Temperature-based diagnosis of the Gulf Stream path  overestimates its northward shift in a warming ocean

Garcia-Suarez, Lina; Fennel, Katja; Mehendale, Neha; Kemena, Tronje; Keller, David P.

doi:10.5194/os-22-1183-2026

Articles | Volume 22, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1183-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1183-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 22, issue 2

Research article

|

20 Apr 2026

Research article |

| 20 Apr 2026

Temperature-based diagnosis of the Gulf Stream path overestimates its northward shift in a warming ocean

Lina Garcia-Suarez, Katja Fennel, Neha Mehendale, Tronje Kemena, and David P. Keller

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1183-2026-supplement

Data sets

Global ocean gridded L4 sea surface heights and derived variables reprocessed Copernicus Climate Change Service https://doi.org/10.48670/MOI-00145

Multi Observation Global Ocean 3D Temperature Salinity Height Geostrophic Current and MLD European Union-Copernicus Marine Service https://doi.org/10.48670/MOI-00052

Processed outputs from the CM2.6 and FOCI climate models used to investigate how temperature-based diagnosis of the Gulf Stream path overestimates its northward shift (Garcia-Suarez et al., 2026; OS) L. Garcia-Suarez et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14644833

Short summary

This study shows that regional ocean warming can make the Gulf Stream appear to shift north more rapidly than it actually does. Temperature-based proxies, like the Gulf Stream North Wall, overestimate changes in its position. Methods based on sea surface height provide a more accurate view. These results help improve how we track changes in ocean currents and avoid misinterpreting signs of climate-related shifts.