Articles | Volume 22, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-367-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-367-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Rogue wave indicators from global models and buoy data
College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, Florida, 33701, USA
Gabriel Marcon
University of the People, Pasadena, California, 91101, USA
Steven Meyers
College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, Florida, 33701, USA
Mark Luther
College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, Florida, 33701, USA
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Short summary
Rogue wave risk is assessed using buoy observations and compared with reanalysis and numerical wave models. Results show that models typically underestimate extremes due to spectral smoothing and spatial averaging. Rogue waves are frequently preceded by a rapid decrease in crest–trough correlation below 0.5, followed by a sharp increase above 0.6, indicating that temporal wave-field evolution, rather than static values, is critical for identification and possible prediction.
Rogue wave risk is assessed using buoy observations and compared with reanalysis and numerical...