Articles | Volume 22, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-3185-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-3185-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
16 Oct 2026
Research article |
| 16 Oct 2026
| 16 Oct 2026
An ensemble of regional CMIP3/CMIP5 wind wave scenarios for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea: a revisit
Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Max-Planck-Strasse 1, 21504 Geesthacht, Germany
Iris Grabemann
Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Max-Planck-Strasse 1, 21504 Geesthacht, Germany
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In recent years, the western Baltic Sea has experienced severe storm surges. By analysing the individual contributions and the total water level, these events can be put into a climate perspective. It was found that individual contributions were not exceptional in all events, and no clear trend can be identified. Often the combination of the individual contributions leads to the extreme events of recent years. This points to the importance of analysing composite events.
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In recent years, the western Baltic Sea has experienced severe storm surges. By analysing the individual contributions and the total water level, these events can be put into a climate perspective. It was found that individual contributions were not exceptional in all events, and no clear trend can be identified. Often the combination of the individual contributions leads to the extreme events of recent years. This points to the importance of analysing composite events.
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The severe storm tide of 13 March 1906 is still one of the most severe storm events for the East Frisian coast. Water levels from this event are considered for designing dike lines. For the first time, we investigate this event with a hydrodynamic model by forcing with atmospheric data from 147 ensemble members from century reanalysis projects and a manual reconstruction of the synoptic situation. Water levels were notably high due to a coincidence of high spring tides and high surge.
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Short summary
We examined how wave conditions in the North and Baltic Sea may change over the coming decades, using a wide range of future climate projections. Our study indicates that wave heights will increase in the eastern North Sea and in many Baltic Sea regions, while they will decrease in the western North Sea. The strongest changes occur under high greenhouse gas emissions, emphasising the importance of climate mitigation and long-term coastal planning.
We examined how wave conditions in the North and Baltic Sea may change over the coming decades,...
