Rogue wave indicators from global models and buoy data

Azevedo, Laura; Marcon, Gabriel; Meyers, Steven; Luther, Mark

doi:10.5194/os-22-367-2026

Articles | Volume 22, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-367-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-367-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 22, issue 1

Research article

|

02 Feb 2026

Research article |

| 02 Feb 2026

Rogue wave indicators from global models and buoy data

Laura Azevedo, Gabriel Marcon, Steven Meyers, and Mark Luther

Data sets

CY47R1 wave hindcast based on ERA5 forcing 1979–1989 ECMWF https://doi.org/10.21957/y03s-tz09

CY47R1 wave hindcast based on ERA5 forcing 1990–1999 ECMWF https://doi.org/10.21957/strn-cs36

CY47R1 wave hindcast based on ERA5 forcing 2000–2009 ECMWF https://doi.org/10.21957/dgkx-1485

CY47R1 wave hindcast based on ERA5 forcing 2010– 2020 ECMWF https://doi.org/10.21957/t3vj-b111

RA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present Copernicus Climate Change Service, Climate Data Store https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47

Short summary

Rogue wave risk is assessed using buoy observations and compared with reanalysis and numerical wave models. Results show that models typically underestimate extremes due to spectral smoothing and spatial averaging. Rogue waves are frequently preceded by a rapid decrease in crest–trough correlation below 0.5, followed by a sharp increase above 0.6, indicating that temporal wave-field evolution, rather than static values, is critical for identification and possible prediction.