Articles | Volume 22, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1051-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1051-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Advances in monitoring the Black Sea: a new regional multidecadal ocean reanalysis at 1∕40° resolution
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Lecce 73100, LE, Italy
Diana Azevedo
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Lecce 73100, LE, Italy
Mehmet Ilicak
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Lecce 73100, LE, Italy
Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey
Eric Jansen
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Lecce 73100, LE, Italy
Filipe Costa
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Lecce 73100, LE, Italy
Adil Sozer
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Lecce 73100, LE, Italy
Ordu University, Fatsa Faculty of Marine Science, Ordu, Turkey
Pietro Miraglio
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Lecce 73100, LE, Italy
Emanuela Clementi
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Lecce 73100, LE, Italy
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Leonardo Lima, Rafael Menezes, Ehsan Sadighrad, Ronan McAdam, Filipe Costa, Pietro Miraglio, Mehmet Ilicak, Eric Jansen, Ali Aydogdu, Francesco Maicu, and Emanuela Clementi
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2025-6, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2025-6, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for SP
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As climate change intensifies, marine heatwaves (MHWs), periods of unusually high ocean temperatures, threaten ecosystems and communities. This study analyzes MHWs in the Mediterranean and Black Seas, examining surface temperatures and ocean heat content in the upper 0–40 meters to capture subsurface warming. Findings highlight the need to monitor both surface and subsurface conditions for a comprehensive understanding and better management considering ongoing warming trends in both seas.
Karina von Schuckmann, Lorena Moreira, Mathilde Cancet, Flora Gues, Emmanuelle Autret, Ali Aydogdu, Lluis Castrillo, Daniele Ciani, Andrea Cipollone, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Alvaro de Pascual-Collar, Vincenzo De Toma, Marion Gehlen, Rianne Giesen, Marie Drevillon, Claudia Fanelli, Kevin Hodges, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Eric Jansen, Melanie Juza, Ioanna Karagali, Priidik Lagemaa, Vidar Lien, Leonardo Lima, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Ilja Maljutenko, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, Pietro Miraglio, Helen Morrison, Tabea Rebekka Panteleit, Andrea Pisano, Marie-Isabelle Pujol, Urmas Raudsepp, Roshin Raj, Ad Stoffelen, Simon Van Gennip, Pierre Veillard, and Chunxue Yang
State Planet, 4-osr8, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-2-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-2-2024, 2024
Leonardo Lima, Salvatore Causio, Mehmet Ilicak, Ronan McAdam, and Eric Jansen
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2023-19, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2023-19, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Recent studies have revealed an increase in the ocean temperature and heat content in the Black Sea, where the research on marine heat waves (MHWs) is still incipient. Our study reveals long-lasting MHWs and interesting connections between surface and subsurface MHWs in the Black Sea. Our analysis is a starting point to create a monitoring system of MHWs for the Black Sea.
Paolo Oddo, Mario Adani, Francesco Carere, Andrea Cipollone, Anna Chiara Goglio, Eric Jansen, Ali Aydogdu, Francesca Mele, Italo Epicoco, Jenny Pistoia, Emanuela Clementi, Nadia Pinardi, and Simona Masina
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 423–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-423-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-423-2026, 2026
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This study present a data assimilation system that combines ocean observational data with ocean model results to better understand the ocean and predict its future state. The method uses a three dimensional incremental variational approach focusing on the physical relationships between all the state vector variables errors. Testing in the Mediterranean Sea showed that a complex sea level operator based on a barotropic model works best.
Lucia Gualtieri, Paolo Oddo, Hans Burchard, Federica Borile, Aimie Moulin, Pietro Miraglio, Francesco Maicu, and Emanuela Clementi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5327, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5327, 2025
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This study addresses a gap in understanding how turbulent mixing closure schemes and convective adjustments interplay in the Mediterranean Sea. Coupled ocean-wave simulations were performed with different mixing parameterizations and model results were compared against Argo float observations across different space and time scales. Results show that the Generalised Length Scale closure scheme best reproduces observed mixed layer properties and variability, without needing convective adjustment.
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State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2025-2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2025-2, 2025
Preprint under review for SP
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Sea level trends are analysed in the western and eastern Mediterranean Sea using satellite and in-situ data. We found that sea level rise is not constant but varies over decades and differs between regions. These changes are influenced by temperature, salinity, and local land movements. Understanding this variability helps improve coastal planning and prepares communities for changing sea levels in the near future.
Leonardo Lima, Rafael Menezes, Ehsan Sadighrad, Ronan McAdam, Filipe Costa, Pietro Miraglio, Mehmet Ilicak, Eric Jansen, Ali Aydogdu, Francesco Maicu, and Emanuela Clementi
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2025-6, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2025-6, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for SP
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As climate change intensifies, marine heatwaves (MHWs), periods of unusually high ocean temperatures, threaten ecosystems and communities. This study analyzes MHWs in the Mediterranean and Black Seas, examining surface temperatures and ocean heat content in the upper 0–40 meters to capture subsurface warming. Findings highlight the need to monitor both surface and subsurface conditions for a comprehensive understanding and better management considering ongoing warming trends in both seas.
Salvatore Causio, Seimur Shirinov, Ivan Federico, Giovanni De Cillis, Emanuela Clementi, Lorenzo Mentaschi, and Giovanni Coppini
Ocean Sci., 21, 1105–1123, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1105-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1105-2025, 2025
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This study examines how waves and ocean currents interact during severe weather, focusing on Medicane Ianos, one of the strongest storms in the Mediterranean. Using advanced modeling, we created a unique system to simulate these interactions, capturing effects like wave-induced water levels and wave-induced effects on the vertical structure of the ocean. We validated our approach with ideal tests and real data from the storm.
Jennifer Veitch, Enrique Alvarez-Fanjul, Arthur Capet, Stefania Ciliberti, Mauro Cirano, Emanuela Clementi, Fraser Davidson, Ghada el Serafy, Guilherme Franz, Patrick Hogan, Sudheer Joseph, Svitlana Liubartseva, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Heather Regan, and Katerina Spanoudaki
State Planet, 5-opsr, 6, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-6-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-6-2025, 2025
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Ocean forecast systems provide information about a future state of the ocean. This information is provided in the form of decision support tools, or downstream applications, that can be accessed by various stakeholders to support livelihoods, coastal resilience and the good governance of the marine environment. This paper provides an overview of the various downstream applications of ocean forecast systems that are utilized around the world.
Mauro Cirano, Enrique Alvarez-Fanjul, Arthur Capet, Stefania Ciliberti, Emanuela Clementi, Boris Dewitte, Matias Dinápoli, Ghada El Serafy, Patrick Hogan, Sudheer Joseph, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Ivonne Montes, Diego A. Narvaez, Heather Regan, Claudia G. Simionato, Gregory C. Smith, Joanna Staneva, Clemente A. S. Tanajura, Pramod Thupaki, Claudia Urbano-Latorre, Jennifer Veitch, and Jorge Zavala Hidalgo
State Planet, 5-opsr, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-5-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-5-2025, 2025
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Operational ocean forecasting systems (OOFSs) are crucial for human activities, environmental monitoring, and policymaking. An assessment across eight key regions highlights strengths and gaps, particularly in coastal and biogeochemical forecasting. AI offers improvements, but collaboration, knowledge sharing, and initiatives like the OceanPrediction Decade Collaborative Centre (DCC) are key to enhancing accuracy, accessibility, and global forecasting capabilities.
Siren Rühs, Ton van den Bremer, Emanuela Clementi, Michael C. Denes, Aimie Moulin, and Erik van Sebille
Ocean Sci., 21, 217–240, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-217-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-217-2025, 2025
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Simulating the transport of floating particles on the ocean surface is crucial for solving many societal issues. Here, we investigate how the representation of wind-generated surface waves impacts particle transport simulations. We find that different wave-driven processes can alter transport patterns and that commonly adopted approximations are not always adequate. This suggests that ideally coupled ocean–wave models should be used for surface particle transport simulations.
Ronan McAdam, Giulia Bonino, Emanuela Clementi, and Simona Masina
State Planet, 4-osr8, 13, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-13-2024, 2024
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In the summer of 2022, a regional short-term forecasting system was able to predict the onset, spread, peaks, and decay of a record-breaking marine heatwave in the Mediterranean Sea up to 10 d in advance. Satellite data show that the event was record-breaking in terms of basin-wide intensity and duration. This study demonstrates the potential of state-of-the-art forecasting systems to provide early warning of marine heatwaves for marine activities (e.g. conservation and aquaculture).
Anna Teruzzi, Ali Aydogdu, Carolina Amadio, Emanuela Clementi, Simone Colella, Valeria Di Biagio, Massimiliano Drudi, Claudia Fanelli, Laura Feudale, Alessandro Grandi, Pietro Miraglio, Andrea Pisano, Jenny Pistoia, Marco Reale, Stefano Salon, Gianluca Volpe, and Gianpiero Cossarini
State Planet, 4-osr8, 15, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-15-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-15-2024, 2024
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A noticeable cold spell occurred in Eastern Europe at the beginning of 2022 and was the main driver of intense deep-water formation and the associated transport of nutrients to the surface. Southeast of Crete, the availability of both light and nutrients in the surface layer stimulated an anomalous phytoplankton bloom. In the area, chlorophyll concentration (a proxy for bloom intensity) and primary production were considerably higher than usual, suggesting possible impacts on fishery catches.
Karina von Schuckmann, Lorena Moreira, Mathilde Cancet, Flora Gues, Emmanuelle Autret, Jonathan Baker, Clément Bricaud, Romain Bourdalle-Badie, Lluis Castrillo, Lijing Cheng, Frederic Chevallier, Daniele Ciani, Alvaro de Pascual-Collar, Vincenzo De Toma, Marie Drevillon, Claudia Fanelli, Gilles Garric, Marion Gehlen, Rianne Giesen, Kevin Hodges, Doroteaciro Iovino, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Eric Jansen, Melanie Juza, Ioanna Karagali, Thomas Lavergne, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, Audrey Minière, Helen Morrison, Tabea Rebekka Panteleit, Andrea Pisano, Marie-Isabelle Pujol, Ad Stoffelen, Sulian Thual, Simon Van Gennip, Pierre Veillard, Chunxue Yang, and Hao Zuo
State Planet, 4-osr8, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-1-2024, 2024
Karina von Schuckmann, Lorena Moreira, Mathilde Cancet, Flora Gues, Emmanuelle Autret, Ali Aydogdu, Lluis Castrillo, Daniele Ciani, Andrea Cipollone, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Alvaro de Pascual-Collar, Vincenzo De Toma, Marion Gehlen, Rianne Giesen, Marie Drevillon, Claudia Fanelli, Kevin Hodges, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Eric Jansen, Melanie Juza, Ioanna Karagali, Priidik Lagemaa, Vidar Lien, Leonardo Lima, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Ilja Maljutenko, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, Pietro Miraglio, Helen Morrison, Tabea Rebekka Panteleit, Andrea Pisano, Marie-Isabelle Pujol, Urmas Raudsepp, Roshin Raj, Ad Stoffelen, Simon Van Gennip, Pierre Veillard, and Chunxue Yang
State Planet, 4-osr8, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-2-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-2-2024, 2024
Bethany McDonagh, Emanuela Clementi, Anna Chiara Goglio, and Nadia Pinardi
Ocean Sci., 20, 1051–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1051-2024, 2024
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Tides in the Mediterranean Sea are typically of low amplitude, but twin experiments with and without tides demonstrate that tides affect the circulation directly at scales away from those of the tides. Analysis of the energy changes due to tides shows that they enhance existing oscillations, and internal tides interact with other internal waves. Tides also increase the mixed layer depth and enhance deep water formation in key regions. Internal tides are widespread in the Mediterranean Sea.
Giulia Bonino, Giuliano Galimberti, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, and Emanuela Clementi
Ocean Sci., 20, 417–432, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-417-2024, 2024
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This study employs machine learning to predict marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the Mediterranean Sea. MHWs have far-reaching impacts on society and ecosystems. Using data from ESA and ECMWF, the research develops accurate prediction models for sea surface temperature (SST) and MHWs across the region. Notably, machine learning methods outperform existing forecasting systems, showing promise in early MHW predictions. The study also highlights the importance of solar radiation as a predictor of SST.
Giovanni Coppini, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Stefano Salon, Gerasimos Korres, Michalis Ravdas, Rita Lecci, Jenny Pistoia, Anna Chiara Goglio, Massimiliano Drudi, Alessandro Grandi, Ali Aydogdu, Romain Escudier, Andrea Cipollone, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Antonio Mariani, Sergio Cretì, Francesco Palermo, Matteo Scuro, Simona Masina, Nadia Pinardi, Antonio Navarra, Damiano Delrosso, Anna Teruzzi, Valeria Di Biagio, Giorgio Bolzon, Laura Feudale, Gianluca Coidessa, Carolina Amadio, Alberto Brosich, Arnau Miró, Eva Alvarez, Paolo Lazzari, Cosimo Solidoro, Charikleia Oikonomou, and Anna Zacharioudaki
Ocean Sci., 19, 1483–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1483-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1483-2023, 2023
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The paper presents the Mediterranean Forecasting System evolution and performance developed in the framework of the Copernicus Marine Service.
Ali Aydogdu, Pietro Miraglio, Romain Escudier, Emanuela Clementi, and Simona Masina
State Planet, 1-osr7, 6, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-6-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-6-2023, 2023
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This paper investigates the salt content, salinity anomaly and trend in the Mediterranean Sea using observational and reanalysis products. The salt content increases overall, while negative salinity anomalies appear in the western basin, especially around the upwelling regions. There is a large spread in the salinity estimates that is reduced with the emergence of the Argo profilers.
Stefania A. Ciliberti, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Jay Pearlman, Kirsten Wilmer-Becker, Pierre Bahurel, Fabrice Ardhuin, Alain Arnaud, Mike Bell, Segolene Berthou, Laurent Bertino, Arthur Capet, Eric Chassignet, Stefano Ciavatta, Mauro Cirano, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Gianpaolo Coro, Stuart Corney, Fraser Davidson, Marie Drevillon, Yann Drillet, Renaud Dussurget, Ghada El Serafy, Katja Fennel, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Patrick Heimbach, Fabrice Hernandez, Patrick Hogan, Ibrahim Hoteit, Sudheer Joseph, Simon Josey, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Simone Libralato, Marco Mancini, Pascal Matte, Angelique Melet, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Andrew M. Moore, Antonio Novellino, Andrew Porter, Heather Regan, Laia Romero, Andreas Schiller, John Siddorn, Joanna Staneva, Cecile Thomas-Courcoux, Marina Tonani, Jose Maria Garcia-Valdecasas, Jennifer Veitch, Karina von Schuckmann, Liying Wan, John Wilkin, and Romane Zufic
State Planet, 1-osr7, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, 2023
Leonardo Lima, Salvatore Causio, Mehmet Ilicak, Ronan McAdam, and Eric Jansen
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2023-19, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2023-19, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
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Recent studies have revealed an increase in the ocean temperature and heat content in the Black Sea, where the research on marine heat waves (MHWs) is still incipient. Our study reveals long-lasting MHWs and interesting connections between surface and subsurface MHWs in the Black Sea. Our analysis is a starting point to create a monitoring system of MHWs for the Black Sea.
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Short summary
We used a high-resolution ocean model to investigate how the Black Sea is responding to external drivers, including climate change. Our results show clear warming, particularly in the upper 150 m, and reveal significant changes in ocean circulation and water masses. The model also supports the development of ocean monitoring indicators that help track the sea’s response to climate-related trends and improve our understanding of how ocean conditions in the Black Sea evolve.
We used a high-resolution ocean model to investigate how the Black Sea is responding to external...