Articles | Volume 20, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1123-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1123-2024
Research article
 | 
12 Sep 2024
Research article |  | 12 Sep 2024

Exploring variability in climate change projections on the Nemunas River and Curonian Lagoon: coupled SWAT and SHYFEM modeling approach

Natalja Čerkasova, Jovita Mėžinė, Rasa Idzelytė, Jūratė Lesutienė, Ali Ertürk, and Georg Umgiesser

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Ashton, N. K., Jensen, N. R., Ross, T. J., Young, S. P., Hardy, R. S., and Cain, K. D.: Temperature and Maternal Age Effects on Burbot Reproduction, N. Am. J. Fish. Manage., 39, 1192–1206, https://doi.org/10.1002/nafm.10354, 2019. 
Akstinas, V., Jakimavičius, D., Meilutytė-Lukauskienė, D., Kriaučiūnienė, J., and Šarauskienė, D.: Uncertainty of annual runoff projections in Lithuanian rivers under a future climate, Hydrol. Res., 51, 257–271, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2019.004, 2019. 
Bartošová, A., Capell, R., Olesen, J. E., Jabloun, M., Refsgaard, J. C., Donnelly, C., Hyytiäinen, K., Pihlainen, S., Zandersen, M., and Arheimer, B.: Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea, Ambio, 48, 1325–1336, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01243-5, 2019. 
Chen, C., Gan, R., Feng, D., Yang, F., and Zuo, Q.: Quantifying the contribution of SWAT modeling and CMIP6 inputting to streamflow prediction uncertainty under climate change, J. Clean. Prod., 364, 132675, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.132675, 2022. 
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Short summary
This study advances the understanding of climate projection variability in the Nemunas River, Curonian Lagoon, and southeastern Baltic Sea continuum by analyzing a subset of climate models with a focus on a coupled ocean and drainage basin model. This study investigates the variability and trends in environmental parameters, such as water fluxes, timing, nutrient load, water temperature, ice cover, and saltwater intrusions in Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios.
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