Articles | Volume 21, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-37-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-37-2025
Research article
 | 
14 Jan 2025
Research article |  | 14 Jan 2025

A new vision of the Adriatic Dense Water future under extreme warming

Cléa Denamiel, Iva Tojčić, and Petra Pranić

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Cited articles

Akpinar, A., Yilmaz, E., Fach, B., and Salihoglu, B.: Physical oceanography of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, in: The Turkish Part of the Mediterranean Sea, edited by: Turan, K., Salihoglu, B., Ozbek, E. O., and Ozturk, B., Turkish Marine Research Foundation, Turkey, 1–14, https://hdl.handle.net/11511/84668 (last access: 9 January 2025) 2016.  
Androulidakis, Y. S., Kombiadou, K. D., Makris, C. V., Baltikas, V. N., and Krestenitis, Y. N.: Storm surges in the Mediterranean Sea: Variability and trends under future climatic conditions, Dynam. Atmos. Oceans, 71, 56–82, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2015.06.001, 2015. 
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Ballarin, L. and Frizzo, A.: Effects of environmental factors, including dense water flow, on mussel growth in the Adriatic Sea, Aquat. Ecol., 38, 541–549, 2004. 
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Short summary
We use a high-resolution atmosphere–ocean model to project Adriatic Dense Water dynamics under extreme warming. We find that a 15 % increase in sea surface evaporation will offset a 25 % decrease in extreme windstorms. As a result, future dense water will form at the same rate as today but will be too light to reach the Adriatic's deepest parts, making deep-water presence reliant on exchanges with the Ionian Sea.