Articles | Volume 20, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-265-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-265-2024
Research article
 | 
28 Feb 2024
Research article |  | 28 Feb 2024

Predictability of marine heatwaves: assessment based on the ECMWF seasonal forecast system

Eric de Boisséson and Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda

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Cited articles

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Balmaseda, M. A., Davey, M. K., and Anderson, D. L. T.: Decadal and Seasonal Dependence of ENSO Prediction Skill, J. Climate, 8, 2705–2715, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<2705:DASDOE>2.0.CO;2, 1995. 
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Short summary
Marine heatwaves are long periods of extremely warm ocean surface temperatures. Predicting such events a few months in advance would help decision-making to mitigate their impacts on marine ecosystems. This work investigates how well operational seasonal forecasts can predict marine heatwaves. Results show that such events can be predicted a few months in advance in the tropics but that extending the predictability skill to other regions will require additional work on the forecast models.
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