Articles | Volume 21, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1255-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1255-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Jul 2025
Research article |
| 08 Jul 2025
| 08 Jul 2025
Seafloor marine heatwaves outpace surface events in the future on the northwestern European shelf
Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK
Yuri Artioli
Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK
Giovanni Galli
Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK
National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics (OGS), Section of Oceanography, via Beirut 2, 34014 Trieste, Italy
James Harle
National Oceanography Centre (NOC), European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
Jason Holt
UK National Oceanography Centre (NOC), Joseph Proudman Building, 6 Brownlow Street, Liverpool, L3 5DA, UK
Ana M. Queirós
Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK
Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Sarah Wakelin
UK National Oceanography Centre (NOC), Joseph Proudman Building, 6 Brownlow Street, Liverpool, L3 5DA, UK
Related authors
Robert J. Wilson and Michael R. Heath
Ocean Sci., 15, 1615–1625, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1615-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1615-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The North Sea became much less clear during the 20th century, with potential consequences for primary production. This study analyses the hypothesis that changes in wave regime were a key driver of this change. We hindcast bed shear stress over the 20th century using a long-term wave reanalysis. Shear stress increased by over 20 % in large parts of the southern and central North Sea during the 20th century. An increase of this magnitude would have caused a large decline in water clarity.
Robert J. Wilson, Douglas C. Speirs, Alessandro Sabatino, and Michael R. Heath
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 109–130, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-109-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-109-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We provide new maps of the sedimentary environment in the north-west European Continental Shelf. Maps are blended products of interpolated field estimates and statistical predictions. Data products include mud, sand and gravel percentages, median grain sizes, rock cover, carbon and nitrogen content, porosity and permeability, wave and tidal velocities, and natural disturbance rates. These maps can be used in applications such as species distribution modelling and ecosystem modelling.
Giovanni Galli, Sarah Wakelin, James Harle, Jason Holt, and Yuri Artioli
Biogeosciences, 21, 2143–2158, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2143-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2143-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work shows that, under a high-emission scenario, oxygen concentration in deep water of parts of the North Sea and Celtic Sea can become critically low (hypoxia) towards the end of this century. The extent and frequency of hypoxia depends on the intensity of climate change projected by different climate models. This is the result of a complex combination of factors like warming, increase in stratification, changes in the currents and changes in biological processes.
Hannah Chawner, Eric Saboya, Karina E. Adcock, Tim Arnold, Yuri Artioli, Caroline Dylag, Grant L. Forster, Anita Ganesan, Heather Graven, Gennadi Lessin, Peter Levy, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Alistair Manning, Penelope A. Pickers, Chris Rennick, Christian Rödenbeck, and Matthew Rigby
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4231–4252, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4231-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4231-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The quantity of atmospheric potential oxygen (APO), derived from coincident measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2) and oxygen (O2), has been proposed as a tracer for fossil fuel CO2 emissions. In this model sensitivity study, we examine the use of APO for this purpose in the UK and compare our model to observations. We find that our model simulations are most sensitive to uncertainties relating to ocean fluxes and boundary conditions.
Andrea J. McEvoy, Angus Atkinson, Ruth L. Airs, Rachel Brittain, Ian Brown, Elaine S. Fileman, Helen S. Findlay, Caroline L. McNeill, Clare Ostle, Tim J. Smyth, Paul J. Somerfield, Karen Tait, Glen A. Tarran, Simon Thomas, Claire E. Widdicombe, E. Malcolm S. Woodward, Amanda Beesley, David V. P. Conway, James Fishwick, Hannah Haines, Carolyn Harris, Roger Harris, Pierre Hélaouët, David Johns, Penelope K. Lindeque, Thomas Mesher, Abigail McQuatters-Gollop, Joana Nunes, Frances Perry, Ana M. Queiros, Andrew Rees, Saskia Rühl, David Sims, Ricardo Torres, and Stephen Widdicombe
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5701–5737, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5701-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5701-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Western Channel Observatory is an oceanographic time series and biodiversity reference site within 40 km of Plymouth (UK), sampled since 1903. Differing levels of reporting and formatting hamper the use of the valuable individual datasets. We provide the first summary database as monthly averages where comparisons can be made of the physical, chemical and biological data. We describe the database, illustrate its utility to examine seasonality and longer-term trends, and summarize previous work.
Christoph Heinze, Thorsten Blenckner, Peter Brown, Friederike Fröb, Anne Morée, Adrian L. New, Cara Nissen, Stefanie Rynders, Isabel Seguro, Yevgeny Aksenov, Yuri Artioli, Timothée Bourgeois, Friedrich Burger, Jonathan Buzan, B. B. Cael, Veli Çağlar Yumruktepe, Melissa Chierici, Christopher Danek, Ulf Dieckmann, Agneta Fransson, Thomas Frölicher, Giovanni Galli, Marion Gehlen, Aridane G. González, Melchor Gonzalez-Davila, Nicolas Gruber, Örjan Gustafsson, Judith Hauck, Mikko Heino, Stephanie Henson, Jenny Hieronymus, I. Emma Huertas, Fatma Jebri, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Jaideep Joshi, Stephen Kelly, Nandini Menon, Precious Mongwe, Laurent Oziel, Sólveig Ólafsdottir, Julien Palmieri, Fiz F. Pérez, Rajamohanan Pillai Ranith, Juliano Ramanantsoa, Tilla Roy, Dagmara Rusiecka, J. Magdalena Santana Casiano, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Miriam Seifert, Anna Shchiptsova, Bablu Sinha, Christopher Somes, Reiner Steinfeldt, Dandan Tao, Jerry Tjiputra, Adam Ulfsbo, Christoph Völker, Tsuyoshi Wakamatsu, and Ying Ye
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
For assessing the consequences of human-induced climate change for the marine realm, it is necessary to not only look at gradual changes but also at abrupt changes of environmental conditions. We summarise abrupt changes in ocean warming, acidification, and oxygen concentration as the key environmental factors for ecosystems. Taking these abrupt changes into account requires greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced to a larger extent than previously thought to limit respective damage.
Jeff Polton, James Harle, Jason Holt, Anna Katavouta, Dale Partridge, Jenny Jardine, Sarah Wakelin, Julia Rulent, Anthony Wise, Katherine Hutchinson, David Byrne, Diego Bruciaferri, Enda O'Dea, Michela De Dominicis, Pierre Mathiot, Andrew Coward, Andrew Yool, Julien Palmiéri, Gennadi Lessin, Claudia Gabriela Mayorga-Adame, Valérie Le Guennec, Alex Arnold, and Clément Rousset
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1481–1510, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1481-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The aim is to increase the capacity of the modelling community to respond to societally important questions that require ocean modelling. The concept of reproducibility for regional ocean modelling is developed: advocating methods for reproducible workflows and standardised methods of assessment. Then, targeting the NEMO framework, we give practical advice and worked examples, highlighting key considerations that will the expedite development cycle and upskill the user community.
Steve Widdicombe, Kirsten Isensee, Yuri Artioli, Juan Diego Gaitán-Espitia, Claudine Hauri, Janet A. Newton, Mark Wells, and Sam Dupont
Ocean Sci., 19, 101–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-101-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-101-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean acidification is a global perturbation of the ocean carbonate chemistry as a consequence of increased carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere. While great progress has been made over the last decade for chemical monitoring, ocean acidification biological monitoring remains anecdotal. This is a consequence of a lack of standards, general methodological framework, and overall methodology. This paper presents methodology focusing on sensitive traits and rates of change.
Matthew Clark, Robert Marsh, and James Harle
Ocean Sci., 18, 549–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-549-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-549-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The European Slope Current (SC) is a northward-flowing current running parallel to the UK coastline. It is forced by changes in the density gradient of the wider North Atlantic Ocean. As the North Atlantic has warmed since the late 1990s, these gradients have changed strength and moved, reducing the volume and speed of water feeding into the SC. The SC flows into the North Sea, where changes in the species distribution of some plankton and fish have been seen due to the warming inputs.
Robert J. Wilson and Michael R. Heath
Ocean Sci., 15, 1615–1625, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1615-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1615-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The North Sea became much less clear during the 20th century, with potential consequences for primary production. This study analyses the hypothesis that changes in wave regime were a key driver of this change. We hindcast bed shear stress over the 20th century using a long-term wave reanalysis. Shear stress increased by over 20 % in large parts of the southern and central North Sea during the 20th century. An increase of this magnitude would have caused a large decline in water clarity.
Andrew R. Porter, Jeremy Appleyard, Mike Ashworth, Rupert W. Ford, Jason Holt, Hedong Liu, and Graham D. Riley
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3447–3464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3447-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3447-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Developing computer models in the earth-system domain is a complex and expensive process that can have a duration measured in years. The supercomputers required to run these models, however, are evolving fast with a proliferation of technologies and associated programming models. As a result there is a need that models be "performance portable" between different supercomputers. This paper investigates a way of doing this through a separation of the concerns of performance and natural science.
Jennifer A. Graham, Enda O'Dea, Jason Holt, Jeff Polton, Helene T. Hewitt, Rachel Furner, Karen Guihou, Ashley Brereton, Alex Arnold, Sarah Wakelin, Juan Manuel Castillo Sanchez, and C. Gabriela Mayorga Adame
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 681–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-681-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-681-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the next-generation ocean forecast model for the European NW shelf, AMM15 (Atlantic Margin Model, 1.5 km resolution). The current forecast system has a resolution of 7 km. While this is sufficient to represent large-scale circulation, many dynamical features (such as eddies, frontal jets, and internal tides) can only begin to be resolved at 0–1 km resolution. Here we introduce AMM15 and demonstrate its ability to represent the mean state and variability of the region.
Robert J. Wilson, Douglas C. Speirs, Alessandro Sabatino, and Michael R. Heath
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 109–130, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-109-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-109-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We provide new maps of the sedimentary environment in the north-west European Continental Shelf. Maps are blended products of interpolated field estimates and statistical predictions. Data products include mud, sand and gravel percentages, median grain sizes, rock cover, carbon and nitrogen content, porosity and permeability, wave and tidal velocities, and natural disturbance rates. These maps can be used in applications such as species distribution modelling and ecosystem modelling.
Huw W. Lewis, Juan Manuel Castillo Sanchez, Jennifer Graham, Andrew Saulter, Jorge Bornemann, Alex Arnold, Joachim Fallmann, Chris Harris, David Pearson, Steven Ramsdale, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, Lucy Bricheno, Eleanor Blyth, Victoria A. Bell, Helen Davies, Toby R. Marthews, Clare O'Neill, Heather Rumbold, Enda O'Dea, Ashley Brereton, Karen Guihou, Adrian Hines, Momme Butenschon, Simon J. Dadson, Tamzin Palmer, Jason Holt, Nick Reynard, Martin Best, John Edwards, and John Siddorn
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1–42, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In the real world the atmosphere, oceans and land surface are closely interconnected, and yet prediction systems tend to treat them in isolation. Those feedbacks are often illustrated in natural hazards, such as when strong winds lead to large waves and coastal damage, or when prolonged rainfall leads to saturated ground and high flowing rivers. For the first time, we have attempted to represent some of the feedbacks between sky, sea and land within a high-resolution forecast system for the UK.
Enda O'Dea, Rachel Furner, Sarah Wakelin, John Siddorn, James While, Peter Sykes, Robert King, Jason Holt, and Helene Hewitt
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2947–2969, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2947-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2947-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
An update to an ocean modelling configuration for the European North West Shelf is described. It is assessed against observations and climatologies for 1981–2012. Sensitivities in the model configuration updates are assessed to understand changes in the model system. The model improves upon an existing model of the region, although there remain some areas with significant biases. The paper highlights the dependence upon the quality of the river inputs.
Jason Holt, Patrick Hyder, Mike Ashworth, James Harle, Helene T. Hewitt, Hedong Liu, Adrian L. New, Stephen Pickles, Andrew Porter, Ekaterina Popova, J. Icarus Allen, John Siddorn, and Richard Wood
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 499–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-499-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-499-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Accurately representing coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models is one of the grand challenges of Earth system science. Here, we explore what the options are for improving this by exploring what the important physical processes are that need to be represented. We use a simple scale analysis to investigate how large the resulting models would need to be. We then compare this with how computer power is increasing to provide estimates of when this might be feasible in the future.
Heather Cannaby, Matthew D. Palmer, Tom Howard, Lucy Bricheno, Daley Calvert, Justin Krijnen, Richard Wood, Jonathan Tinker, Chris Bunney, James Harle, Andrew Saulter, Clare O'Neill, Clare Bellingham, and Jason Lowe
Ocean Sci., 12, 613–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-613-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-613-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Singapore government commissioned a modelling study of regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events. We find that changes to long-term mean sea level constitute the dominant signal of change to the projected inundation risk for Singapore during the 21st century, these being 0.52 m(0.74 m) under the RCP 4.5(8.5) scenario.
Momme Butenschön, James Clark, John N. Aldridge, Julian Icarus Allen, Yuri Artioli, Jeremy Blackford, Jorn Bruggeman, Pierre Cazenave, Stefano Ciavatta, Susan Kay, Gennadi Lessin, Sonja van Leeuwen, Johan van der Molen, Lee de Mora, Luca Polimene, Sevrine Sailley, Nicholas Stephens, and Ricardo Torres
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1293–1339, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1293-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1293-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
ERSEM 15.06 is a model for marine biogeochemistry and the lower trophic levels of the marine food web. It comprises a pelagic and benthic sub-model including the microbial food web and the major biogeochemical cycles of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, silicate, and iron using dynamic stochiometry. Further features include modules for the carbonate system and calcification. We present full mathematical descriptions of all elements along with examples at various scales up to 3-D applications.
Y. Artioli, J. C. Blackford, G. Nondal, R. G. J. Bellerby, S. L. Wakelin, J. T. Holt, M. Butenschön, and J. I. Allen
Biogeosciences, 11, 601–612, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-601-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-601-2014, 2014
J. Holt, C. Schrum, H. Cannaby, U. Daewel, I. Allen, Y. Artioli, L. Bopp, M. Butenschon, B. A. Fach, J. Harle, D. Pushpadas, B. Salihoglu, and S. Wakelin
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-1909-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-1909-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
Related subject area
Approach: Numerical Models | Properties and processes: Climate and modes of variability
AdriE: a high-resolution ocean model ensemble for the Adriatic Sea under severe climate change conditions
Marine heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea: a convolutional neural network study for extreme event prediction
Ocean wave spectrum bias correction through energy conservation for climate change impacts
Far-Future Climate Projection of the Adriatic Marine Heatwaves: a kilometre-scale experiment under extreme warming
The Historical Representation and Near Future (2050) Projections of the Coral Sea Current System in CMIP6 HighResMIP
A new vision of the Adriatic Dense Water future under extreme warming
Dynamically downscaled seasonal ocean forecasts for North American east coast ecosystems
On the response of the Equatorial Atmosphere and Ocean to changes in Sea Surface Temperature along the Path of the North Equatorial Counter Current
Exploring variability in climate change projections on the Nemunas River and Curonian Lagoon: coupled SWAT and SHYFEM modeling approach
An assessment of equatorial Atlantic interannual variability in Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) simulations
Twenty-first century marine climate projections for the NW European shelf seas based on a perturbed parameter ensemble
Predictability of marine heatwaves: assessment based on the ECMWF seasonal forecast system
The Mediterranean Forecasting System – Part 1: Evolution and performance
Davide Bonaldo, Sandro Carniel, Renato R. Colucci, Cléa Denamiel, Petra Pranić, Fabio Raicich, Antonio Ricchi, Lorenzo Sangelantoni, Ivica Vilibić, and Maria Letizia Vitelletti
Ocean Sci., 21, 1003–1031, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1003-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1003-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a high-resolution modelling effort to investigate the possible end-of-century evolution of the main physical processes in the Adriatic Sea in a severe climate change scenario, with an ensemble approach (i.e. use of multiple simulations) allowing us to control the uncertainty of the predictions. Our model exhibits a satisfactory capability to reproduce the recent past and provides a basis for a set of multidisciplinary studies in this area over a multi-decadal horizon.
Antonios Parasyris, Vassiliki Metheniti, Nikolaos Kampanis, and Sofia Darmaraki
Ocean Sci., 21, 897–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-897-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-897-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Mediterranean faces more frequent and intense marine heat waves, harming ecosystems and fisheries. Using machine learning, we developed a model to forecast these events up to 7 d in the future, outperforming traditional methods. This approach enables faster, accurate forecasts, helping authorities mitigate impacts and protect marine resources.
Andrea Lira Loarca and Giovanni Besio
Ocean Sci., 21, 767–785, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-767-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-767-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A new method improves the accuracy of climate models by adjusting wave spectrum simulations in the Mediterranean Sea. It corrects biases and accounts for changes in wave patterns due to climate change, such as shifts in direction and frequency. This technique was applied to multiple climate models, assessing future wave conditions for mid-century and end-of-century scenarios. The results underline the importance of precise corrections for better predicting how waves may evolve as the climate changes.
Clea Lumina Denamiel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1363, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1363, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study advances our understanding of Adriatic Marine Heatwaves (MHWs) under historical and far-future extreme warming scenarios, emphasizing the critical role of the Po River plume and Adriatic natural variability in shaping MHW dynamics. While the Pseudo Global Warming (PGW) approach used in the study provides valuable insights, future research should adopt more comprehensive modelling frameworks to better capture the complexities of future climate change and its impacts on MHWs.
Jodie Anne Schlaefer, Clothilde Langlais, Severine Marie Choukroun, Mathieu Mongin, and Mark E. Baird
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.173282297.70109457/v1, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.173282297.70109457/v1, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We studied how the Coral Sea and South Equatorial Current may change with climate change using high resolution models. At 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming, the Coral Sea surface was projected to warm by 0.78 °C and 1.12 °C, respectfully. Temperature increases were simulated down to 400 m. The extra heat could further stress ecosystems. Two of the South Equatorial Current jets were projected to decrease in strength and one increased, which could affect the circulation features they feed.
Cléa Denamiel, Iva Tojčić, and Petra Pranić
Ocean Sci., 21, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-37-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-37-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We use a high-resolution atmosphere–ocean model to project Adriatic Dense Water dynamics under extreme warming. We find that a 15 % increase in sea surface evaporation will offset a 25 % decrease in extreme windstorms. As a result, future dense water will form at the same rate as today but will be too light to reach the Adriatic's deepest parts, making deep-water presence reliant on exchanges with the Ionian Sea.
Andrew C. Ross, Charles A. Stock, Vimal Koul, Thomas L. Delworth, Feiyu Lu, Andrew Wittenberg, and Michael A. Alexander
Ocean Sci., 20, 1631–1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1631-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we use a high-resolution regional ocean model to downscale seasonal ocean forecasts from the Seamless System for Prediction and EArth System Research (SPEAR) model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). We find that the downscaled model has significantly higher prediction skill in many cases.
David John Webb
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3560, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3560, 2024
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
A modern climate model is used to test the hypothesis that changes observed during El Niños are, in part, forced by changes in the temperature of the North Equatorial Counter Current. This is a warm current that flows eastwards across the Pacific, a few degrees north of the Equator, close to the Inter-Tropical Convection Zone, a major region of deep atmospheric convection. The tests generate a significant El Niño type response in the ocean, giving confidence that the hypothesis is correct.
Natalja Čerkasova, Jovita Mėžinė, Rasa Idzelytė, Jūratė Lesutienė, Ali Ertürk, and Georg Umgiesser
Ocean Sci., 20, 1123–1147, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1123-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study advances the understanding of climate projection variability in the Nemunas River, Curonian Lagoon, and southeastern Baltic Sea continuum by analyzing a subset of climate models with a focus on a coupled ocean and drainage basin model. This study investigates the variability and trends in environmental parameters, such as water fluxes, timing, nutrient load, water temperature, ice cover, and saltwater intrusions in Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios.
Arthur Prigent and Riccardo Farneti
Ocean Sci., 20, 1067–1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1067-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1067-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the eastern equatorial Atlantic's (EEA's) seasonal cycle and interannual variability in the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project Phases 1 and 2 (OMIP1 and OMIP2) for 1985–2004. While both simulate EEA patterns, biases like a diffusive thermocline and insufficient cooling exist during the development of the Atlantic cold tongue. OMIP1 exhibits 51% (33%) larger interannual sea surface temperature (sea surface height) variability than OMIP2, attributed to differences in wind forcing.
Jonathan Tinker, Matthew D. Palmer, Benjamin J. Harrison, Enda O'Dea, David M. H. Sexton, Kuniko Yamazaki, and John W. Rostron
Ocean Sci., 20, 835–885, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-835-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-835-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The northwest European shelf (NWS) seas are economically and environmentally important but poorly represented in global climate models (GCMs). We combine use of a shelf sea model with GCM output to provide improved 21st century projections of the NWS. We project a NWS warming of 3.11 °C and freshening of −1.01, and we provide uncertainty estimates. We calculate the climate signal emergence and consider warming levels. We have released our data for the UK's Climate Change Risk Assessment.
Eric de Boisséson and Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda
Ocean Sci., 20, 265–278, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-265-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Marine heatwaves are long periods of extremely warm ocean surface temperatures. Predicting such events a few months in advance would help decision-making to mitigate their impacts on marine ecosystems. This work investigates how well operational seasonal forecasts can predict marine heatwaves. Results show that such events can be predicted a few months in advance in the tropics but that extending the predictability skill to other regions will require additional work on the forecast models.
Giovanni Coppini, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Stefano Salon, Gerasimos Korres, Michalis Ravdas, Rita Lecci, Jenny Pistoia, Anna Chiara Goglio, Massimiliano Drudi, Alessandro Grandi, Ali Aydogdu, Romain Escudier, Andrea Cipollone, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Antonio Mariani, Sergio Cretì, Francesco Palermo, Matteo Scuro, Simona Masina, Nadia Pinardi, Antonio Navarra, Damiano Delrosso, Anna Teruzzi, Valeria Di Biagio, Giorgio Bolzon, Laura Feudale, Gianluca Coidessa, Carolina Amadio, Alberto Brosich, Arnau Miró, Eva Alvarez, Paolo Lazzari, Cosimo Solidoro, Charikleia Oikonomou, and Anna Zacharioudaki
Ocean Sci., 19, 1483–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1483-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1483-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents the Mediterranean Forecasting System evolution and performance developed in the framework of the Copernicus Marine Service.
Cited articles
Amaya, D. J., Miller, A. J., Xie, S. P., and Kosaka, Y.: Physical drivers of the summer 2019 North Pacific marine heatwave, Nat. Commun., 11, 1, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15820-w, 2020.
Amaya, D. J., Jacox, M. G., Alexander, M. A., Scott, J. D., Deser, C., Capotondi, A., and Phillips, A. S.: Bottom marine heatwaves along the continental shelves of North America, Nat. Commun., 14, 1, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36567-0, 2023a.
Amaya, D. J., Jacox, M. G., Fewings, M. R., Saba, V. S., Stuecker, M. F., Rykaczewski, R. R., Ross, A. C., Stock, C. A., Capotondi, A., Petrik, C. M., and Bograd, S. J.: Marine heatwaves need clear definitions so coastal communities can adapt, Nature, 616, 29–32, 2023b.
Arafeh-Dalmau, N., Montaño-Moctezuma, G., Martinez, J. A., Beas-Luna, R., Schoeman, D. S., and Torres-Moye, G.: Extreme Marine Heatwaves alter kelp forest community near its equatorward distribution limit, Front. Mar. Sci., 6, 499, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00499, 2019.
Arias-Ortiz, A., Serrano, O., Masqué, P., Lavery, P. S., Mueller, U., Kendrick, G. A., Rozaimi, M., Esteban, A., Fourqurean, J. W., Marbà, N., Mateo, M. A., Murray, K., Rule, M. J., and Duarte, C. M.: A marine heatwave drives massive losses from the world's largest seagrass carbon stocks, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 338–344, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0096-y, 2018.
Atkinson, J., King, N. G., Wilmes, S. B., and Moore, P. J.: Summer and Winter Marine Heatwaves Favor an Invasive Over Native Seaweeds, J. Phycol., 56, 1591–1600, 2020.
Azarian, C., Bopp, L., Pietri, A., Sallée, J. B., and d'Ovidio, F.: Current and projected patterns of warming and marine heatwaves in the Southern Indian Ocean, Prog. Oceanogr., 215, 103036, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2023.103036, 2023.
Bass, A. V., Smith, K. E., and Smale, D. A.: Marine heatwaves and decreased light availability interact to erode the ecophysiological performance of habitat-forming kelp species, J. Phycol., 59, 481–495, 2023.
Berthou, S., Renshaw, R., Smyth, T., Tinker, J., Grist, J. P., Wihsgott, J. U., Jones, S., Inall, M., Nolan, G., Berx, B., Arnold, A., Blunn, L. P., Castillo, J. M., Cotterill, D., Daly, E., Dow, G., Gómez, B., Fraser-Leonhardt, V., Hirschi, J. J. M., Lewis, H. W., Mahmood, S., and Worsfold, M.: Exceptional atmospheric conditions in June 2023 generated a northwest European marine heatwave which contributed to breaking land temperature records, Commun. Earth Environ., 5, 287, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01413-8, 2024.
Boucher, O., Servonnat, J., Albright, A. L., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y., Bastrikov, V., Bekki, S., Bonnet, R., Bony, S., Bopp, L., Braconnot, P., Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Caubel, A., Cheruy, F., Codron, F., Cozic, A., Cugnet, D., D'Andrea, F., Davini, P., de Lavergne, C., Denvil, S., Deshayes, J., Devilliers, M., Ducharne, A., Dufresne, J.-L., Dupont, E., Éthé, C., Fairhead, L., Falletti, L., Flavoni, S., Foujols, M.-A., Gardoll, S., Gastineau, G., Ghattas, J., Grandpeix, J.-Y., Guenet, B., Guez, E., Lionel, Guilyardi, E., Guimberteau, M., Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Idelkadi, A., Joussaume, S., Kageyama, M., Khodri, M., Krinner, G., Lebas, N., Levavasseur, G., Lévy, C., Li, L., Lott, F., Lurton, T., Luyssaert, S., Madec, G., Madeleine, J.-B., Maignan, F., Marchand, M., Marti, O., Mellul, L., Meurdesoif, Y., Mignot, J., Musat, I., Ottlé, C., Peylin, P., Planton, Y., Polcher, J., Rio, C., Rochetin, N., Rousset, C., Sepulchre, P., Sima, A., Swingedouw, D., Thiéblemont, R., Traore, A. K., Vancoppenolle, M., Vial, J., Vialard, J., Viovy, N., and Vuichard, N.: Presentation and Evaluation of the IPSL-CM6A-LR Climate Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS002010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002010, 2020.
Brodeur, R. D., Auth, T. D., and Phillips, A. J.: Major shifts in pelagic micronekton and macrozooplankton community structure in an upwelling ecosystem related to an unprecedented marine heatwave, Front. Mar. Sci., 6, 212, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00212, 2019.
Butenschön, M., Clark, J., Aldridge, J. N., Allen, J. I., Artioli, Y., Blackford, J., Bruggeman, J., Cazenave, P., Ciavatta, S., Kay, S., Lessin, G., van Leeuwen, S., van der Molen, J., de Mora, L., Polimene, L., Sailley, S., Stephens, N., and Torres, R.: ERSEM 15.06: a generic model for marine biogeochemistry and the ecosystem dynamics of the lower trophic levels, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1293–1339, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1293-2016, 2016.
Ceccherelli, G., Campo, D., and Milazzo, M.: Short-term response of the slow growing seagrass Posidonia oceanica to simulated anchor impact, Mar. Env. Res., 63, 341–349, 2007.
Chandrapavan, A., Caputi, N., and Kangas, M. I.: The decline and recovery of a crab population from an extreme marine heatwave and a changing climate, Front. Mar. Sci., 6, 510, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00510, 2019.
Cheng, Y., Zhang, M., Song, Z., Wang, G., Zhao, C., Shu, Q., Zhang, Y., and Qiao, F.: A quantitative analysis of marine heatwaves in response to rising sea surface temperature, Sci. Total Environ., 881, 163396, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163396, 2023.
Culhane, F. E., Frid, C. L., Gelabert, E. R., Piet, G., White, L., and Robinson, L. A.: Assessing the capacity of European regional seas to supply ecosystem services using marine status assessments, Ocean Coast. Manage., 190, 105–154, 2020.
Darmaraki, S., Somot, S., Sevault, F., and Nabat, P.: Past Variability of Mediterranean Sea Marine Heatwaves, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 9813–9823, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082933, 2019.
Drenkard, E. J., Stock, C., Ross, A. C., Dixon, K. W., Adcroft, A., Alexander, M., Balaji, V., Bograd, S. J., Butenschön, M., Cheng, W., and Curchitser, E.: Next-generation regional ocean projections for living marine resource management in a changing climate, ICES J. Mar. Sci., 78, 1969–1987, 2021.
Dunne, J. P., Horowitz, L. W. , Adcroft, A. J., Ginoux, P. , Held, I. M., John, J. G., Krasting, J. P., Malyshev, S., Naik, V., Paulot, F., Shevliakova, E., Stock, C. A., Zadeh, N., Balaji, V., Blanton, C., Dunne, K. A., Dupuis, C., Durachta, J., Dussin, R., Gauthier, P. P. G., Griffies, S. M., Guo, H., Hallberg, R. W., Harrison, M., He, J., Hurlin, W., McHugh, C., Menzel, R., Milly, P. C. D., Nikonov, S., Paynter, D. J., Ploshay, J., Radhakrishnan, A., Rand, K., Reichl, B. G., Robinson, T., Schwarzkopf, D. M., Sentman, L. A., Underwood, S., Vahlenkamp, H., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A. T., Wyman, B., Zeng, Y., and Zhao, M.: The GFDL Earth System Model version 4.1 (GFDL-ESM4.1): Model description and simulation characteristics, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, 2019MS002008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002015, 2020.
du Pontavice, H., Gascuel, D., Kay, S., and Cheung, W. W. L.: Climate-induced changes in ocean productivity and food-web functioning are projected to markedly affect European fisheries catch, Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser., 713, 21–37, https://doi.org/10.3354/meps14328, 2023.
Filbee-Dexter, K., Wernberg, T., Grace, S. P., Thormar, J., Fredriksen, S., Narvaez, C. N., Feehan, C. J., Norderhaug, K. M.: Marine heatwaves and the collapse of marginal North Atlantic kelp forests, Sci. Rep.-UK, 10, 13388, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-70273-x, 2020.
Galli, G., Wakelin, S., Harle, J., Holt, J., and Artioli, Y.: Multi-model comparison of trends and controls of near-bed oxygen concentration on the northwest European continental shelf under climate change, Biogeosciences, 21, 2143–2158, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2143-2024, 2024.
Giménez, L., Boersma, M., and Wiltshire, K. H.: A multiple baseline approach for marine heatwaves, Limnol. Oceanogr., 69, 638–651, 2024.
Good, S. A., Fiedler, E., Mao, C., Martin, M. J., Maycock, A., Reid, R., Roberts-Jones, J., Searle, T., Waters, J., While, J., and Worsfold, M.: The current configuration of the OSTIA system for operational production of foundation sea surface temperature and ice concentration analyses, Remote Sens.-Basel, 12, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12040720, 2020.
Gräwe, U., Holtermann, P., Klingbeil, K., and Burchard, H.: Advantages of vertically adaptive coordinates in numerical models of stratified shelf seas, Ocean Model., 92, 56–68, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2015.05.008, 2015.
Gurgel, C. F. D., Camacho, O., Minne, A. J. P., Wernberg, T., and Coleman, M. A.: Marine Heatwave Drives Cryptic Loss of Genetic Diversity in Underwater Forests, Curr. Biol., 30, 1199–1206.e2, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2020.01.051, 2020.
Halpern, B. S., Walbridge, S., Selkoe, K. A., Kappel, C. V., Micheli, F., d'Agrosa, C., Bruno, J. F., Casey, K. S., Ebert, C., Fox, H. E., and Fujita, R.: A global map of human impact on marine ecosystems, Science, 319, 948–952, 2008.
Hausfather, Z. and Peters, G. P.: Emissions – the “business as usual” story is misleading, Nature, 577, 618–620, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3, 2020.
He, Q., Zhan, W., Feng, M., Gong, Y., and Cai, S.: Common occurrences of subsurface heatwaves and cold spells in ocean eddies, Nature, 634, 1111–1117, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-08051-2, 2024.
Hermans, T. H. J., Tinker, J., Palmer, M. D., Katsman, C. A., Vermeersen, B. L. A., and Slangen, A. B. A.: Improving sea-level projections on the Northwestern European shelf using dynamical downscaling, Clim. Dynam., 54, 1987–2011, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05104-5, 2020.
Hiddink, J. G., Burrows, M. T., and García Molinos, J.: Temperature tracking by North Sea benthic invertebrates in response to climate change, Glob. Change Biol., 21, 117–129, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12726, 2015.
Hobday, A. J., Alexander, L. V., Perkins, S. E., Smale, D. A., Straub, S. C., Oliver, E. C. J., Benthuysen, J. A., Burrows, M. T., Donat, M. G., Feng, M., Holbrook, N. J., Moore, P. J., Scannell, H. A., Sen Gupta, A., and Wernberg, T.: A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves, Prog. Oceanogr., 141, 227–238, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2015.12.014, 2016.
Hobday, A. J., Spillman, C. M., Eveson, J. P., Hartog, J. R., Zhang, X., and Brodie, S.: A framework for combining seasonal forecasts and climate projections to aid risk management for fisheries and aquaculture, Front. Mar. Sci., 5, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2018.00137, 2018.
Holt, J., Wakelin, S., Lowe, J., and Tinker, J.: The potential impacts of climate change on the hydrography of the northwest European continental shelf, Prog. Oceanogr., 86, 361–379, 2010.
Holt, J., Schrum, C., Cannaby, H., Daewel, U., Allen, I., Artioli, Y., Bopp, L., Butenschon, M., Fach, B. A., Harle, J., Pushpadas, D., Salihoglu, B., and Wakelin, S.: Potential impacts of climate change on the primary production of regional seas: A comparative analysis of five European seas, Prog. Oceanogr., 140, 91–115, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2015.11.004, 2016.
Holt, J., Hyder, P., Ashworth, M., Harle, J., Hewitt, H. T., Liu, H., New, A. L., Pickles, S., Porter, A., Popova, E., Allen, J. I., Siddorn, J., and Wood, R.: Prospects for improving the representation of coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 499–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-499-2017, 2017.
Holt, J., Polton, J., Huthnance, J., Wakelin, S., O'Dea, E., Harle, J., Yool, A., Artioli, Y., Blackford, J., Siddorn, J., and Inall, M.: Climate-Driven Change in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans Can Greatly Reduce the Circulation of the North Sea, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 11827–11836, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078878, 2018.
Holt, J., Harle, J., Wakelin, S., Jardine, J., and Hopkins, J.: Why Is Seasonal Density Stratification in Shelf Seas Expected to Increase Under Future Climate Change?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL100448, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100448 2022a.
Holt, J., Harle, J., and Wakelin, S.: NOC NEMO RECICLE Output Delivered through Jasmin, NOC [data set], https://gws-access.jasmin.ac.uk/public/recicle/ (last access: 3 August 2024), 2022b.
Jacobs, Z. L., Jebri, F., Wakelin, S., Strong, J., Popova, E., Srokosz, M., and Loveridge, A.: Marine heatwaves and cold spells in the Northeast Atlantic: what should the UK be prepared for?, Front. Mar. Sci., 11, 1434365, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2024.1434365, 2024.
Jones, C. D., Hughes, J. K., Bellouin, N., Hardiman, S. C., Jones, G. S., Knight, J., Liddicoat, S., O'Connor, F. M., Andres, R. J., Bell, C., Boo, K.-O., Bozzo, A., Butchart, N., Cadule, P., Corbin, K. D., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Friedlingstein, P., Gornall, J., Gray, L., Halloran, P. R., Hurtt, G., Ingram, W. J., Lamarque, J.-F., Law, R. M., Meinshausen, M., Osprey, S., Palin, E. J., Parsons Chini, L., Raddatz, T., Sanderson, M. G., Sellar, A. A., Schurer, A., Valdes, P., Wood, N., Woodward, S., Yoshioka, M., and Zerroukat, M.: The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 543–570, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-543-2011, 2011.
Jones, T., Parrish, J. K., Peterson, W. T., Bjorkstedt, E. P., Bond, N. A., Ballance, L. T., Bowes, V., Hipfner, J. M., Burgess, H. K., Dolliver, J. E., Lindquist, K., Lindsey, J., Nevins, H. M., Robertson, R. R., Roletto, J., Wilson, L., Joyce, T., and Harvey, J.: Massive Mortality of a Planktivorous Seabird in Response to a Marine Heatwave, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 3193–3202, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076164, 2018.
Kay, S., Avillanosa, A. L., Cheung, V. V., Dao, H. N., Gonzales, B. J., Palla, H. P., Praptiwi, R. A., Queiros, A. M., Sailley, S. F., Sumeldan, J. D., and Syazwan, W. M.: Projected effects of climate change on marine ecosystems in Southeast Asian seas, Front. Mar. Sci., 10, 495, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1082170, 2023.
Kajtar, J. B., Hernaman, V., Holbrook, N. J., and Petrelli, P.: Tropical western and central Pacific marine heatwave data calculated from gridded sea surface temperature observations and CMIP6, Data in Brief, 40, 107694, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2021.107694, 2022.
Leggat, W. P., Camp, E. F., Suggett, D. J., Heron, S. F., Fordyce, A. J., Gardner, S., Deakin, L., Turner, M., Beeching, L. J., Kuzhiumparambil, U., Eakin, C. M., and Ainsworth, T. D.: Rapid Coral Decay Is Associated with Marine Heatwave Mortality Events on Reefs, Current Biol., 29, 2723–2730.e4, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2019.06.077, 2019.
le Nohaïc, M., Ross, C. L., Cornwall, C. E., Comeau, S., Lowe, R., McCulloch, M. T., and Schoepf, V.: Marine heatwave causes unprecedented regional mass bleaching of thermally resistant corals in northwestern Australia, Sci. Rep.-UK, 7, 14999, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-14794-y, 2017.
Li, X. and Donner, S.: Assessing Future Projections of Warm-Season Marine Heatwave Characteristics With Three CMIP6 Models, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 128, e2022JC019253, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JC019253, 2023.
Marin, M., Feng, M., Phillips, H. E., and Bindoff, N. L.: A Global, Multiproduct Analysis of Coastal Marine Heatwaves: Distribution, Characteristics, and Long-Term Trends, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 126, e2020JC016708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016708, 2021.
Mohamed, B., Barth, A., and Alvera-Azcárate, A.: Extreme marine heatwaves and cold-spells events in the Southern North Sea: classifications, patterns, and trends, Front. Mar. Sci., 10, 1258117, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1258117, 2023.
Nielsen, J. M., Rogers, L. A., Brodeur, R. D., Thompson, A. R., Auth, T. D., Deary, A. L., Duffy-Anderson, J. T., Galbraith, M., Koslow, J. A., and Perry, R. I.: Responses of ichthyoplankton assemblages to the recent marine heatwave and previous climate fluctuations in several Northeast Pacific marine ecosystems, Glob. Change Biol., 27, 506–520, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15415, 2021.
O'Dea, E., Furner, R., Wakelin, S., Siddorn, J., While, J., Sykes, P., King, R., Holt, J., and Hewitt, H.: The CO5 configuration of the 7 km Atlantic Margin Model: large-scale biases and sensitivity to forcing, physics options and vertical resolution, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2947–2969, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2947-2017, 2017.
Oliver, E. C. J., Donat, M. G., Burrows, M. T., Moore, P. J., Smale, D. A., Alexander, L. v., Benthuysen, J. A., Feng, M., sen Gupta, A., Hobday, A. J., Holbrook, N. J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., Scannell, H. A., Straub, S. C., and Wernberg, T.: Longer and more frequent marine heatwaves over the past century, Nat. Comm., 9, 1324, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-03732-9, 2018a.
Oliver, E. C. J., Lago, V., Hobday, A. J., Holbrook, N. J., Ling, S. D., and Mundy, C. N.: Marine heatwaves off eastern Tasmania: Trends, interannual variability, and predictability, Prog. Oceanogr., 161, 116–130, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2018.02.007, 2018b.
Oliver, E. C. J., Burrows, M. T., Donat, M. G., sen Gupta, A., Alexander, L. v., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., Benthuysen, J. A., Hobday, A. J., Holbrook, N. J., Moore, P. J., Thomsen, M. S., Wernberg, T., and Smale, D. A.: Projected Marine Heatwaves in the 21st Century and the Potential for Ecological Impact, Front. Mar. Sci., 6, 734, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00734, 2019.
Oliver, E. C. J., Benthuysen, J. A., Darmaraki, S., Donat, M. G., Hobday, A. J., Holbrook, N. J., Schlegel, R. W., and Gupta, A. sen.: Marine Heatwaves, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 13, 313–342, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-032720-095144, 2021.
Palmer, S. C. J., Barillé, L., Kay, S., Ciavatta, S., Buck, B., and Gernez, P.: Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) growth modelling and indicators for offshore aquaculture in Europe under climate change uncertainty, Aquaculture, 532, 736116, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2020.736116, 2021.
Pearce, A., Lenanton, R., Jackson, G., Moore, J., Feng, M., and Gaughan, D.: The “marine heat wave” off Western Australia during the summer of 2010/11, Fisheries Research Report No. 222, Department of Fisheries, Western Australia, 40 pp., https://library.dpird.wa.gov.au/fr_rr/15/ (last access: 21 March 2024), 2011.
Pershing, A. J., Mills, K. E., Dayton, A. M., Franklin, B. S., and Kennedy, B. T.: Evidence for adaptation from the 2016 marine heatwave in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean, Oceanography, 31, 152–161, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2018.213, 2018.
Piatt, J. F., Parrish, J. K., Renner, H. M., Schoen, S. K., Jones, T., Arimitsu, M. L., Kuletz, K. J., Bodenstein, B. L., García-Reyes, M., Duerr, R. S., Corcoran, R. M., Kaler, R. S. A., McChesney, G. J., Golightly, R. T., Coletti, H. A., Suryan, R. M., Burgess, H. K., Lindsey, J., Lindquist, K., Warzybok, P. M., Jahncke, J., Roletto, J., and Sydeman, W. J.: Extreme mortality, reproductive failure of common murres resulting from the northeast Pacific marine heatwave of 2014–2016, PLOS ONE, 15, e0226087, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0226087, 2020.
Plecha, S. M. and Soares, P. M. M.: Global marine heatwave events using the new CMIP6 multi-model ensemble: From shortcomings in present climate to future projections, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 124058, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc847, 2019.
Qiu, Z., Qiao, F., Jang, C. J., Zhang, L., and Song, Z.: Evaluation and projection of global marine heatwaves based on CMIP6 models, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II, 194, 104998, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2021.104998, 2021.
Queirós, A. M., Talbot, E., Beaumont, N. J., Somerfield, P. J., Kay, S., Pascoe, C., Dedman, S., Fernandes, J. A., Jueterbock, A., Miller, P. I., Sailley, S. F., Sara, G., Carr, L. M., Austen, M. C., Widdicombe, S., Rilov, G., Levin, L. A., Hull, S. C., Walmsley, S. F., and Aonghusa, C. N.: Bright spots as climate-smart marine spatial planning tools for conservation and blue growth, Glob. Change Biol., 27, 5514–5531, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15827, 2021.
Queirós, A. M., Tait, K., Clark, J. R., Bedington, M., Pascoe, C., Torres, R., Somerfield, P. J., and Smale, D. A.: Identifying and protecting macroalgae detritus sinks toward climate change mitigation, Ecol. Appl., 33, e2798, https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2798, 2023.
Roberts, S. D., van Ruth, P. D., Wilkinson, C., Bastianello, S. S., and Bansemer, M. S.: Marine Heatwave, Harmful Algae Blooms and an Extensive Fish Kill Event During 2013 in South Australia, Front. Mar. Sci., 6, 610, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00610, 2019.
Rosselló, P., Pascual, A., and Combes, V.: Assessing marine heat waves in the Mediterranean Sea: a comparison of fixed and moving baseline methods, Front. Mar. Sci., 10, 1168368, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1168368, 2023.
Savva, I., Bennett, S., Roca, G., Jordà, G., and Marbà, N.: Thermal tolerance of Mediterranean marine macrophytes: Vulnerability to global warming, Ecol. Evol., 8, 12032–12043, 2018.
Scafetta, N.: Advanced Testing of Low, Medium, and High ECS CMIP6 GCM Simulations Versus ERA5-T2m, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097716, 2022.
Scannell, H. A., Pershing, A. J., Alexander, M. A., Thomas, A. C., and Mills, K. E.: Frequency of marine heatwaves in the North Atlantic and North Pacific since 1950, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2069–2076, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067308, 2016.
Sen Gupta, A., Thomsen, M., Benthuysen, J. A., Hobday, A. J., Oliver, E., Alexander, L. V., Burrows, M. T., Donat, M. G., Feng, M., Holbrook, N. J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S., Moore, P. J., Rodrigues, R. R., Scannell, H. A., Taschetto, A. S., Ummenhofer, C. C., Wernberg, T., and Smale, D. A.: Drivers and impacts of the most extreme marine heatwave events, Sci. Rep.-UK, 10, 1–15, 2020.
Shanks, A. L., Rasmuson, L. K., Valley, J. R., Jarvis, M. A., Salant, C., Sutherland, D. A., Lamont, E. I., MacKenna, A. H., and Emlet, R. B.: Marine heat waves, climate change, and failed spawning by coastal invertebrates, Limnol. Oceanogr., 65, 627–636, 2020.
Smale, D. A., Wernberg, T., and Vanderklift, M. A.: Regional-scale variability in the response of benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages to a marine heatwave, Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser., 568, 17–30, https://doi.org/10.3354/meps12080, 2017.
Smith, K. E., Burrows, M. T., Hobday, A. J., King, N. G., Moore, P. J., Sen Gupta, A., Thomsen, M. S., Wernberg, T., and Smale, D. A.: Biological impacts of marine heatwaves, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 15, 119–145, 2023.
Somero, G. N.: The physiology of climate change: how potentials for acclimatization and genetic adaptation will determine `winners' and `losers', J. Exp. Biol., 213, 912–920, 2010.
Song, Q., Yao, Y., and Wang, C.: Response of Future Summer Marine Heatwaves in the South China Sea to Enhanced Western Pacific Subtropical High, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2023GL103667, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103667, 2023.
Strydom, S., Murray, K., Wilson, S., Huntley, B., Rule, M., Heithaus, M., Bessey, C., Kendrick, G. A., Burkholder, D., Fraser, M. W., and Zdunic, K.: Too hot to handle: Unprecedented seagrass death driven by marine heatwave in a World Heritage Area, Glob. ChangE Biol., 26, 3525–3538, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15065, 2020.
Sun, D., Li, F., Jing, Z., Hu, S., and Zhang, B.: Frequent marine heatwaves hidden below the surface of the global ocean, Nat. Geosci., 16, 1099–1104, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01325-w, 2023a.
Sun, W., Yin, L., Pei, Y., Shen, C., Yang, Y., Ji, J., Yang, J., and Dong, C.: Marine heatwaves in the Western North Pacific Region: Historical characteristics and future projections, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. I, 200, 104161, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr.2023.104161, 2023b.
Swart, N. C., Cole, J. N. S., Kharin, V. V., Lazare, M., Scinocca, J. F., Gillett, N. P., Anstey, J., Arora, V., Christian, J. R., Hanna, S., Jiao, Y., Lee, W. G., Majaess, F., Saenko, O. A., Seiler, C., Seinen, C., Shao, A., Sigmond, M., Solheim, L., von Salzen, K., Yang, D., and Winter, B.: The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5.0.3), Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4823–4873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4823-2019, 2019.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498, 2012.
Thomsen, M. S., Mondardini, L., Alestra, T., Gerrity, S., Tait, L., South, P. M., Lilley, S. A., and Schiel, D. R.: Local Extinction of bull kelp (Durvillaea spp.) due to a marine heatwave, Front. Mar. Sci., 6, 84, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00084, 2019.
Tonani, M., Sykes, P., King, R. R., McConnell, N., Péquignet, A.-C., O'Dea, E., Graham, J. A., Polton, J., and Siddorn, J.: The impact of a new high-resolution ocean model on the Met Office North-West European Shelf forecasting system, Ocean Sci., 15, 1133–1158, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1133-2019, 2019.
Townhill, B. L., Couce, E., Tinker, J., Kay, S., and Pinnegar, J. K.: Climate change projections of commercial fish distribution and suitable habitat around north western Europe, Fish Fish., 24, 848–862, https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12773, 2023.
Van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Thomson, A., Riahi, K., Kainuma, M., Matsui, T., Hurtt, G. C., Lamarque, J.-F., Meinshausen, M., Smith, S., Granier, C., Rose, S. K., and Hibbard, K. A.: Representative Concentration Pathways: An overview, Climatic Change, 109, 5, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z, 2010.
Voldoire, A., Sanchez-Gomez, E., Salas y Mélia, D., Decharme, B., Cassou, C., Sénési, S., Valcke, S., Beau, I., Alias, A. Chevallier, M., Déqué, M., Deshayes, J., Douville, H., Fernandez, E., Madec, G., Maisonnave , E., Moine, M.-P., Planton, S., Saint-Martin, D., Szopa, S., Tyteca, S., Alkama, R., Belamari, S., Braun, A., Coquart, L., and Chauvin, F.: The CNRM-CM5.1 global climate model: description and basic evaluation, Clim. Dynam., 40, 2091–2121, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1259-y, 2013.
Wakelin, S. L., Artioli, Y., Holt, J. T., Butenschön, M., and Blackford, J.: Controls on near-bed oxygen concentration on the Northwest European Continental Shelf under a potential future climate scenario, Prog. Oceanogr., 187, 102400, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2020.102400, 2020.
Watanabe, S., Hajima, T., Sudo, K., Nagashima, T., Takemura, T., Okajima, H., Nozawa, T., Kawase, H., Abe, M., Yokohata, T., Ise, T., Sato, H., Kato, E., Takata, K., Emori, S., and Kawamiya, M.: MIROC-ESM 2010: model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 845–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-845-2011, 2011.
Wild, S., Krützen, M., Rankin, R. W., Hoppitt, W. J. E., Gerber, L., and Allen, S. J.: Long-term decline in survival and reproduction of dolphins following a marine heatwave, Curr. Biol., 29, R239–R240, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2019.02.047, 2019.
Wilson, R. J., Kay, S., and Ciavatta, S.: Partitioning climate uncertainty in ecological projections: Pacific oysters in a hotter Europe, Eco. Inform., 80, 102537, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2024.102537, 2024.
Xue, J., Shan, H., Liang, J. H., and Dong, C.: Assessment and Projections of Marine Heatwaves in the Northwest Pacific Based on CMIP6 Models, Remote Sens.-Basel, 15, 2957, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15122957, 2023.
Yao, Y., Wang, C., and Wang, C.: Record-breaking 2020 summer marine heatwaves in the western North Pacific, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II, 209, 105288, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2023.105288, 2023.
Short summary
Marine heatwaves are of growing concern around the world. We use a state-of-the-art ensemble of downscaled climate models to project how often heatwaves will occur in the future across northwestern Europe under a high-emission scenario. The projections show that, without emission reductions, heatwaves will occur more than half of the time in the future. We show that the seafloor is expected to experience much more frequent heatwaves than the sea surface in the future.
Marine heatwaves are of growing concern around the world. We use a state-of-the-art ensemble of...
