Ocean Science
Ocean Science
OS
Articles | Volume 20, issue 1
Articles | Volume 20, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-265-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-265-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 20, issue 1
Research article
 | 
28 Feb 2024
Research article |  | 28 Feb 2024

Predictability of marine heatwaves: assessment based on the ECMWF seasonal forecast system

Eric de Boisséson and Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda

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Cited articles

Amaya, D. J., Miller, A. J., Xie, S. P., and Kosaka, Y.: Physical drivers of the summer 2019 North Pacific marine heatwave, Nat. Commun., 11, 1903, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15820-w, 2020. 
Ardilouze, C., Batté, L., Bunzel, F., Decremer, D., Déqué, M., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Douville, H., Fereday, D., Guemas, V., MacLachlan, C., and Müller, W.: Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictability, Clim. Dynam., 49, 3959–3974, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3555-7, 2017. 
Bai, W., Liu, H., Lin, P., Hu, S., and Wang, F.: Indo-Pacific warm pool present warming attribution and future projection constraint, Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 054026, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5edf, 2022. 
Balmaseda, M. A., Davey, M. K., and Anderson, D. L. T.: Decadal and Seasonal Dependence of ENSO Prediction Skill, J. Climate, 8, 2705–2715, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<2705:DASDOE>2.0.CO;2, 1995. 
Barbeaux, S. J., Holsman, K., and Zador, S.: Marine heatwave stress test of ecosystem-based fisheries management in the Gulf of Alaska Pacific cod fishery, Front. Mar. Sci., 7, 703, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00703, 2020. 
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Short summary
Marine heatwaves are long periods of extremely warm ocean surface temperatures. Predicting such events a few months in advance would help decision-making to mitigate their impacts on marine ecosystems. This work investigates how well operational seasonal forecasts can predict marine heatwaves. Results show that such events can be predicted a few months in advance in the tropics but that extending the predictability skill to other regions will require additional work on the forecast models.
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