Ocean Science
Ocean Science
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Articles | Volume 21, issue 4
Articles | Volume 21, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1303-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1303-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 21, issue 4
Research article
 | 
14 Jul 2025
Research article |  | 14 Jul 2025

Constraining local ocean dynamic sea-level projections using observations

Dewi Le Bars, Iris Keizer, and Sybren Drijfhout

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Bingham, R. J. and Hughes, C. W.: Local diagnostics to estimate density-induced sea level variations over topography and along coastlines: topography and sea level, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 117, C01013, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007276, 2012. 
Bulgin, C. E., Mecking, J. V., Harvey, B. J., Jevrejeva, S., McCarroll, N. F., Merchant, C. J., and Sinha, B.: Dynamic sea-level changes and potential implications for storm surges in the UK: a storylines perspective, Environ. Res. Lett., 18, 044033, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acc6df, 2023. 
Bult, S. V., Le Bars, D., Haigh, I. D., and Gerkema, T.: The Effect of the 18.6-Year Lunar Nodal Cycle on Steric Sea Level Changes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, e2023GL106563, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106563, 2024. 
Calafat, F. M., Chambers, D. P., and Tsimplis, M. N.: Mechanisms of decadal sea level variability in the eastern North Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 117, C09022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JC008285, 2012. 
Camargo, C. M. L., Riva, R. E. M., Hermans, T. H. J., Schütt, E. M., Marcos, M., Hernandez-Carrasco, I., and Slangen, A. B. A.: Regionalizing the sea-level budget with machine learning techniques, Ocean Sci., 19, 17–41, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-17-2023, 2023. 
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While preparing a new set of sea level scenarios for the Netherlands, we found out that many climate models overestimate the changes in ocean circulation for the last 30 years. To quantify this effect, we defined three methods that rely on diverse and independent observations: tide gauges, satellite altimetry, temperature and salinity in the ocean, land ice melt, etc. Based on these observations, we define a few methods to select models and discuss their advantages and disadvantages.
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