Articles | Volume 21, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1205-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1205-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
02 Jul 2025
Research article |
| 02 Jul 2025
| 02 Jul 2025
Simulated density reorganization on the Weddell Sea continental shelf sensitive to atmospheric forcing
Department of Biogeochemical Modelling, GEOMAR, 24148 Kiel, Germany
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
Ralph Timmermann
Department of Biogeochemical Modelling, GEOMAR, 24148 Kiel, Germany
Cara Nissen
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Department of Freshwater and Marine Ecology, Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
Rolf Zentek
Department of Environmental Meteorology, University of Trier, 54286 Trier, Germany
German Weather Service, 63067 Offenbach, Germany
Tido Semmler
Department of Biogeochemical Modelling, GEOMAR, 24148 Kiel, Germany
Met Éireann, 65–67 Glasnevin Hill, D09 Y921 Dublin, Ireland
Günther Heinemann
Department of Environmental Meteorology, University of Trier, 54286 Trier, Germany
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Umesh Dubey, Sascha Willmes, and Günther Heinemann
The Cryosphere, 19, 3535–3552, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3535-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3535-2025, 2025
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Sea-ice leads facilitate the exchange of heat and moisture between the ocean and the atmosphere during wintertime. We present a new dataset on monthly wintertime sea-ice leads in the Southern Ocean from 2003 to 2023. Our study reveals distinct regional patterns, seasonal variability, and small but significant trends. Here, we present initial findings on Southern Ocean lead dynamics to support future research into the complex pan-Antarctic interactions among sea ice, ocean, and atmosphere.
Ja-Yeon Moon, Jan Streffing, Sun-Seon Lee, Tido Semmler, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Jiao Chen, Eun-Byeoul Cho, Jung-Eun Chu, Christian L. E. Franzke, Jan P. Gärtner, Rohit Ghosh, Jan Hegewald, Songyee Hong, Dae-Won Kim, Nikolay Koldunov, June-Yi Lee, Zihao Lin, Chao Liu, Svetlana N. Loza, Wonsun Park, Woncheol Roh, Dmitry V. Sein, Sahil Sharma, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jun-Hyeok Son, Malte F. Stuecker, Qiang Wang, Gyuseok Yi, Martina Zapponini, Thomas Jung, and Axel Timmermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1103–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1103-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1103-2025, 2025
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Based on a series of storm-resolving greenhouse warming simulations conducted with the AWI-CM3 model at 9 km global atmosphere and 4–25 km ocean resolution, we present new projections of regional climate change, modes of climate variability, and extreme events. The 10-year-long high-resolution simulations for the 2000s, 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s were initialized from a coarser-resolution transient run (31 km atmosphere) which follows the SSP5-8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenario from 1950–2100 CE.
Claire K. Yung, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alistair Adcroft, Christopher Y. S. Bull, Jan De Rydt, Michael S. Dinniman, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Daniel Goldberg, David E. Gwyther, Robert Hallberg, Matthew Harrison, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, James R. Jordan, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Kazuya Kusahara, Gustavo Marques, Pierre Mathiot, Dimitris Menemenlis, Adele K. Morrison, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Olga Sergienko, Robin S. Smith, Alon Stern, Ralph Timmermann, and Qin Zhou
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1942, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1942, 2025
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ISOMIP+ compares 12 ocean models that simulate ice-ocean interactions in a common, idealised, static ice shelf cavity setup, aiming to assess and understand inter-model variability. Models simulate similar basal melt rate patterns, ocean profiles and circulation but differ in ice-ocean boundary layer properties and spatial distributions of melting. Ice-ocean boundary layer representation is a key area for future work, as are realistic-domain ice sheet-ocean model intercomparisons.
Ole Richter, Ralph Timmermann, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Jan De Rydt
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2945–2960, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2945-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2945-2025, 2025
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The new coupled ice sheet–ocean model addresses challenges related to horizontal resolution through advanced mesh flexibility, enabled by the use of unstructured grids. We describe the new model, verify its functioning in an idealised setting and demonstrate its advantages in a global-ocean–Antarctic ice sheet domain. The results of this study comprise an important step towards improving predictions of the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise over centennial timescales.
Torsten Kanzow, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Mölg, Mirko Scheinert, Matthias Braun, Hans Burchard, Francesca Doglioni, Philipp Hochreuther, Martin Horwath, Oliver Huhn, Maria Kappelsberger, Jürgen Kusche, Erik Loebel, Katrina Lutz, Ben Marzeion, Rebecca McPherson, Mahdi Mohammadi-Aragh, Marco Möller, Carolyne Pickler, Markus Reinert, Monika Rhein, Martin Rückamp, Janin Schaffer, Muhammad Shafeeque, Sophie Stolzenberger, Ralph Timmermann, Jenny Turton, Claudia Wekerle, and Ole Zeising
The Cryosphere, 19, 1789–1824, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1789-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1789-2025, 2025
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The Greenland Ice Sheet represents the second-largest contributor to global sea-level rise. We quantify atmosphere, ice and ocean processes related to the mass balance of glaciers in northeast Greenland, focusing on Greenland’s largest floating ice tongue, the 79° N Glacier. We find that together, the different in situ and remote sensing observations and model simulations reveal a consistent picture of a coupled atmosphere–ice sheet–ocean system that has entered a phase of major change.
Benjamin Keith Galton-Fenzi, Richard Porter-Smith, Sue Cook, Eva Cougnon, David E. Gwyther, Wilma G. C. Huneke, Madelaine G. Rosevear, Xylar Asay-Davis, Fabio Boeira Dias, Michael S. Dinniman, David Holland, Kazuya Kusahara, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Keith W. Nicholls, Charles Pelletier, Ole Richter, Helene L. Seroussi, and Ralph Timmermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4047, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4047, 2025
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Melting beneath Antarctica’s floating ice shelves is key to future sea-level rise. We compare several different ocean simulations with satellite measurements, and provide the first multi-model average estimate of melting and refreezing driven by both ocean temperature and currents beneath ice shelves. The multi-model average can provide a useful tool for better understanding the role of ice shelf melting in present-day and future ice-sheet changes and informing coastal adaptation efforts.
Jan De Rydt, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Mathias van Caspel, Ralph Timmermann, Pierre Mathiot, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Hélène Seroussi, Pierre Dutrieux, Ben Galton-Fenzi, David Holland, and Ronja Reese
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7105–7139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024, 2024
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Global climate models do not reliably simulate sea-level change due to ice-sheet–ocean interactions. We propose a community modelling effort to conduct a series of well-defined experiments to compare models with observations and study how models respond to a range of perturbations in climate and ice-sheet geometry. The second Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project will continue to lay the groundwork for including ice-sheet–ocean interactions in global-scale IPCC-class models.
Shreya Trivedi, Imke Sievers, Marylou Athanase, Antonio Sánchez Benítez, and Tido Semmler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2214, 2024
Preprint archived
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Our study introduces a new method to compare CMIP6 models' sea ice and snow simulations with in-situ (MOSAiC) measurements. We assessed models for their accuracy in replicating Arctic sea ice and snow thicknesses, using two sea-ice and atmosphere-based methods to select "proxy years." We show that the models often overestimate snow thickness and mistime sea ice cycles. Despite limitations, this approach provides a valuable tool for evaluating climate models in localized time and space.
Cara Nissen, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Mathew Maltrud, Alison R. Gray, Yohei Takano, Kristen Falcinelli, Jade Sauvé, and Katherine Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6415–6435, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6415-2024, 2024
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Autonomous profiling floats have provided unprecedented observational coverage of the global ocean, but uncertainties remain about whether their sampling frequency and density capture the true spatiotemporal variability of physical, biogeochemical, and biological properties. Here, we present the novel synthetic biogeochemical float capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 and demonstrate their utility as a test bed to address these uncertainties.
Ole Zeising, Niklas Neckel, Nils Dörr, Veit Helm, Daniel Steinhage, Ralph Timmermann, and Angelika Humbert
The Cryosphere, 18, 1333–1357, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1333-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1333-2024, 2024
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The 79° North Glacier in Greenland has experienced significant changes over the last decades. Due to extreme melt rates, the ice has thinned significantly in the vicinity of the grounding line, where a large subglacial channel has formed since 2010. We attribute these changes to warm ocean currents and increased subglacial discharge from surface melt. However, basal melting has decreased since 2018, indicating colder water inflow into the cavity below the glacier.
Cara Nissen, Ralph Timmermann, Mathias van Caspel, and Claudia Wekerle
Ocean Sci., 20, 85–101, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-85-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-85-2024, 2024
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The southeastern Weddell Sea is important for global ocean circulation due to the cross-shelf-break exchange of Dense Shelf Water and Warm Deep Water, but their exact circulation pathways remain elusive. Using Lagrangian model experiments in an eddy-permitting ocean model, we show how present circulation pathways and transit times of these water masses on the continental shelf are altered by 21st-century climate change, which has implications for local ice-shelf basal melt rates and ecosystems.
Lukrecia Stulic, Ralph Timmermann, Stephan Paul, Rolf Zentek, Günther Heinemann, and Torsten Kanzow
Ocean Sci., 19, 1791–1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1791-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1791-2023, 2023
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In the southern Weddell Sea, the strong sea ice growth in coastal polynyas drives formation of dense shelf water. By using a sea ice–ice shelf–ocean model with representation of the changing icescape based on satellite data, we find that polynya sea ice growth depends on both the regional atmospheric forcing and the icescape. Not just strength but also location of the sea ice growth in polynyas affects properties of the dense shelf water and the basal melting of the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf.
Verena Haid, Ralph Timmermann, Özgür Gürses, and Hartmut H. Hellmer
Ocean Sci., 19, 1529–1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1529-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1529-2023, 2023
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Recently, it was found that cold-to-warm changes in Antarctic shelf sea areas are possible and lead to higher ice shelf melt rates. In modelling experiments, we found that if the highest density in front of the ice shelf becomes lower than the density of the warmer water off-shelf at the deepest access to the shelf, the off-shelf water will flow onto the shelf. Our results also indicate that this change will offer some, although not much, resistance to reversal and constitutes a tipping point.
Christoph Heinze, Thorsten Blenckner, Peter Brown, Friederike Fröb, Anne Morée, Adrian L. New, Cara Nissen, Stefanie Rynders, Isabel Seguro, Yevgeny Aksenov, Yuri Artioli, Timothée Bourgeois, Friedrich Burger, Jonathan Buzan, B. B. Cael, Veli Çağlar Yumruktepe, Melissa Chierici, Christopher Danek, Ulf Dieckmann, Agneta Fransson, Thomas Frölicher, Giovanni Galli, Marion Gehlen, Aridane G. González, Melchor Gonzalez-Davila, Nicolas Gruber, Örjan Gustafsson, Judith Hauck, Mikko Heino, Stephanie Henson, Jenny Hieronymus, I. Emma Huertas, Fatma Jebri, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Jaideep Joshi, Stephen Kelly, Nandini Menon, Precious Mongwe, Laurent Oziel, Sólveig Ólafsdottir, Julien Palmieri, Fiz F. Pérez, Rajamohanan Pillai Ranith, Juliano Ramanantsoa, Tilla Roy, Dagmara Rusiecka, J. Magdalena Santana Casiano, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Miriam Seifert, Anna Shchiptsova, Bablu Sinha, Christopher Somes, Reiner Steinfeldt, Dandan Tao, Jerry Tjiputra, Adam Ulfsbo, Christoph Völker, Tsuyoshi Wakamatsu, and Ying Ye
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
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For assessing the consequences of human-induced climate change for the marine realm, it is necessary to not only look at gradual changes but also at abrupt changes of environmental conditions. We summarise abrupt changes in ocean warming, acidification, and oxygen concentration as the key environmental factors for ecosystems. Taking these abrupt changes into account requires greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced to a larger extent than previously thought to limit respective damage.
Sascha Willmes, Günther Heinemann, and Frank Schnaase
The Cryosphere, 17, 3291–3308, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3291-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3291-2023, 2023
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Sea ice is an important constituent of the global climate system. We here use satellite data to identify regions in the Arctic where the sea ice breaks up in so-called leads (i.e., linear cracks) regularly during winter. This information is important because leads determine, e.g., how much heat is exchanged between the ocean and the atmosphere. We here provide first insights into the reasons for the observed patterns in sea-ice leads and their relation to ocean currents and winds.
Cara Nissen and Meike Vogt
Biogeosciences, 18, 251–283, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-251-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-251-2021, 2021
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Using a regional Southern Ocean ecosystem model, we find that the relative importance of Phaeocystis and diatoms at high latitudes is controlled by iron and temperature variability, with light levels controlling the seasonal succession in coastal areas. Yet, biomass losses via aggregation and grazing matter as well. We show that the seasonal succession of Phaeocystis and diatoms impacts the seasonality of carbon export fluxes with ramifications for nutrient cycling and food web dynamics.
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Short summary
We investigate the structural changes the Antarctic Slope Front in the southern Weddell Sea experiences in a warming climate by conducting two ocean simulations driven by atmospheric data of different horizontal resolutions. Cross-slope currents associated with a regime shift from a cold to a warm Filchner Trough on the continental shelf temporarily disturb the structure of the slope front and reduce its depth, but the primary reason for a regime shift is the cross-slope density gradient.
We investigate the structural changes the Antarctic Slope Front in the southern Weddell Sea...
