Articles | Volume 20, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-265-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-265-2024
Research article
 | 
28 Feb 2024
Research article |  | 28 Feb 2024

Predictability of marine heatwaves: assessment based on the ECMWF seasonal forecast system

Eric de Boisséson and Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda

Data sets

ESA SST CCI and C3S reprocessed sea surface temperature analyses E.U. Copernicus Marine Service Information (CMEMS) https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00169

Seasonal forecast daily and subdaily data on single levels Copernicus Climate Change Service https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.181d637e

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Short summary
Marine heatwaves are long periods of extremely warm ocean surface temperatures. Predicting such events a few months in advance would help decision-making to mitigate their impacts on marine ecosystems. This work investigates how well operational seasonal forecasts can predict marine heatwaves. Results show that such events can be predicted a few months in advance in the tropics but that extending the predictability skill to other regions will require additional work on the forecast models.