Ocean Science
Ocean Science
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Articles | Volume 22, issue 1
Articles | Volume 22, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-367-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-367-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 22, issue 1
Research article
 | 
02 Feb 2026
Research article |  | 02 Feb 2026

Rogue wave indicators from global models and buoy data

Laura Azevedo, Gabriel Marcon, Steven Meyers, and Mark Luther

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Short summary
Rogue wave risk is assessed using buoy observations and compared with reanalysis and numerical wave models. Results show that models typically underestimate extremes due to spectral smoothing and spatial averaging. Rogue waves are frequently preceded by a rapid decrease in crest–trough correlation below 0.5, followed by a sharp increase above 0.6, indicating that temporal wave-field evolution, rather than static values, is critical for identification and possible prediction.
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