Constraining local ocean dynamic sea-level  projections using observations

Le Bars, Dewi; Keizer, Iris; Drijfhout, Sybren

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1303-2025

Articles | Volume 21, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1303-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1303-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 21, issue 4

Research article

|

14 Jul 2025

Research article |

| 14 Jul 2025

Constraining local ocean dynamic sea-level projections using observations

Dewi Le Bars, Iris Keizer, and Sybren Drijfhout

Data sets

EN4: quality controlled subsurface ocean temperature and salinity profiles and objective analyses Met Office https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/en4/

Data supplement of "The causes of sea-level rise since 1900'' T. Frederikse et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3862995

ICE-6G dataset W. R. Peltier https://www.atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca/~peltier/data.php

Dlebars/SLBudget: First Release Dewi Le Bars https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14046697

ESGF MetaGrid Earth System Grid Federation https://esgf-node.ipsl.upmc.fr/search/cmip6-ipsl/

ERA5 monthly averaged data on single levels from 1940 to present H. Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.f17050d7

SODA 3.4.2 ocean reanalysis J. A. Carton et al. https://dsrs.atmos.umd.edu/DATA/soda3.4.2/REGRIDED/ocean/

Model code and software

Python implementation of the Thermodynamic Equation of Seawater 2010 TEOS-10 developers https://teos-10.github.io/GSW-Python/install.html

iris-keizer/ROMS-project: ROMS-project I. Keizer https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15854062

iris-keizer/Thesis-KNMI: Thesis-KNMI I. Keizer https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15854069

KNMI-sealevel/Obs_ODSL_Netherlands: First release Dewi Le Bars https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15799703

Short summary

While preparing a new set of sea level scenarios for the Netherlands, we found out that many climate models overestimate the changes in ocean circulation for the last 30 years. To quantify this effect, we defined three methods that rely on diverse and independent observations: tide gauges, satellite altimetry, temperature and salinity in the ocean, land ice melt, etc. Based on these observations, we define a few methods to select models and discuss their advantages and disadvantages.