas Giez, John Gollop, Isabelle Gouirand, Christophe Gourbeyre, Dörte de Graaf, Geiske E. de Groot, Robert Grosz, Johannes Güttler, Manuel Gutleben, Kashawn Hall, George Harris, Kevin C. Helfer, Dean Henze, Calvert Herbert, Bruna Holanda, Antonio Ibanez-Landeta, Janet Intrieri, Suneil Iyer, Fabrice Julien, Heike Kalesse, Jan Kazil, Alexander Kellman, Abiel T. Kidane, Ulrike Kirchner, Marcus Klingebiel, Mareike Körner, Leslie Ann Kremper, Jan Kretzschmar, Ovid Krüger, Wojciech Kumala, Armin Kurz, Pierre L'Hégaret, Matthieu Labaste, Tom Lachlan-Cope, Arlene Laing, Peter Landschützer, Theresa Lang, Diego Lange, Ingo Lange, Clément Laplace, Gauke Lavik, Rémi Laxenaire, Caroline Le Bihan, Mason Leandro, Nathalie Lefevre, Marius Lena, Donald Lenschow, Qiang Li, Gary Lloyd, Sebastian Los, Niccolò Losi, Oscar Lovell, Christopher Luneau, Przemyslaw Makuch, Szymon Malinowski, Gaston Manta, Eleni Marinou, Nicholas Marsden, Sebastien Masson, Nicolas Maury, Bernhard Mayer, Margarette Mayers-Als, Christophe Mazel, Wayne McGeary, James C. McWilliams, Mario Mech, Melina Mehlmann, Agostino Niyonkuru Meroni, Theresa Mieslinger, Andreas Minikin, Peter Minnett, Gregor Möller, Yanmichel Morfa Avalos, Caroline Muller, Ionela Musat, Anna Napoli, Almuth Neuberger, Christophe Noisel, David Noone, Freja Nordsiek, Jakub L. Nowak, Lothar Oswald, Douglas J. Parker, Carolyn Peck, Renaud Person, Miriam Philippi, Albert Plueddemann, Christopher Pöhlker, Veronika Pörtge, Ulrich Pöschl, Lawrence Pologne, Michał Posyniak, Marc Prange, Estefanía Quiñones Meléndez, Jule Radtke, Karim Ramage, Jens Reimann, Lionel Renault, Klaus Reus, Ashford Reyes, Joachim Ribbe, Maximilian Ringel, Markus Ritschel, Cesar B. Rocha, Nicolas Rochetin, Johannes Röttenbacher, Callum Rollo, Haley Royer, Pauline Sadoulet, Leo Saffin, Sanola Sandiford, Irina Sandu, Michael Schäfer, Vera Schemann, Imke Schirmacher, Oliver Schlenczek, Jerome Schmidt, Marcel Schröder, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Andrea Sealy, Christoph J. Senff, Ilya Serikov, Samkeyat Shohan, Elizabeth Siddle, Alexander Smirnov, Florian Späth, Branden Spooner, M. Katharina Stolla, Wojciech Szkółka, Simon P. de Szoeke, Stéphane Tarot, Eleni Tetoni, Elizabeth Thompson, Jim Thomson, Lorenzo Tomassini, Julien Totems, Alma Anna Ubele, Leonie Villiger, Jan von Arx, Thomas Wagner, Andi Walther, Ben Webber, Manfred Wendisch, Shanice Whitehall, Anton Wiltshire, Allison A. Wing, Martin Wirth, Jonathan Wiskandt, Kevin Wolf, Ludwig Worbes, Ethan Wright, Volker Wulfmeyer, Shanea Young, Chidong Zhang, Dongxiao Zhang, Florian Ziemen, Tobias Zinner, and Martin Zöger
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4067–4119, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4067-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4067-2021, 2021
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The EUREC4A field campaign, designed to test hypothesized mechanisms by which clouds respond to warming and benchmark next-generation Earth-system models, is presented. EUREC4A comprised roughly 5 weeks of measurements in the downstream winter trades of the North Atlantic – eastward and southeastward of Barbados. It was the first campaign that attempted to characterize the full range of processes and scales influencing trade wind clouds.
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Editorial statement
There is growing evidence that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is on course to reach a tipping point, a prospect that is increasingly shaping scientific, policy, and media discourse. Here, the authors double the length of the observed AMOC record in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre to cover 2004-2024. They find that the subpolar AMOC exhibited no weakening trend in that time. The methodology could provide a blueprint for a lightweight, reliable and sustainable subpolar AMOC observing system for the coming decades.
There is growing evidence that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is on...
Short summary
The Atlantic ocean circulation that helps regulate climate is expected to weaken this century. Long-term measurements in the subtropics now show signs of weakening, but northern data are shorter and more variable. By combining several observing systems, we reconstructed northern circulation since 2004 and found strong ups and downs, but no clear long-term weakening so far.
The Atlantic ocean circulation that helps regulate climate is expected to weaken this century....