A novel multispecies approach for the detection of regime shifts in a plankton community – a case study in the North Sea

Dees, Paul; Fröb, Friederike; Arellano-Nava, Beatriz; Johns, David G.; Heinze, Christoph

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2397-2025

Articles | Volume 21, issue 5

https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2397-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2397-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 21, issue 5

Research article

|

10 Oct 2025

Research article |

| 10 Oct 2025

A novel multispecies approach for the detection of regime shifts in a plankton community – a case study in the North Sea

Paul Dees, Friederike Fröb, Beatriz Arellano-Nava, David G. Johns, and Christoph Heinze

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2397-2025-supplement

Data sets

SEAS research dataset. Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom D. Johns https://doi.org/10.17031/1841

Model code and software

Regime shift timeseries (RST) P. Dees https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16363866

pandas-dev/pandas: Pandas The Pandas Development Team https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3509134

SciTools/cartopy: REL: v0.24.1 P. Elson et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1182735

Short summary

In this paper we describe a novel methodology to automate the estimation of ecological regime shift probability in a single time series. We have applied this new methodology to the continuous plankton recorder dataset in the North Sea and have shown how the model is able to estimate the likelihood of a regime shift using abundance data of multiple phytoplankton and zooplankton species.