Articles | Volume 21, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1255-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1255-2025
Research article
 | 
08 Jul 2025
Research article |  | 08 Jul 2025

Seafloor marine heatwaves outpace surface events in the future on the northwestern European shelf

Robert J. Wilson, Yuri Artioli, Giovanni Galli, James Harle, Jason Holt, Ana M. Queirós, and Sarah Wakelin

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Amaya, D. J., Miller, A. J., Xie, S. P., and Kosaka, Y.: Physical drivers of the summer 2019 North Pacific marine heatwave, Nat. Commun., 11, 1, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15820-w, 2020. 
Amaya, D. J., Jacox, M. G., Alexander, M. A., Scott, J. D., Deser, C., Capotondi, A., and Phillips, A. S.: Bottom marine heatwaves along the continental shelves of North America, Nat. Commun., 14, 1, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36567-0, 2023a. 
Arafeh-Dalmau, N., Montaño-Moctezuma, G., Martinez, J. A., Beas-Luna, R., Schoeman, D. S., and Torres-Moye, G.: Extreme Marine Heatwaves alter kelp forest community near its equatorward distribution limit, Front. Mar. Sci., 6, 499, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00499, 2019. 
Arias-Ortiz, A., Serrano, O., Masqué, P., Lavery, P. S., Mueller, U., Kendrick, G. A., Rozaimi, M., Esteban, A., Fourqurean, J. W., Marbà, N., Mateo, M. A., Murray, K., Rule, M. J., and Duarte, C. M.: A marine heatwave drives massive losses from the world's largest seagrass carbon stocks, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 338–344, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0096-y, 2018. 
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Short summary
Marine heatwaves are of growing concern around the world. We use a state-of-the-art ensemble of downscaled climate models to project how often heatwaves will occur in the future across northwestern Europe under a high-emission scenario. The projections show that, without emission reductions, heatwaves will occur more than half of the time in the future. We show that the seafloor is expected to experience much more frequent heatwaves than the sea surface in the future.
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