Articles | Volume 21, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-93-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-93-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Jan 2025
Research article |
| 21 Jan 2025
| 21 Jan 2025
Long-term variability and trends in the Agulhas Leakage and its impacts on the global overturning
Hendrik Großelindemann
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Ocean Dynamics, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Kiel University, Kiel, Germany
Frederic S. Castruccio
US National Science Foundation, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Gokhan Danabasoglu
US National Science Foundation, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Arne Biastoch
Ocean Dynamics, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Kiel University, Kiel, Germany
Related authors
No articles found.
Colin Jones, Isaline Bossert, Donovan P. Dennis, Hazel Jeffery, Chris D. Jones, Torben Koenigk, Sina Loriani, Benjamin Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Manabu Abe, Sebastian Bathiany, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Patrica Cadule, Frederic S. Castruccio, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Andrea Dittus, Jonathan F. Donges, Friederike Fröb, Thomas Frölicher, Goran Georgievski, Chuncheng Guo, Aixue Hu, Peter Lawrence, Paul Lerner, José Licón-Saláiz, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Anastasia Romanou, Elena Shevliakova, Yona Silvy, Didier Swingedouw, Jerry Tjiputra, Jeremy Walton, Andy Wiltshire, Ricarda Winkelmann, Richard Wood, Tokuta Yokohata, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3604, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3604, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new Earth system model experiment protocol to help researchers understand how Earth might respond to positive, zero, and negative carbon emissions. This protocol enables different models to be compared following similar warming and cooling rates. Researchers use the models to explore how the Earth reacts to different climate futures, including the risk of tipping points being exceeded and whether changes can be reversed. The results will support improved long-term climate policy.
Yannick Wölker, Willi Rath, Matthias Renz, and Arne Biastoch
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2782, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2782, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a large current system that helps regulate Earth's climate. Monitoring the AMOC relies on fixed instruments anchored to the seafloor. This study explores in a high-resolution model whether data from Argo floats, autonomous drifters collecting hydrographic profiles, can be used to monitor the AMOC cost-effectively with the help of Machine Learning. Results suggest that Argo floats can extend AMOC monitoring beyond current fixed arrays.
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) is an international collaborative effort to systematically assess tipping point risks in the Earth system using state-of-the-art coupled and stand-alone domain models. TIPMIP will provide a first global atlas of potential tipping dynamics, respective critical thresholds and key uncertainties, generating an important building block towards a comprehensive scientific basis for policy- and decision-making.
Ingo Richter, Ping Chang, Ping-Gin Chiu, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Takeshi Doi, Dietmar Dommenget, Guillaume Gastineau, Zoe E. Gillett, Aixue Hu, Takahito Kataoka, Noel S. Keenlyside, Fred Kucharski, Yuko M. Okumura, Wonsun Park, Malte F. Stuecker, Andréa S. Taschetto, Chunzai Wang, Stephen G. Yeager, and Sang-Wook Yeh
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2587–2608, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2587-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2587-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical ocean basins influence each other through multiple pathways and mechanisms, referred to here as tropical basin interaction (TBI). Many researchers have examined TBI using comprehensive climate models but have obtained conflicting results. This may be partly due to differences in experiment protocols and partly due to systematic model errors. The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP) aims to address this problem by designing a set of TBI experiments that will be performed by multiple models.
Léo C. Aroucha, Joke F. Lübbecke, Peter Brandt, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, and Arne Biastoch
Ocean Sci., 21, 661–678, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-661-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-661-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The west African coastal region sustains highly productive fisheries and marine ecosystems influenced by sea surface temperature. We use oceanic models to show that the freshwater input from land to ocean strengthens a surface northward (southward) coastal current north (south) of the Congo River mouth, promoting a transfer of cooler (warmer) waters to north (south) of the Congo discharge location. We highlight the significant impact of river discharge on ocean temperatures and circulation.
Malcolm J. Roberts, Kevin A. Reed, Qing Bao, Joseph J. Barsugli, Suzana J. Camargo, Louis-Philippe Caron, Ping Chang, Cheng-Ta Chen, Hannah M. Christensen, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Ivy Frenger, Neven S. Fučkar, Shabeh ul Hasson, Helene T. Hewitt, Huanping Huang, Daehyun Kim, Chihiro Kodama, Michael Lai, Lai-Yung Ruby Leung, Ryo Mizuta, Paulo Nobre, Pablo Ortega, Dominique Paquin, Christopher D. Roberts, Enrico Scoccimarro, Jon Seddon, Anne Marie Treguier, Chia-Ying Tu, Paul A. Ullrich, Pier Luigi Vidale, Michael F. Wehner, Colin M. Zarzycki, Bosong Zhang, Wei Zhang, and Ming Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1307–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1307-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1307-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
HighResMIP2 is a model intercomparison project focusing on high-resolution global climate models, that is, those with grid spacings of 25 km or less in the atmosphere and ocean, using simulations of decades to a century in length. We are proposing an update of our simulation protocol to make the models more applicable to key questions for climate variability and hazard in present-day and future projections and to build links with other communities to provide more robust climate information.
Tobias Schulzki, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, and Arne Biastoch
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-571, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-571, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Exceptionally high ocean temperatures can cause long-lasting damage to marine ecosystems. Most existing knowledge about such temperature extremes is focused on near-surface waters, yet ecosystems also thrive at greater depths. In this study, we present a comprehensive analysis of temperature extremes across the entire Atlantic Ocean, from the surface to the seafloor. Our findings underscore the importance of the ocean circulation in driving extreme temperature events.
Kristin Burmeister, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Willi Rath, Arne Biastoch, Peter Brandt, Joke F. Lübbecke, and Mark Inall
Ocean Sci., 20, 307–339, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-307-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-307-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We apply two different forcing products to a high-resolution ocean model to investigate their impact on the simulated upper-current field in the tropical Atlantic. Where possible, we compare the simulated results to long-term observations. We find large discrepancies between the two simulations regarding the wind and current fields. We propose that long-term observations, once they have reached a critical length, need to be used to test the quality of wind-driven simulations.
Laura C. Jackson, Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo, Katinka Bellomo, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Helmuth Haak, Aixue Hu, Johann Jungclaus, Warren Lee, Virna L. Meccia, Oleg Saenko, Andrew Shao, and Didier Swingedouw
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1975–1995, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has an important impact on the climate. There are theories that freshening of the ocean might cause the AMOC to cross a tipping point (TP) beyond which recovery is difficult; however, it is unclear whether TPs exist in global climate models. Here, we outline a set of experiments designed to explore AMOC tipping points and sensitivity to additional freshwater input as part of the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project (NAHosMIP).
Torge Martin and Arne Biastoch
Ocean Sci., 19, 141–167, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-141-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-141-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
How is the ocean affected by continued Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss? We show in a systematic set of model experiments that atmospheric feedback needs to be accounted for as the large-scale ocean circulation is more than twice as sensitive to the meltwater otherwise. Coastal winds, boundary currents, and ocean eddies play a key role in redistributing the meltwater. Eddy paramterization helps the coarse simulation to perform better in the Labrador Sea but not in the North Atlantic Current region.
Alan D. Fox, Patricia Handmann, Christina Schmidt, Neil Fraser, Siren Rühs, Alejandra Sanchez-Franks, Torge Martin, Marilena Oltmanns, Clare Johnson, Willi Rath, N. Penny Holliday, Arne Biastoch, Stuart A. Cunningham, and Igor Yashayaev
Ocean Sci., 18, 1507–1533, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1507-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1507-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Observations of the eastern subpolar North Atlantic in the 2010s show exceptional freshening and cooling of the upper ocean, peaking in 2016 with the lowest salinities recorded for 120 years. Using results from a high-resolution ocean model, supported by observations, we propose that the leading cause is reduced surface cooling over the preceding decade in the Labrador Sea, leading to increased outflow of less dense water and so to freshening and cooling of the eastern subpolar North Atlantic.
Jörg Fröhle, Patricia V. K. Handmann, and Arne Biastoch
Ocean Sci., 18, 1431–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1431-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1431-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Three deep-water masses pass the southern exit of the Labrador Sea. Usually they are defined by explicit density intervals linked to the formation region. We evaluate this relation in an ocean model by backtracking the paths the water follows for 40 years: 48 % densify without contact to the atmosphere, 24 % densify in contact with the atmosphere, and 19 % are from the Nordic Seas. All three contribute to a similar density range at 53° N with weak specific formation location characteristics.
Stephen G. Yeager, Nan Rosenbloom, Anne A. Glanville, Xian Wu, Isla Simpson, Hui Li, Maria J. Molina, Kristen Krumhardt, Samuel Mogen, Keith Lindsay, Danica Lombardozzi, Will Wieder, Who M. Kim, Jadwiga H. Richter, Matthew Long, Gokhan Danabasoglu, David Bailey, Marika Holland, Nicole Lovenduski, Warren G. Strand, and Teagan King
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6451–6493, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6451-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth system changes over a range of time and space scales, and some of these changes are predictable in advance. Short-term weather forecasts are most familiar, but recent work has shown that it is possible to generate useful predictions several seasons or even a decade in advance. This study focuses on predictions over intermediate timescales (up to 24 months in advance) and shows that there is promising potential to forecast a variety of changes in the natural environment.
Takaya Uchida, Julien Le Sommer, Charles Stern, Ryan P. Abernathey, Chris Holdgraf, Aurélie Albert, Laurent Brodeau, Eric P. Chassignet, Xiaobiao Xu, Jonathan Gula, Guillaume Roullet, Nikolay Koldunov, Sergey Danilov, Qiang Wang, Dimitris Menemenlis, Clément Bricaud, Brian K. Arbic, Jay F. Shriver, Fangli Qiao, Bin Xiao, Arne Biastoch, René Schubert, Baylor Fox-Kemper, William K. Dewar, and Alan Wallcraft
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5829–5856, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5829-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5829-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean and climate scientists have used numerical simulations as a tool to examine the ocean and climate system since the 1970s. Since then, owing to the continuous increase in computational power and advances in numerical methods, we have been able to simulate increasing complex phenomena. However, the fidelity of the simulations in representing the phenomena remains a core issue in the ocean science community. Here we propose a cloud-based framework to inter-compare and assess such simulations.
Jens Zinke, Takaaki K. Watanabe, Siren Rühs, Miriam Pfeiffer, Stefan Grab, Dieter Garbe-Schönberg, and Arne Biastoch
Clim. Past, 18, 1453–1474, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1453-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1453-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Salinity is an important and integrative measure of changes to the water cycle steered by changes to the balance between rainfall and evaporation and by vertical and horizontal movements of water parcels by ocean currents. However, salinity measurements in our oceans are extremely sparse. To fill this gap, we have developed a 334-year coral record of seawater oxygen isotopes that reflects salinity changes in the globally important Agulhas Current system and reveals its main oceanic drivers.
Ioana Ivanciu, Katja Matthes, Arne Biastoch, Sebastian Wahl, and Jan Harlaß
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 139–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-139-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase, while the Antarctic ozone hole is expected to recover during the twenty-first century. We separate the effects of ozone recovery and of greenhouse gases on the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric and oceanic circulation, and we find that ozone recovery is generally reducing the impact of greenhouse gases, with the exception of certain regions of the stratosphere during spring, where the two effects reinforce each other.
Keith B. Rodgers, Sun-Seon Lee, Nan Rosenbloom, Axel Timmermann, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Clara Deser, Jim Edwards, Ji-Eun Kim, Isla R. Simpson, Karl Stein, Malte F. Stuecker, Ryohei Yamaguchi, Tamás Bódai, Eui-Seok Chung, Lei Huang, Who M. Kim, Jean-François Lamarque, Danica L. Lombardozzi, William R. Wieder, and Stephen G. Yeager
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1393–1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1393-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1393-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A large ensemble of simulations with 100 members has been conducted with the state-of-the-art CESM2 Earth system model, using historical and SSP3-7.0 forcing. Our main finding is that there are significant changes in the variance of the Earth system in response to anthropogenic forcing, with these changes spanning a broad range of variables important to impacts for human populations and ecosystems.
Arne Biastoch, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Klaus Getzlaff, Siren Rühs, Torge Martin, Markus Scheinert, Tobias Schulzki, Patricia Handmann, Rebecca Hummels, and Claus W. Böning
Ocean Sci., 17, 1177–1211, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1177-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1177-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) quantifies the impact of the ocean on climate and climate change. Here we show that a high-resolution ocean model is able to realistically simulate ocean currents. While the mean representation of the AMOC depends on choices made for the model and on the atmospheric forcing, the temporal variability is quite robust. Comparing the ocean model with ocean observations, we able to identify that the AMOC has declined over the past two decades.
Christina Schmidt, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Siren Rühs, and Arne Biastoch
Ocean Sci., 17, 1067–1080, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1067-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1067-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We estimate Agulhas leakage, water flowing from the Indian Ocean to the South Atlantic, in an ocean model with two different tools. The mean transport, variability and trend of Agulhas leakage is simulated comparably with both tools, emphasising the robustness of our method. If the experiments are designed differently, the mean transport of Agulhas leakage is altered, but not the trend. Agulhas leakage waters cool and become less salty south of Africa resulting in a density increase.
Ioana Ivanciu, Katja Matthes, Sebastian Wahl, Jan Harlaß, and Arne Biastoch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5777–5806, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5777-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ozone hole has driven substantial dynamical changes in the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere over the past decades. This study separates the historical impacts of ozone depletion from those of rising levels of greenhouse gases and investigates how these impacts are captured in two types of climate models: one using interactive atmospheric chemistry and one prescribing the CMIP6 ozone field. The effects of ozone depletion are more pronounced in the model with interactive chemistry.
James Keeble, Birgit Hassler, Antara Banerjee, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gabriel Chiodo, Sean Davis, Veronika Eyring, Paul T. Griffiths, Olaf Morgenstern, Peer Nowack, Guang Zeng, Jiankai Zhang, Greg Bodeker, Susannah Burrows, Philip Cameron-Smith, David Cugnet, Christopher Danek, Makoto Deushi, Larry W. Horowitz, Anne Kubin, Lijuan Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Sungsu Park, Øyvind Seland, Jens Stoll, Karl-Hermann Wieners, and Tongwen Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5015–5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system; changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. We evaluate changes to these species from 1850 to 2100 in the new generation of CMIP6 models. There is good agreement between the multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual models. The future evolution of both ozone and water vapour is strongly dependent on the assumed future emissions scenario.
Josefine Maas, Susann Tegtmeier, Yue Jia, Birgit Quack, Jonathan V. Durgadoo, and Arne Biastoch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4103–4121, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4103-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4103-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Cooling-water disinfection at coastal power plants is a known source of atmospheric bromoform. A large source of anthropogenic bromoform is the industrial regions in East Asia. In current bottom-up flux estimates, these anthropogenic emissions are missing, underestimating the global air–sea flux of bromoform. With transport simulations, we show that by including anthropogenic bromoform from cooling-water treatment, the bottom-up flux estimates significantly improve in East and Southeast Asia.
Shaoqing Zhang, Haohuan Fu, Lixin Wu, Yuxuan Li, Hong Wang, Yunhui Zeng, Xiaohui Duan, Wubing Wan, Li Wang, Yuan Zhuang, Hongsong Meng, Kai Xu, Ping Xu, Lin Gan, Zhao Liu, Sihai Wu, Yuhu Chen, Haining Yu, Shupeng Shi, Lanning Wang, Shiming Xu, Wei Xue, Weiguo Liu, Qiang Guo, Jie Zhang, Guanghui Zhu, Yang Tu, Jim Edwards, Allison Baker, Jianlin Yong, Man Yuan, Yangyang Yu, Qiuying Zhang, Zedong Liu, Mingkui Li, Dongning Jia, Guangwen Yang, Zhiqiang Wei, Jingshan Pan, Ping Chang, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Stephen Yeager, Nan Rosenbloom, and Ying Guo
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4809–4829, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4809-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4809-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Science advancement and societal needs require Earth system modelling with higher resolutions that demand tremendous computing power. We successfully scale the 10 km ocean and 25 km atmosphere high-resolution Earth system model to a new leading-edge heterogeneous supercomputer using state-of-the-art optimizing methods, promising the solution of high spatial resolution and time-varying frequency. Corresponding technical breakthroughs are of significance in modelling and HPC design communities.
Eric P. Chassignet, Stephen G. Yeager, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Alexandra Bozec, Frederic Castruccio, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Christopher Horvat, Who M. Kim, Nikolay Koldunov, Yiwen Li, Pengfei Lin, Hailong Liu, Dmitry V. Sein, Dmitry Sidorenko, Qiang Wang, and Xiaobiao Xu
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4595–4637, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4595-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4595-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents global comparisons of fundamental global climate variables from a suite of four pairs of matched low- and high-resolution ocean and sea ice simulations to assess the robustness of climate-relevant improvements in ocean simulations associated with moving from coarse (∼1°) to eddy-resolving (∼0.1°) horizontal resolutions. Despite significant improvements, greatly enhanced horizontal resolution does not deliver unambiguous bias reduction in all regions for all models.
Cited articles
Anderson, D. L. and Killworth, P. D.: Spin-up of a stratified ocean, with topography, Deep-Sea Res., 24, 709–732, https://doi.org/10.1016/0146-6291(77)90495-7, 1977. a
Arumí-Planas, C., Dong, S., Perez, R., Harrison, M. J., Farneti, R., and Hernández-Guerra, A.: A Multi-Data Set Analysis of the Freshwater Transport by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at Nominally 34.5° S, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 129, e2023J020C558, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JC020558, 2024. a, b
Beal, L. M., Ruijter, W. P. D., Biastoch, A., Zahn, R., Cronin, M., Hermes, J., Lutjeharms, J., Quartly, G., Tozuka, T., Baker-Yeboah, S., Bornman, T., Cipollini, P., Dijkstra, H., Hall, I., Park, W., Peeters, F., Penven, P., Ridderinkhof, H., and Zinke, J.: On the role of the Agulhas system in ocean circulation and climate, Nature, 472, 429–436, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09983, 2011. a, b, c, d
Beal, L. M., Elipot, S., Houk, A., and Leber, G. M.: Capturing the transport variability of a western boundary jet: Results from the Agulhas Current time-series experiment (ACT), J. Phys. Oceanogr., 45, 1302–1324, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-14-0119.1, 2015. a, b, c
Beech, N., Rackow, T., Semmler, T., Danilov, S., Wang, Q., and Jung, T.: Long-term evolution of ocean eddy activity in a warming world, Nat. Clim. Change, 12, 910–917, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01478-3, 2022. a, b
Biastoch, A., Böning, C. W., and Lutjeharms, J. R.: Agulhas leakage dynamics affects decadal variability in Atlantic overturning circulation, Nature, 456, 489–492, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07426, 2008. a, b
Biastoch, A., Böning, C. W., Schwarzkopf, F. U., and Lutjeharms, J. R.: Increase in Agulhas leakage due to poleward shift of Southern Hemisphere westerlies, Nature, 462, 495–498, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08519, 2009. a, b
Biastoch, A., Durgadoo, J. V., Morrison, A. K., van Sebille, E., Weijer, W., and Griffies, S. M.: Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation covaries with Agulhas leakage, Nat. Commun., 6, 10082, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10082, 2015. a
Boers, N.: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 680–688, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01097-4, 2021. a
Boulton, C. A., Allison, L. C., and Lenton, T. M.: Early warning signals of atlantic meridional overturning circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model, Nat. Commun., 5, 5752, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms6752, 2014. a
Cai, W.: Antarctic ozone depletion causes an intensification of the Southern Ocean super-gyre circulation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, 1–4, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024911, 2006. a, b
Castruccio, F., Chang, P., Danabasoglu, G., Fu, D., Rosenbloom, N., Zhang, Q., King, T., and Liu, X.: MESACLIP: A 10-member ensemble of CESM HR historical (1920–2005) simulations, Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Computational and Information Systems Laboratory [data set], Boulder, CO, https://doi.org/10.5065/7N1X-K278, 2024a. a
Castruccio, F., Chang, P., Danabasoglu, G., Fu, D., Rosenbloom, N., Zhang, Q., King, T., and Liu, X.: MESACLIP: A 10-member ensemble of CESM HR RCP 8.5 (2006–2100) simulations, Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Computational and Information Systems Laboratory [data set], Boulder CO, https://doi.org/10.5065/PNCR-5S34, 2024b. a
Castruccio, F., Chang, P., Danabasoglu, G., Fu, D., Rosenbloom, N., Zhang, Q., King, T., and Liu, X.: MESACLIP: A 500-year CESM HR pre-industrial control simulation forced with perpetual 1850 conditions, Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Computational and Information Systems Laboratory [data set], Boulder CO, https://doi.org/10.5065/2K6J-SB78, 2025. a
Chang, P., Zhang, S., Danabasoglu, G., Yeager, S. G., Fu, H., Wang, H., Castruccio, F. S., Chen, Y., Edwards, J., Fu, D., Jia, Y., Laurindo, L. C., Liu, X., Rosenbloom, N., Small, R. J., Xu, G., Zeng, Y., Zhang, Q., Bacmeister, J., Bailey, D. A., Duan, X., DuVivier, A. K., Li, D., Li, Y., Neale, R., Stössel, A., Wang, L., Zhuang, Y., Baker, A., Bates, S., Dennis, J., Diao, X., Gan, B., Gopal, A., Jia, D., Jing, Z., Ma, X., Saravanan, R., Strand, W. G., Tao, J., Yang, H., Wang, X., Wei, Z., and Wu, L.: An unprecedented set of high-resolution earth system simulations for understanding multiscale interactions in climate variability and change, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2020MS002298, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002298, 2020. a, b, c, d, e
Cheng, W., Weijer, W., Kim, W. M., Danabasoglu, G., Yeager, S. G., Gent, P. R., Zhang, D., Chiang, J. C., and Zhang, J.: Can the salt-advection feedback be detected in internal variability of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation?, J. Climate, 31, 6649–6667, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0825.1, 2018. a
Cheng, Y., Putrasahan, D., Beal, L., and Kirtman, B.: Quantifying Agulhas Leakage in a high-resolution climate model, J. Climate, 29, 6881–6892, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0568.1, 2016. a
CMEMS: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation AMOC timeseries at 26N from Reanalysis, https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00232, 2023. a
Daher, H., Beal, L. M., and Schwarzkopf, F. U.: A new improved estimation of Agulhas Leakage using observations and simulations of Lagrangian floats and drifters, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 125, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015753, 2020. a, b, c
Danabasoglu, G., Bates, S. C., Briegleb, B. P., Jayne, S. R., Jochum, M., Large, W. G., Peacock, S., and Yeager, S. G.: The CCSM4 ocean component, J. Climate, 25, 1361–1389, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00091.1, 2012. a
Delandmeter, P. and van Sebille, E.: The Parcels v2.0 Lagrangian framework: new field interpolation schemes, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3571–3584, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3571-2019, 2019. a, b
Dencausse, G., Arhan, M., and Speich, S.: Routes of Agulhas rings in the southeastern Cape Basin, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. I, 57, 1406–1421, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr.2010.07.008, 2010. a
Deshayes, J., Tréguier, A.-M., Barnier, B., Lecointre, A., Sommer, J. L., Molines, J.-M., Penduff, T., Bourdallé-Badie, R., Drillet, Y., Garric, G., Benshila, R., Madec, G., Biastoch, A., Böning, C. W., Scheinert, M., Coward, A. C., and Hirschi, J. J.: Oceanic hindcast simulations at high resolution suggest that the Atlantic MOC is bistable, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3069–3073, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50534, 2013. a
DiNezio, P. N., Gramer, L. J., Johns, W. E., Meinen, C. S., and Baringer, M. O.: Observed interannual variability of the Florida current: Wind forcing and the North Atlantic Oscillation, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 39, 721–736, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JPO4001.1, 2009. a, b
Durgadoo, J. V., Loveday, B. R., Reason, C. J. C., Penven, P., and Biastoch, A.: Agulhas Leakage predominantly responds to the southern hemisphere westerlies, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 43, 2113–2131, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-13-047.1, 2013. a, b
Durgadoo, J. V., Rühs, S., Biastoch, A., and Böning, C. W. B.: Indian Ocean sources of Agulhas leakage, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 122, 3481–3499, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC012676, 2017. a, b
Gordon, A. L.: Interocean exchange of thermocline water, J. Geophys. Res., 91, 5037, https://doi.org/10.1029/JC091iC04p05037, 1986. a
Gordon, A. L., Bosley, K. T., and Aikman, F.: Tropical atlantic water within the Benguela upwelling system at 27° S, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. I, 42, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1016/0967-0637(94)00032-N, 1995. a
Grosselindemann, H., Castruccio, F., Danabasoglu, G., and Biastoch, A.: Supplementary data to Grosselindemann et al. (2024): Long-term Variability and Trends of Agulhas Leakage and its Impacts on the Global Overturning, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel [data set], https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12085/f10e76e5-0e1e-4dee-95b5-45d6275eb144, 2024. a
Holton, L., Deshayes, J., Backeberg, B. C., Loveday, B. R., Hermes, J. C., and Reason, C. J. C.: Spatio-temporal characteristics of Agulhas leakage: a model inter-comparison study, Clim. Dynam., 48, 2107–2121, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3193-5, 2017. a, b, c
Hu, A., Meehl, G. A., Rosenbloom, N., Molina, M. J., and Strand, W. G.: The influence of variability in meridional overturning on global ocean circulation, J. Climate, 34, 7697–7716, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0119.1, 2021. a, b
Hunke, E. C. and Lipscomb, W. H.: CICE: the Los Alamos sea ice model user's manual, version 4, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Tech. Rep., https://www.researchgate.net/publication/237249046 (last access: 20 December 2024), 2008. a
Jüling, A., Zhang, X., Castellana, D., von der Heydt, A. S., and Dijkstra, H. A.: The Atlantic's freshwater budget under climate change in the Community Earth System Model with strongly eddying oceans, Ocean Sci., 17, 729–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-729-2021, 2021. a, b
Kehl, C., Nooteboom, P. D., Kaandorp, M. L., and van Sebille, E.: Efficiently simulating Lagrangian particles in large-scale ocean flows – Data structures and their impact on geophysical applications, Comput. Geosci., 175, 105322, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2023.105322, 2023. a
Lawrence, D. M., Oleson, K. W., Flanner, M. G., Thornton, P. E., Swenson, S. C., Lawrence, P. J., Zeng, X., Yang, Z.-L., Levis, S., Sakaguchi, K., Bonan, G. B., and Slater, A. G.: Parameterization improvements and functional and structural advances in Version 4 of the Community Land Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 3, 1–27, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011ms000045, 2011. a
Le Bars, D., Dijkstra, H. A., and De Ruijter, W. P. M.: Impact of the Indonesian Throughflow on Agulhas leakage, Ocean Sci., 9, 773–785, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-773-2013, 2013. a
Li, J., Roughan, M., and Kerry, C.: Drivers of ocean warming in the western boundary currents of the Southern Hemisphere, Nat. Clim. Change, 12, 901–909, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01473-8, 2022. a
Liu, W., Xie, S.-P., Liu, Z., and Zhu, J.: Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate, Science Advances, 3, e1601666, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601666, 2017. a
Lohmann, J., Dijkstra, H. A., Jochum, M., Lucarini, V., and Ditlevsen, P. D.: Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation, Science Advances, 10, 4253, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adi4253, 2024. a
Loveday, B. R., Durgadoo, J. V., Reason, C. J., Biastoch, A., and Penven, P.: Decoupling of the Agulhas leakage from the Agulhas Current, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 44, 1776–1797, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-13-093.1, 2014. a, b
Makarim, S., Sprintall, J., Liu, Z., Yu, W., Santoso, A., Yan, X. H., and Susanto, R. D.: Previously unidentified Indonesian Throughflow pathways and freshening in the Indian Ocean during recent decades, Sci. Rep.-UK, 9, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-43841-z, 2019. a
Meehl, G. A., Yang, D., Arblaster, J. M., Bates, S. C., Rosenbloom, N., Neale, R., Bacmeister, J., Lauritzen, P. H., Bryan, F., Small, J., Truesdale, J., Hannay, C., Shields, C., Strand, W. G., Dennis, J., and Danabasoglu, G.: Effects of model resolution, physics, and coupling on southern hemisphere storm tracks in CESM1.3, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 12408–12416, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084057, 2019. a
Mertz, F., Rosmorduc, V., Maheu, C., and Faugere, Y.: For sea level SLA products, Copernicus Marine Service, 1, 1–51, 2017. a
Moat, B., Smeed, D., Rayner, D., Johns, W., Smith, R., Volkov, D., Baringer, M., and Collins, J.: Atlantic meridional overturning circulation observed by the RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS (RAPID-Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array-Western Boundary Time Series) array at 26N from 2004 to 2022 (v2022.1), https://doi.org/10.5285/04c79ece-3186-349a-e063-6c86abc0158c, 2023. a
Morrow, R., Ward, M. L., Hogg, A. M., and Pasquet, S.: Eddy response to Southern Ocean climate modes, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 115, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JC005894, 2010. a
Neale, R. B., Gettelman, A., Park, S., Chen, C.-C., Lauritzen, P. H., Williamson, D. L., Conley, A. J., Kinnison, D., Marsh, D., Smith, A. K., Vitt, F. M., Garcia, R., Lamarque, J.-F., Mills, M. J., Tilmes, S., Morrison, H., Cameron-Smith, P., Collins, W. D., Iacono, M. J., Easter, R. C., Ghan, S. J., Liu, X., Rasch, P. J., and Taylor, M. A.: Description of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5.0), NCAR/TN-486, 2012. a
Olson, D. B. and Evans, R. H.: Rings of the Agulhas current, Deep-Sea Res., 33, 27–42, https://doi.org/10.1016/0198-0149(86)90106-8, 1986. a, b, c
Osychny, V. and Cornillon, P.: Properties of Rossby waves in the North Atlantic estimated from satellite data, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 34, 61–76, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(2004)034<0061:PORWIT>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a
Phillips, A. S., Deser, C., and Fasullo, J.: Evaluating modes of variability in climate models, Eos T. Am. Geophys. Un., 95, 453–455, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EO490002, 2014. a
Rahmstorf, S.: On the freshwater forcing and transport of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Clim. Dynam., 12, 799–811, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050144, 1996. a, b, c, d
Roberts, M. J., Jackson, L. C., Roberts, C. D., Meccia, V., Docquier, D., Koenigk, T., Ortega, P., Moreno-Chamarro, E., Bellucci, A., Coward, A., Drijfhout, S., Exarchou, E., Gutjahr, O., Hewitt, H., Iovino, D., Lohmann, K., Putrasahan, D., Schiemann, R., Seddon, J., Terray, L., Xu, X., Zhang, Q., Chang, P., Yeager, S. G., Castruccio, F. S., Zhang, S., and Wu, L.: Sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to model resolution in CMIP6 HighResMIP simulations and implications for future changes, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002014, 2020. a
Rühs, S., Schwarzkopf, F. U., Speich, S., and Biastoch, A.: Cold vs. warm water route – sources for the upper limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation revisited in a high-resolution ocean model, Ocean Sci., 15, 489–512, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-489-2019, 2019. a
Rühs, S., Schmidt, C., Schubert, R., Schulzki, T. G., Schwarzkopf, F. U., Bars, D. L., and Biastoch, A.: Robust estimates for the decadal evolution of Agulhas leakage from the 1960s to the 2010s, Communications Earth and Environment, 3, 318, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00643-y, 2022. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Sanchez-Franks, A., Frajka-Williams, E., Moat, B. I., and Smeed, D. A.: A dynamically based method for estimating the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26° N from satellite altimetry, Ocean Sci., 17, 1321–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1321-2021, 2021. a
Schmid, C., Boebel, O., Zenk, W., Lutjeharms, J. R., Garzoli, S. L., Richardson, P. L., and Barron, C.: Early evolution of an Agulhas Ring, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II, 50, 141–166, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0967-0645(02)00382-X, 2003. a
Schmidt, C., Schwarzkopf, F. U., Rühs, S., and Biastoch, A.: Characteristics and robustness of Agulhas leakage estimates: an inter-comparison study of Lagrangian methods, Ocean Sci., 17, 1067–1080, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1067-2021, 2021. a, b, c, d
Schouten, M. W., Ruijter, W. P. D., van Leeuwen, P. J., and Lutjeharms, J. R.: Translation, decay and splitting of Agulhas rings in the southeastern Atlantic Ocean, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 105, 21913–21925, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999jc000046, 2000. a
Schubert, R., Gula, J., and Biastoch, A.: Submesoscale flows impact Agulhas leakage in ocean simulations, Communications Earth and Environment, 2, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00271-y, 2021. a
Schulzki, T., Schwarzkopf, F. U., and Biastoch, A.: Atlantic meridional overturning response to increased Southern Ocean wind stress in a climate model with an eddy-rich ocean, J. Climate, 37, 5769–5792, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-23-0727.1, 2024. a, b, c
Smith, R., Jones, P., Briegleb, B., Bryan, F., Danabasoglu, G., Dennis, J., Dukowicz, J., Eden, C., Fox-Kemper, B., Gent, P., Hecht, M., Jayne, S., Jochum, M., Large, W., Lindsay, K., Maltrud, M., Norton, N., Peacock, S., Vertenstein, M., and Yeager, S.: The parallel ocean program (POP) reference manual ocean component of the community climate system model (CCSM) and community earth system model (CESM), LAUR-01853, 141, 1–140, https://www2.cesm.ucar.edu/models/cesm1.0/pop2/doc/sci/POPRefManual.pdf (last access: 20 December 2024), 2010. a
Speich, S., Blanke, B., and Cai, W.: Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the Southern Hemisphere supergyre, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, 1–5, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031583, 2007. a
Speich, S., Rusciano, E., and Faure, V.: GOODHOPE/SAMOC, World, 29, 3, https://www.coriolis.eu.org/Science2/Atlantic-Ocean/GOODHOPE-SAMOC (last access: 20 December 2024), 2023. a
Stommel, H.: Thermohaline convection with two stable regimes of flow, Tellus, 13, 224–230, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v13i2.9491, 1961. a
Sverdrup, H. U.: Wind-driven currents in a baroclinic ocean; with application to the equatorial currents of the eastern Pacific, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 33, 318–326, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.33.11.318, 1947. a
Thompson, D. W. J. and Wallace, J. M.: Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part I: Month-to-month variability, J. Climate, 13, 1000–1016, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1000:AMITEC>2.0.CO;2, 2000. a
Thompson, R. O. R. Y.: Coherence Significance Levels, J. Atmos. Sci., 36, 2020–2021, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1979)036<2020:CSL>2.0.CO;2, 1979. a
Torrence, C. and Compo, G. P.: A practical guide to wavelet analysis, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 79, 61–78, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<0061:APGTWA>2.0.CO;2, 1998. a
Tsujino, H., Urakawa, S., Nakano, H., Small, R. J., Kim, W. M., Yeager, S. G., Danabasoglu, G., Suzuki, T., Bamber, J. L., Bentsen, M., Böning, C. W., Bozec, A., Chassignet, E. P., Curchitser, E., Dias, F. B., Durack, P. J., Griffies, S. M., Harada, Y., Ilicak, M., Josey, S. A., Kobayashi, C., Kobayashi, S., Komuro, Y., Large, W. G., Sommer, J. L., Marsland, S. J., Masina, S., Scheinert, M., Tomita, H., Valdivieso, M., and Yamazaki, D.: JRA-55 based surface dataset for driving ocean–sea-ice models (JRA55-do), Ocean Model., 130, 79–139, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2018.07.002, 2018. a
van Sebille, E., Biastoch, A., van Leeuwen, P. J., and Ruijter, W. P. D.: A weaker Agulhas current leads to more Agulhas leakage, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, 10–13, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL036614, 2009. a, b
van Sebille, E., Griffies, S. M., Abernathey, R., Adams, T. P., Berloff, P., Biastoch, A., Blanke, B., Chassignet, E. P., Cheng, Y., Cotter, C. J., Deleersnijder, E., Döös, K., Drake, H. F., Drijfhout, S., Gary, S. F., Heemink, A. W., Kjellsson, J., Koszalka, I. M., Lange, M., Lique, C., MacGilchrist, G. A., Marsh, R., Adame, C. G. M., McAdam, R., Nencioli, F., Paris, C. B., Piggott, M. D., Polton, J. A., Rühs, S., Shah, S. H., Thomas, M. D., Wang, J., Wolfram, P. J., Zanna, L., and Zika, J. D.: Lagrangian ocean analysis: Fundamentals and practices, Ocean Model., 121, 49–75, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2017.11.008, 2018. a
van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S. J., and Rose, S. K.: The representative concentration pathways: an overview, Climatic Change, 109, 5–31, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z, 2011. a
van Westen, R. M. and Dijkstra, H. A.: Persistent climate model biases in the Atlantic Ocean's freshwater transport, Ocean Sci., 20, 549–567, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-549-2024, 2024. a, b, c, d
van Westen, R. M., Kliphuis, M., and Dijkstra, H. A.: Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances, 10, eadk1189, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189, 2024. a
Webb, D. J., Spence, P., Holmes, R. M., and England, M. H.: Planetary-wave-induced strengthening of the AMOC forced by poleward intensified southern hemisphere westerly winds, J. Climate, 34, 7073–7090, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0858.1, 2021. a
Weijer, W., Cheng, W., Drijfhout, S. S., Fedorov, A. V., Hu, A., Jackson, L. C., Liu, W., McDonagh, E. L., Mecking, J. V., and Zhang, J.: Stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: a review and synthesis, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 124, 5336–5375, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015083, 2019. a, b
Zhang, R., Sun, S., Chen, Z., Yang, H., and Wu, L.: On the decadal and multidecadal variability of the Agulhas Current, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 53, 1011–1024, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-22-0123.1, 2023. a
Short summary
This study investigates the Agulhas Leakage and examines its role in the global ocean circulation. It utilises a high-resolution Earth system model and a preindustrial climate to look at the response of the Agulhas Leakage to the wind field and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its evolution under climate change. The Agulhas Leakage could influence the stability of the AMOC, whose possible collapse would impact the climate in the Northern Hemisphere.
This study investigates the Agulhas Leakage and examines its role in the global ocean...
