Articles | Volume 13, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-315-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-315-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Apr 2017
Research article |
| 21 Apr 2017
Large-scale forcing of the European Slope Current and associated inflows to the North Sea
Robert Marsh
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, European Way, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK
Ivan D. Haigh
Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, European Way, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK
Stuart A. Cunningham
Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Oban, Argyll PA37 1QA, UK
Mark E. Inall
Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Oban, Argyll PA37 1QA, UK
Marie Porter
Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Oban, Argyll PA37 1QA, UK
Ben I. Moat
National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK
Related authors
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3627–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We look at how compound flooding from the combination of river flooding and storm tides (storm surge and astronomical tide) may be changing over time due to climate change, with a case study of the Mekong River delta. We found that future compound flooding has the potential to flood the region more extensively and be longer lasting than compound floods today. This is useful to know because it means managers of deltas such as the Mekong can assess options for improving existing flood defences.
Matthew Clark, Robert Marsh, and James Harle
Ocean Sci., 18, 549–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-549-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-549-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The European Slope Current (SC) is a northward-flowing current running parallel to the UK coastline. It is forced by changes in the density gradient of the wider North Atlantic Ocean. As the North Atlantic has warmed since the late 1990s, these gradients have changed strength and moved, reducing the volume and speed of water feeding into the SC. The SC flows into the North Sea, where changes in the species distribution of some plankton and fish have been seen due to the warming inputs.
Paul R. Halloran, Jennifer K. McWhorter, Beatriz Arellano Nava, Robert Marsh, and William Skirving
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6177–6195, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6177-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6177-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the latest version of a simple model for simulating coastal oceanography in response to changes in weather and climate. The latest revision of this model makes scientific improvements but focuses on improvements that allow the model to be run simply at large scales and for long periods of time to explore the implications of (for example) future climate change along large areas of coastline.
Gandy Maria Rosales Quintana, Robert Marsh, and Luis Alfredo Icochea Salas
Ocean Sci., 17, 1385–1402, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1385-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1385-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) is a key influence on upwelling of nutrient-rich waters associated ecosystems off Peru. To quantify this influence, we backtrack upwelling waters in a computer model of ocean currents, annually, over 1989–2007. The EUC influence varies from year to year, dominating in warm El Niño years, when the EUC extends much closer to the Peruvian coast. In other years, more
localupwelling is associated with coastal winds, coincident with major key population shifts.
Emma L. Worthington, Ben I. Moat, David A. Smeed, Jennifer V. Mecking, Robert Marsh, and Gerard D. McCarthy
Ocean Sci., 17, 285–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-285-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-285-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The RAPID array has observed the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) since 2004, but the AMOC was directly calculated only five times from 1957–2004. Here we create a statistical regression model from RAPID data, relating AMOC changes to density changes within the different water masses at 26° N, and apply it to historical hydrographic data. The resulting 1981–2016 record shows that the AMOC from 2008–2012 was its weakest since the mid-1980s, but it shows no overall decline.
R. Marsh, A. E. Hickman, and J. Sharples
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3163–3178, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3163-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3163-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Our relatively shallow shelf seas are warmed at the surface in spring and summer, while strong tidal currents act to mix away the surface warmth. These competing effects strongly influence the conditions for seasonal growth of the phytoplankton that support marine food webs. We have developed a versatile framework for fast computer modelling of shelf seas, to explore seasonal and year-to-year variations of warming and plankton productivity, tested against observations in different regions.
R. Marsh, V. O. Ivchenko, N. Skliris, S. Alderson, G. R. Bigg, G. Madec, A. T. Blaker, Y. Aksenov, B. Sinha, A. C. Coward, J. Le Sommer, N. Merino, and V. B. Zalesny
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1547–1562, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1547-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1547-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Calved icebergs account for around 50% of total freshwater input to the ocean from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. As they melt, icebergs interact with the ocean. We have developed and tested interactive icebergs in a state-of-the-art global ocean model, showing how sea ice, temperatures, and currents are disturbed by iceberg melting. With this new model capability, we are better prepared to predict how future increases in iceberg numbers might influence the oceans and climate.
Angélique Melet, Roderik van de Wal, Angel Amores, Arne Arns, Alisée A. Chaigneau, Irina Dinu, Ivan D. Haigh, Tim H. J. Hermans, Piero Lionello, Marta Marcos, H. E. Markus Meier, Benoit Meyssignac, Matthew D. Palmer, Ronja Reese, Matthew J. R. Simpson, and Aimée B. A. Slangen
State Planet, 3-slre1, 4, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The EU Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise’s Assessment Report strives to synthesize the current scientific knowledge on sea level rise and its impacts across local, national, and EU scales to support evidence-based policy and decision-making, primarily targeting coastal areas. This paper complements IPCC reports by documenting the state of knowledge of observed and 21st century projected changes in mean and extreme sea levels with more regional information for EU seas as scoped with stakeholders.
Roderik van de Wal, Angélique Melet, Debora Bellafiore, Paula Camus, Christian Ferrarin, Gualbert Oude Essink, Ivan D. Haigh, Piero Lionello, Arjen Luijendijk, Alexandra Toimil, Joanna Staneva, and Michalis Vousdoukas
State Planet, 3-slre1, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sea level rise has major impacts in Europe, which vary from place to place and in time, depending on the source of the impacts. Flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion lead, via different pathways, to various consequences for coastal regions across Europe. This causes damage to assets, the environment, and people for all three categories of impacts discussed in this paper. The paper provides an overview of the various impacts in Europe.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3627–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We look at how compound flooding from the combination of river flooding and storm tides (storm surge and astronomical tide) may be changing over time due to climate change, with a case study of the Mekong River delta. We found that future compound flooding has the potential to flood the region more extensively and be longer lasting than compound floods today. This is useful to know because it means managers of deltas such as the Mekong can assess options for improving existing flood defences.
Jun Yu Puah, Ivan D. Haigh, David Lallemant, Kyle Morgan, Dongju Peng, Masashi Watanabe, and Adam D. Switzer
Ocean Sci., 20, 1229–1246, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1229-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal currents have wide implications for port activities, transport of sediments, and coral reef ecosystems; thus a deeper understanding of their characteristics is needed. We collected data on current velocities for a year using current meters at shallow waters in Singapore. The strength of the currents is primarily affected by tides and winds and generally increases during the monsoon seasons across various frequencies.
Joshua Green, Ivan Haigh, Niall Quinn, Jeff Neal, Thomas Wahl, Melissa Wood, Dirk Eilander, Marleen de Ruiter, Philip Ward, and Paula Camus
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2247, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2247, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Compound flooding, involving the combination or successive occurrence of two or more flood drivers, can amplify flood impacts in coastal/estuarine regions. This paper reviews the practices, trends, methodologies, applications, and findings of coastal compound flooding literature at regional to global scales. We explore the types of compound flood events, their mechanistic processes, and the range of terminology. Lastly, this review highlights knowledge gaps and implications for future practices.
Thomas P. Collings, Niall D. Quinn, Ivan D. Haigh, Joshua Green, Izzy Probyn, Hamish Wilkinson, Sanne Muis, William V. Sweet, and Paul D. Bates
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2403–2423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are at risk of flooding from rising sea levels and extreme weather events. This study applies a new approach to estimating the likelihood of coastal flooding around the world. The method uses data from observations and computer models to create a detailed map of where these coastal floods might occur. The approach can predict flooding in areas for which there are few or no data available. The results can be used to help prepare for and prevent this type of flooding.
Hung Nghia Nguyen, Quan Quan Le, Dung Viet Nguyen, Tan Hong Cao, Toan Quang To, Hai Do Dac, Melissa Wood, and Ivan D. Haigh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-107, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The paper focuses on inundation process in a highest climate vulnerability area of the Mekong Delta, main drivers and future impacts, this is importance alert to decision makers and stakeholder for investment of infrastructure, adaptation approaches and mitigating impacts.
Kristin Burmeister, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Willi Rath, Arne Biastoch, Peter Brandt, Joke F. Lübbecke, and Mark Inall
Ocean Sci., 20, 307–339, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-307-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-307-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We apply two different forcing products to a high-resolution ocean model to investigate their impact on the simulated upper-current field in the tropical Atlantic. Where possible, we compare the simulated results to long-term observations. We find large discrepancies between the two simulations regarding the wind and current fields. We propose that long-term observations, once they have reached a critical length, need to be used to test the quality of wind-driven simulations.
Marilena Oltmanns, N. Penny Holliday, James Screen, Ben I. Moat, Simon A. Josey, D. Gwyn Evans, and Sheldon Bacon
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 109–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-109-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The melting of land ice and sea ice leads to freshwater input into the ocean. Based on observations, we show that stronger freshwater anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic in winter are followed by warmer and drier weather over Europe in summer. The identified link indicates an enhanced predictability of European summer weather at least a winter in advance. It further suggests that warmer and drier summers over Europe can become more frequent under increased freshwater fluxes in the future.
Alexander T. Archibald, Bablu Sinha, Maria Russo, Emily Matthews, Freya Squires, N. Luke Abraham, Stephane Bauguitte, Thomas Bannan, Thomas Bell, David Berry, Lucy Carpenter, Hugh Coe, Andrew Coward, Peter Edwards, Daniel Feltham, Dwayne Heard, Jim Hopkins, James Keeble, Elizabeth C. Kent, Brian King, Isobel R. Lawrence, James Lee, Claire R. Macintosh, Alex Megann, Ben I. Moat, Katie Read, Chris Reed, Malcolm Roberts, Reinhard Schiemann, David Schroeder, Tim Smyth, Loren Temple, Navaneeth Thamban, Lisa Whalley, Simon Williams, Huihui Wu, and Ming-Xi Yang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-405, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-405, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present an overview of the data generated as part of the North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Studies (ACSIS) programme which are available through dedicated repositories at the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA, www.ceda.ac.uk) and the British Oceanographic Data Centre (BODC, bodc.ac.uk). ACSIS data cover the full North Atlantic System comprising: the North Atlantic Ocean, the atmosphere above it including its composition, Arctic Sea Ice and the Greenland Ice Sheet.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Robert J. Nicholls, and Nadia Bloemendaal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2475–2504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We used a novel database of simulated tropical cyclone tracks to explore whether typhoon-induced storm surges present a future flood risk to low-lying coastal communities around the South China Sea. We found that future climate change is likely to change tropical cyclone behaviour to an extent that this increases the severity and frequency of storm surges to Vietnam, southern China, and Thailand. Consequently, coastal flood defences need to be reviewed for resilience against this future hazard.
Ed Hawkins, Philip Brohan, Samantha N. Burgess, Stephen Burt, Gilbert P. Compo, Suzanne L. Gray, Ivan D. Haigh, Hans Hersbach, Kiki Kuijjer, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Chesley McColl, Andrew P. Schurer, Laura Slivinski, and Joanne Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1465–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 and caused significant damage in the UK and Ireland. Using newly digitized weather observations from the time of the storm, combined with a modern weather forecast model, allows us to determine why this storm caused so much damage. We demonstrate that the event is one of the most severe windstorms to affect this region since detailed records began. The approach establishes a new tool to improve assessments of risk from extreme weather.
Sam C. Jones, Neil J. Fraser, Stuart A. Cunningham, Alan D. Fox, and Mark E. Inall
Ocean Sci., 19, 169–192, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-169-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Warm water is transported from the tropical Atlantic towards western Europe and the Arctic. It loses heat to the atmosphere on the way, which strongly influences the climate. We construct a dataset encircling the North Atlantic basin north of 47° N. We calculate how and where heat enters and leaves the basin and how much cooling must happen in the interior. We find that cooling in the north-eastern Atlantic is a crucial step in controlling the conversion of water to higher densities.
Alan D. Fox, Patricia Handmann, Christina Schmidt, Neil Fraser, Siren Rühs, Alejandra Sanchez-Franks, Torge Martin, Marilena Oltmanns, Clare Johnson, Willi Rath, N. Penny Holliday, Arne Biastoch, Stuart A. Cunningham, and Igor Yashayaev
Ocean Sci., 18, 1507–1533, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1507-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1507-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Observations of the eastern subpolar North Atlantic in the 2010s show exceptional freshening and cooling of the upper ocean, peaking in 2016 with the lowest salinities recorded for 120 years. Using results from a high-resolution ocean model, supported by observations, we propose that the leading cause is reduced surface cooling over the preceding decade in the Labrador Sea, leading to increased outflow of less dense water and so to freshening and cooling of the eastern subpolar North Atlantic.
Benjamin R. Loveday, Timothy Smyth, Anıl Akpinar, Tom Hull, Mark E. Inall, Jan Kaiser, Bastien Y. Queste, Matt Tobermann, Charlotte A. J. Williams, and Matthew R. Palmer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 3997–4016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3997-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3997-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using a new approach to combine autonomous underwater glider data and satellite Earth observations, we have generated a 19-month time series of North Sea net primary productivity – the rate at which phytoplankton absorbs carbon dioxide minus that lost through respiration. This time series, which spans 13 gliders, allows for new investigations into small-scale, high-frequency variability in the biogeochemical processes that underpin the carbon cycle and coastal marine ecosystems in shelf seas.
Matthew Clark, Robert Marsh, and James Harle
Ocean Sci., 18, 549–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-549-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-549-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The European Slope Current (SC) is a northward-flowing current running parallel to the UK coastline. It is forced by changes in the density gradient of the wider North Atlantic Ocean. As the North Atlantic has warmed since the late 1990s, these gradients have changed strength and moved, reducing the volume and speed of water feeding into the SC. The SC flows into the North Sea, where changes in the species distribution of some plankton and fish have been seen due to the warming inputs.
Ahmed A. Nasr, Thomas Wahl, Md Mamunur Rashid, Paula Camus, and Ivan D. Haigh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6203–6222, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6203-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6203-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse dependences between different flooding drivers around the USA coastline, where the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern and southwestern coasts are regions of high dependence between flooding drivers. Dependence is higher during the tropical season in the Gulf and at some locations on the East Coast but higher during the extratropical season on the West Coast. The analysis gives new insights on locations, driver combinations, and the time of the year when compound flooding is likely.
Marilena Oltmanns, N. Penny Holliday, James Screen, D. Gwyn Evans, Simon A. Josey, Sheldon Bacon, and Ben I. Moat
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-79, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-79, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
The Arctic is currently warming twice as fast as the global average. This results in enhanced melting and thus freshwater releases into the North Atlantic. Using a combination of observations and models, we show that atmosphere-ocean feedbacks initiated by freshwater releases into the North Atlantic lead to warmer and drier weather over Europe in subsequent summers. The existence of this dynamical link suggests that European summer weather can potentially be predicted months to years in advance.
Julia Rulent, Lucy M. Bricheno, J. A. Mattias Green, Ivan D. Haigh, and Huw Lewis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3339–3351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3339-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3339-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
High coastal total water levels (TWLs) can lead to flooding and hazardous conditions for coastal communities and environment. In this research we are using numerical models to study the interactions between the three main components of the TWL (waves, tides, and surges) on UK and Irish coasts during winter 2013/14. The main finding of this research is that extreme waves and surges can indeed happen together, even at high tide, but they often occurred simultaneously 2–3 h before high tide.
Samuel Tiéfolo Diabaté, Didier Swingedouw, Joël Jean-Marie Hirschi, Aurélie Duchez, Philip J. Leadbitter, Ivan D. Haigh, and Gerard D. McCarthy
Ocean Sci., 17, 1449–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1449-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1449-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio are major currents of the North Atlantic and North Pacific, respectively. They transport warm water northward and are key components of the Earth climate system. For this study, we looked at how they affect the sea level of the coasts of Japan, the USA and Canada. We found that the inshore sea level
co-varies with the north-to-south shifts of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio. In the paper, we discuss the physical mechanisms that could explain the agreement.
Paul R. Halloran, Jennifer K. McWhorter, Beatriz Arellano Nava, Robert Marsh, and William Skirving
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6177–6195, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6177-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6177-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the latest version of a simple model for simulating coastal oceanography in response to changes in weather and climate. The latest revision of this model makes scientific improvements but focuses on improvements that allow the model to be run simply at large scales and for long periods of time to explore the implications of (for example) future climate change along large areas of coastline.
Gandy Maria Rosales Quintana, Robert Marsh, and Luis Alfredo Icochea Salas
Ocean Sci., 17, 1385–1402, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1385-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1385-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) is a key influence on upwelling of nutrient-rich waters associated ecosystems off Peru. To quantify this influence, we backtrack upwelling waters in a computer model of ocean currents, annually, over 1989–2007. The EUC influence varies from year to year, dominating in warm El Niño years, when the EUC extends much closer to the Peruvian coast. In other years, more
localupwelling is associated with coastal winds, coincident with major key population shifts.
Tillys Petit, M. Susan Lozier, Simon A. Josey, and Stuart A. Cunningham
Ocean Sci., 17, 1353–1365, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1353-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1353-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Recent work has highlighted the dominant role of the Irminger and Iceland basins in the production of North Atlantic Deep Water. From our analysis, we find that air–sea fluxes and the ocean surface density field are both key determinants of the buoyancy-driven transformation in the Iceland Basin. However, the spatial distribution of the subpolar mode water (SPMW) transformation is most sensitive to surface density changes as opposed to the direct influence of the air–sea fluxes.
Alejandra Sanchez-Franks, Eleanor Frajka-Williams, Ben I. Moat, and David A. Smeed
Ocean Sci., 17, 1321–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1321-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1321-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In the North Atlantic, ocean currents carry warm surface waters northward and return cooler deep waters southward. This type of ocean circulation, known as overturning, is important for the Earth’s climate. This overturning has been measured using a mooring array at 26° N in the North Atlantic since 2004. Here we use these mooring data and global satellite data to produce a new method for monitoring the overturning over longer timescales, which could potentially be applied to different latitudes.
Georg Umgiesser, Marco Bajo, Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Cucco, Piero Lionello, Davide Zanchettin, Alvise Papa, Alessandro Tosoni, Maurizio Ferla, Elisa Coraci, Sara Morucci, Franco Crosato, Andrea Bonometto, Andrea Valentini, Mirko Orlić, Ivan D. Haigh, Jacob Woge Nielsen, Xavier Bertin, André Bustorff Fortunato, Begoña Pérez Gómez, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Denis Paradis, Didier Jourdan, Audrey Pasquet, Baptiste Mourre, Joaquín Tintoré, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2679–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The city of Venice relies crucially on a good storm surge forecast to protect its population and cultural heritage. In this paper, we provide a state-of-the-art review of storm surge forecasting, starting from examples in Europe and focusing on the Adriatic Sea and the Lagoon of Venice. We discuss the physics of storm surge, as well as the particular aspects of Venice and new techniques in storm surge modeling. We also give recommendations on what a future forecasting system should look like.
Paula Camus, Ivan D. Haigh, Ahmed A. Nasr, Thomas Wahl, Stephen E. Darby, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2021–2040, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In coastal regions, floods can arise through concurrent drivers, such as precipitation, river discharge, storm surge, and waves, which exacerbate the impact. In this study, we identify hotspots of compound flooding along the southern coast of the North Atlantic Ocean and the northern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. This regional assessment can be considered a screening tool for coastal management that provides information about which areas are more predisposed to experience compound flooding.
Yasser Hamdi, Ivan D. Haigh, Sylvie Parey, and Thomas Wahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1461–1465, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1461-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1461-2021, 2021
Emma L. Worthington, Ben I. Moat, David A. Smeed, Jennifer V. Mecking, Robert Marsh, and Gerard D. McCarthy
Ocean Sci., 17, 285–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-285-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-285-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The RAPID array has observed the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) since 2004, but the AMOC was directly calculated only five times from 1957–2004. Here we create a statistical regression model from RAPID data, relating AMOC changes to density changes within the different water masses at 26° N, and apply it to historical hydrographic data. The resulting 1981–2016 record shows that the AMOC from 2008–2012 was its weakest since the mid-1980s, but it shows no overall decline.
Ben I. Moat, David A. Smeed, Eleanor Frajka-Williams, Damien G. Desbruyères, Claudie Beaulieu, William E. Johns, Darren Rayner, Alejandra Sanchez-Franks, Molly O. Baringer, Denis Volkov, Laura C. Jackson, and Harry L. Bryden
Ocean Sci., 16, 863–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-863-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-863-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The RAPID 26° N array has been measuring the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) since 2004. Since 2009 the AMOC has, compared with previous years, been in a low state. In 2013–2015, in the northern North Atlantic, strong cooling was observed in the ocean and anticipated to intensify the strength of the AMOC some years later. Here, we analyse the latest results from 26° N and conclude that while the AMOC has increased since 2009, this increase is not statistically significant.
Sam Jones, Mark Inall, Marie Porter, Jennifer A. Graham, and Finlo Cottier
Ocean Sci., 16, 389–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-389-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-389-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The ocean is an important source of nutrients and organisms to coastal waters, but it is not clear what controls current flow between the deep ocean and the coast. We contrasted ocean flow pathways and coastal water properties between summer 2013 and a series of intense storms in December 2013. Further, we assessed the likelihood of storms occurring over the North Atlantic during each winter. We found that local weather patterns exert a strong influence on coastal water properties and origins.
Scott A. Stephens, Robert G. Bell, and Ivan D. Haigh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 783–796, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-783-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-783-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme sea levels in New Zealand occur in nearby places and at similar times, which means that flooding impacts and losses may be linked in space and time. The most extreme sea levels depend on storms coinciding with very high tides because storm surges are relatively small in New Zealand. The type of storm weather system influences where the extreme sea levels occur, and the annual timing is influenced by the low-amplitude (~10 cm) annual sea-level cycle.
Anaïs Couasnon, Dirk Eilander, Sanne Muis, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, Ivan D. Haigh, Thomas Wahl, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 489–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-489-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-489-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
When a high river discharge coincides with a high storm surge level, this can exarcebate flood level, depth, and duration, resulting in a so-called compound flood event. These events are not currently included in global flood models. In this research, we analyse the timing and correlation between modelled discharge and storm surge level time series in deltas and estuaries. Our results provide a first indication of regions along the global coastline with a high compound flooding potential.
Yang Liu, Jisk Attema, Ben Moat, and Wilco Hazeleger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 77–96, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-77-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-77-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Poleward meridional energy transport (MET) has significant impact on the climate in the Arctic. In this study, we quantify and intercompare MET at subpolar latitudes from six reanalysis data sets. The results indicate that the spatial distribution and temporal variations of MET differ substantially among the reanalysis data sets. Our study suggests that the MET estimated from reanalyses is useful for the evaluation of energy transports but should be used with great care.
Alistair Hendry, Ivan D. Haigh, Robert J. Nicholls, Hugo Winter, Robert Neal, Thomas Wahl, Amélie Joly-Laugel, and Stephen E. Darby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3117–3139, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3117-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3117-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding can arise from multiple sources, including waves, extreme sea levels, rivers, and severe rainfall. When two or more sources combine, the consequences can be greatly multiplied. We find the potential for the joint occurrence of extreme sea levels and river discharge to be greater on the western coast of the UK compared to the eastern coast. This is due to the weather conditions generating each flood source around the UK. These results will help increase our flood forecasting ability.
Svein Østerhus, Rebecca Woodgate, Héðinn Valdimarsson, Bill Turrell, Laura de Steur, Detlef Quadfasel, Steffen M. Olsen, Martin Moritz, Craig M. Lee, Karin Margretha H. Larsen, Steingrímur Jónsson, Clare Johnson, Kerstin Jochumsen, Bogi Hansen, Beth Curry, Stuart Cunningham, and Barbara Berx
Ocean Sci., 15, 379–399, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-379-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-379-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Two decades of observations of the Arctic Mediterranean (AM) exchanges show that the exchanges have been stable in terms of volume transport during a period when many other components of the global climate system have changed. The total AM import is found to be 9.1 Sv and has a seasonal variation in amplitude close to 1 Sv, and maximum import in October. Roughly one-third of the imported water leaves the AM as surface outflow.
E. Frajka-Williams, C. S. Meinen, W. E. Johns, D. A. Smeed, A. Duchez, A. J. Lawrence, D. A. Cuthbertson, G. D. McCarthy, H. L. Bryden, M. O. Baringer, B. I. Moat, and D. Rayner
Ocean Sci., 12, 481–493, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-481-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-481-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is predicted by climate models to slow down in this century, resulting in reduced transport of heat northward to mid-latitudes. At 26° N, the Atlantic MOC has been measured continuously for the past decade (2004–2014). In this paper, we discuss the 10-year record of variability, identify the origins of the continued weakening of the circulation, and discuss high-frequency (subannual) compensation between transport components.
P. Achtert, I. M. Brooks, B. J. Brooks, B. I. Moat, J. Prytherch, P. O. G. Persson, and M. Tjernström
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 4993–5007, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-4993-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-4993-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Doppler lidar wind measurements were obtained during a 3-month Arctic cruise in summer 2014. Ship-motion effects were compensated by combining a commercial Doppler lidar with a custom-made motion-stabilisation platform. This enables the retrieval of wind profiles in the Arctic boundary layer with uncertainties comparable to land-based lidar measurements and standard radiosondes. The presented set-up has the potential to facilitate continuous ship-based wind profile measurements over the oceans.
R. Marsh, A. E. Hickman, and J. Sharples
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3163–3178, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3163-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3163-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Our relatively shallow shelf seas are warmed at the surface in spring and summer, while strong tidal currents act to mix away the surface warmth. These competing effects strongly influence the conditions for seasonal growth of the phytoplankton that support marine food webs. We have developed a versatile framework for fast computer modelling of shelf seas, to explore seasonal and year-to-year variations of warming and plankton productivity, tested against observations in different regions.
M. P. Wadey, J. M. Brown, I. D. Haigh, T. Dolphin, and P. Wisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2209–2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2209-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2209-2015, 2015
J. Prytherch, M. J. Yelland, I. M. Brooks, D. J. Tupman, R. W. Pascal, B. I. Moat, and S. J. Norris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10619–10629, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10619-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10619-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Signals at scales associated with wave and platform motion are often apparent in ship-based turbulent flux measurements, but it has been uncertain whether this is due to measurement error or to wind-wave interactions. We show that the signal has a dependence on horizontal ship velocity and that removing the signal reduces the dependence of the momentum flux on the orientation of the ship to the wind. We conclude that the signal is a bias due to time-varying motion-dependent flow distortion.
R. Marsh, V. O. Ivchenko, N. Skliris, S. Alderson, G. R. Bigg, G. Madec, A. T. Blaker, Y. Aksenov, B. Sinha, A. C. Coward, J. Le Sommer, N. Merino, and V. B. Zalesny
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1547–1562, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1547-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1547-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Calved icebergs account for around 50% of total freshwater input to the ocean from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. As they melt, icebergs interact with the ocean. We have developed and tested interactive icebergs in a state-of-the-art global ocean model, showing how sea ice, temperatures, and currents are disturbed by iceberg melting. With this new model capability, we are better prepared to predict how future increases in iceberg numbers might influence the oceans and climate.
T. J. Sherwin, D. Aleynik, E. Dumont, and M. E. Inall
Ocean Sci., 11, 343–359, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-343-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-343-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The Rockall Trough feeds warm salty water to Polar regions and the European Shelf. Detailed observations from an underwater glider show that a) the meandering surface current field in the central trough is driven by deep eddies; b) chance circulations deflect the eastern slope current and warm the western side; c) and altimeter observations omit the mean flow in the narrow slope current. There are wider implications for satellite altimeter observations, ocean monitoring and ocean model results.
M. P. Wadey, I. D. Haigh, and J. M. Brown
Ocean Sci., 10, 1031–1045, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-1031-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-1031-2014, 2014
D. A. Smeed, G. D. McCarthy, S. A. Cunningham, E. Frajka-Williams, D. Rayner, W. E. Johns, C. S. Meinen, M. O. Baringer, B. I. Moat, A. Duchez, and H. L. Bryden
Ocean Sci., 10, 29–38, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-29-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-29-2014, 2014
S. J. Norris, I. M. Brooks, B. I. Moat, M. J. Yelland, G. de Leeuw, R. W. Pascal, and B. Brooks
Ocean Sci., 9, 133–145, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-133-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-133-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Approach: Numerical Models | Depth range: Shelf-sea depth | Geographical range: Shelf Seas | Phenomena: Current Field
Circulation of the European northwest shelf: a Lagrangian perspective
Dynamical connections between large marine ecosystems of austral South America based on numerical simulations
Numerical issues of the Total Exchange Flow (TEF) analysis framework for quantifying estuarine circulation
Different approaches to model the nearshore circulation in the south shore of O'ahu, Hawaii
Residual circulation and freshwater transport in the Dutch Wadden Sea: a numerical modelling study
Simulated melt rates for the Totten and Dalton ice shelves
Effect of tidal stream power generation on the region-wide circulation in a shallow sea
Marcel Ricker and Emil V. Stanev
Ocean Sci., 16, 637–655, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-637-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-637-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The dynamics of the European northwest shelf are analysed using both classical Eulerian and Lagrangian data from simulated particles. Focussing on the latter, a quantity named
normalised cumulative particle densitymeasures particle accumulation. Yearly averages reveal no surface accumulation areas in the deep ocean and elongated patterns on the shelf mainly along fronts. Sensitivity experiments show the influence of tides and wind, unveiling important vertical dynamics in coastal areas.
Karen Guihou, Alberto R. Piola, Elbio D. Palma, and Maria Paz Chidichimo
Ocean Sci., 16, 271–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-271-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-271-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The exchange between the Humboldt and Patagonian large marine ecosystems, the largest marine ecosystems in the Southern Hemisphere, is investigated with numerical simulations. Most of the southern Patagonian Shelf waters originate from the South Pacific's upper layer. The exchange takes place mainly through the shelf break via the Cape Horn shelf. The interannual variability of shelf exchange is partly explained by the large-scale wind variability and associated with the Southern Annular Mode.
Marvin Lorenz, Knut Klingbeil, Parker MacCready, and Hans Burchard
Ocean Sci., 15, 601–614, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-601-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-601-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Estuaries are areas where riverine and oceanic waters meet and mix. The exchange flow of an estuary describes the water properties of the inflowing and outflowing water. These can be described by simple bulk values for volume fluxes and salinities. This work focuses on the numerics of one computational method for these values, the Total Exchange Flow. We show that only the so-called dividing salinity method is able to reliably calculate the correct values, even for complex situations.
Joao Marcos Azevedo Correia de Souza and Brian Powell
Ocean Sci., 13, 31–46, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-31-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-31-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The relevance of including the wave effect into a nearshore circulation model is discussed. Two different approaches are tested in the framework of an operational forecast system. It is shown that the waves are essential to represent the circulation patterns near the coast. While it seams to be ideal to consider the full coupling between surface waves and ocean currents, a computationally cheaper alternative is tested and shown to give equivalent qualitative results.
M. Duran-Matute, T. Gerkema, G. J. de Boer, J. J. Nauw, and U. Gräwe
Ocean Sci., 10, 611–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-611-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-611-2014, 2014
D. E. Gwyther, B. K. Galton-Fenzi, J. R. Hunter, and J. L. Roberts
Ocean Sci., 10, 267–279, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-267-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-267-2014, 2014
G. I. Shapiro
Ocean Sci., 7, 165–174, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-7-165-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-7-165-2011, 2011
Cited articles
Amante, C. and Eakins, B. W.: ETOPO1 1 arc-minute global relief model: procedures, data sources and analysis, US Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, National Geophysical Data Center, Marine Geology and Geophysics Division, Colorado, 2009.
AVISO+: SSALTO/DUACS User Handbook: MSLA and (M)ADT Near-Real Time and Delayed Time Products, SALP-MU-P-EA-21065-CLS, CLS-DPS-NT-06-034 (5rev0, 20/08/2016), available at: http://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/fileadmin/documents/data/tools/hdbk_duacs.pdf (last access: 10 April 2017), 2016.
Balmaseda, M. A., Smith, G. C., Haines, K., Anderson, D., Palmer, T. N., and Vitard, A.: Historical reconstruction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation from the ECMWF operational ocean reanalysis, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L23615, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031645, 2007.
Beaugrand, G.: The North Sea regime shift: evidence, causes, mechanisms and consequences, Progr. Oceanogr., 60, 245–262, 2004.
Berx, B., Hansen, B., Østerhus, S., Larsen, K. M., Sherwin, T., and Jochumsen, K.: Combining in situ measurements and altimetry to estimate volume, heat and salt transport variability through the Faroe-Shetland Channel, Ocean Sci., 9, 639–654, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-639-2013, 2013.
Blaker, A. T., Hirschi, J. J.-M., McCarthy, G., Sinha, B., Taws, S., Marsh, R., de Cuevas, B. A., Alderson, S. G., and Coward, A. C.: Historical analogues of the recent extreme minima observed in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26° N, Clim. Dynam., 44, 457–473, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2274-6, 2015.
Blanke, B. and Raynaud, S.: Kinematics of the Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent: a Eulerian and Lagrangian approach from GCM results, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 27, 1038–1053, 1997 (data available at: http://stockage.univ-brest.fr/~grima/Ariane/doc.html).
Brodeau, L., Barnier, B., Treguier, A.-M., Penduff, T., and Gulev, S.: An ERA40-based atmospheric forcing for global ocean circulation models, Ocean Model., 31, 88–104, 2010.
Burrows, M. and Thorpe, S. A.: Drifter observations of the Hebrides slope current and nearby circulation patterns, Ann. Geophys., 17, 280–302, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00585-999-0280-5, 1999.
Burrows, M., Thorpe, S. A., and Meldrum, D. T.: Dispersion over the Hebridean and Shetland shelves and slopesm Cont. Shelf Res., 19, 49–55, 1999.
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011 (data available at: http://www.ecmwf.int/en/research/climate-reanalysis/era-interim).
Dooley, H. D.: Hypothesis concerning the circulation of the North Sea, Journal du Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer, 36, 64–61, 1974.
Duchez, A., Frajka-Williams, E., Josey, S. A., Evans, D., Grist, J. P., Marsh, R., McCarthy, G. D., Sinha, B., Berry, D. I., and Hirschi, J. J.-M.: Drivers of exceptionally cold North Atlantic Ocean temperatures and their link to the 2015 European heat wave, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 074004, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074004, 2016.
GODAS (NCEP Global Ocean Data Assimilation System): Salinity Data, available at: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.godas.html, last access 3 February 2017.
Good, S. A., Martin, M. J., and Rayner, N. A.: EN4: quality controlled ocean temperature and salinity profiles and monthly objective analyses with uncertainty estimates, J. Geophys. Res., 118, 6704–6716, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JC009067, 2013 (data available at: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/en4/).
Grist, J. P., Marsh, R., and Josey, S. A.: On the relationship between the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the surface-forced overturning stream function, J. Climate, 22, 4989–5002, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2574.1, 2009.
Grist, J. P., Josey, S. A., Jacobs, Z. L., Marsh, R., Sinha, B., and van Sebille, E.: Extreme air-sea interaction over the North Atlantic subpolar gyre during the winter of 2013-14 and its sub-surface legacy, Clim. Dynam., 46, 4027–4045, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2819-3, 2015.
Hecht, M. W. and Smith, R. D.: Toward a Physical Understanding of the North Atlantic: A Review of Model Studies in an Eddying Regime, Geophysical Monograph Series, Am. Geophys. Un., 177, 213–239, 2013.
Hjøllo, S. S., Skogen, M. D., and Svendsen, E.: Exploring currents and heat within the North Sea using a numerical model, J. Mar. Syst., 78, 180–192, 2009.
Holgate, S. J., Matthews, A., Woodworth, P. L., Rickards, K. J., Tamisiea, M. E., Bradshaw, E., Foden, P. R., Gordon, K., Jevrejeva, S., and Pugh, J.: New data systems and products at the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, J. Coast. Res., 29, 493–504, 2013.
Holliday, N. P., Hughes, S. L., Bacon, S., Beszczynska-Möller, A., Hansen, B., Lavín, A., Loeng, H., Mork, K. A., Østerhus, S., Sherwin, T., and Walczowski, W.: Reversal of the 1960s to 1990s Freshening Trend in the Northeast North Atlantic and Nordic Seas, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L03614, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032675, 2008.
Huthnance, J. M.: Slope Currents and “JEBAR”, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 14, 795–810, 1984.
Huthnance, J. M., Holt, J. T., and Wakelin, S. L.: Deep ocean exchange with west-European shelf seas, Ocean Sci., 5, 621–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-5-621-2009, 2009.
Inall, M. E., Gillibrand, P. A., Griffiths, C. R., MacDougal, N., and Blackwell, K.: On the oceanographic variability of the North-West European Shelf to the West of Scotland, J. Mar. Syst., 77, 210–226, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2007.12.012, 2009.
Johnson, C., Inall, M., and Häkkinen, S.: Declining nutrient concentrations in the northeast Atlantic as a result of a weakening Subpolar gyre, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. I, 82, 95–107, 2013.
Josey, S. A., Grist, J. P., and Marsh, R.: Estimates of meridional overturning circulation variability in the North Atlantic from surface density flux fields, J. Geophys. Res., 114, C09022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JC005230, 2009.
Large, W. and Pond, S.: Open ocean momentum flux measurements in moderate to strong winds, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 11, 324–336, 1981.
Larsen, K. M. H., Gonzalez-Pola, C., Fratantoni, P., Beszczynska-Möller, A., and Hughes, S. L. (Eds.): ICES Report on Ocean Climate 2015, ICES Cooperative Research Report No. 331, 79 pp., Data sets: Salinity time series for Faroe Shetland Channel – Shetland Shelf (North Atlantic Water) and Fair Isle Current Water (Waters entering North Sea from Atlantic), Data Provider – Marine Scotland Science, Aberdeen, UK, Modelled North Sea Inflow, Data Provider – Institute of Marine Research, Norway, available at: http://ocean.ices.dk/iroc/, last access: 5 December 2016.
MacKenzie, B. R. and Schiedek, D.: Daily ocean monitoring since the 1860s shows record warming of northern European seas, Global Change Biol., 13, 1335–1347, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01360.x, 2007.
Madec, G.: NEMO ocean engine, in: Vol. 27, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, France, 2008.
McClean, J. L., Poulain, P.-M., Pelton, J. W., and Maltrud, M. E.: Eulerian and Lagrangian statistics from surface drifters and a high-resolution POP simulation in the North Atlantic, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 32, 2472–2491, 2002.
McKenna, C., Berx, B., and Austin, W. E. N.: The decomposition of the Faroe-Shetland Channel water masses using Parametric Optimum Multi-Parameter analysis, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. I, 107, 9–21, 2016.
Moat, B. I., Josey, S. A., Sinha, B., Blaker, A. T., Smeed, D. A., McCarthy, G., Johns, W. E., Hirschi, J.-M., Frajka-Williams, E., Rayner, D., Duchez, A., and Coward, A. C.: Major variations in subtropical North Atlantic heat transport at short (5 day) timescales and their causes, J. Geophys. Res., 121, 3237–3249, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC011660, 2016.
Petersen, M. R., Williams, S. J., Maltrud, M. E., Hecht, M. W., and Hamann, B.: A three-dimensional eddy census of a high-resolution global ocean simulation, J. Geophys. Res., 118, 1759–1774, 2013.
PSMSL (Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level): Tide Gauge Data, available at: http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/, last access: 22 January 2017.
Reid, P. C., Holliday, N. P., and Smyth, T. J.: Pulses in eastern margin current with higher temperatures and North Sea ecosystem changes, Mar. Ecol.-Prog. Ser., 215, 283–287, 2001.
Reid, P. C., Edwards, M., Beaugrand, G., Skogen, M., and Stevens, D.: Periodic changes in the zooplankton of the North Sea during the twentieth century linked to oceanic inflow, Fish. Oceanogr., 12, 260–269, 2003.
Richter, K., Segtnan, O. H., and Furevik, T.: Variability of the Atlantic inflow to the Nordic Seas and its causes inferred from observations of sea surface height, J. Geophys. Res., 117, C04004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007719, 2012.
Rio, M. H., Guinehut, S., and Larnicol, G.: New CNES-CLS09 global mean dynamic topography computed from the combination of GRACE data, altimetry, and in situ measurements, J. Geophys. Res., 116, C07018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JC006505, 2011.
Robson, J., Sutton, R., Lohmann, K., Smith, D., and Palmer, M. D.: Causes of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the mid 1990s, J. Climate, 25, 4116–4134, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00443.1, 2012.
Sharples, J., Ross, O. N., Scott, B. E., Greenstreet, S., and Fraser, H.: Interannual variability in the timing of stratification and the spring bloom in the north-western North Sea, Cont. Shelf Res., 26, 733–751, 2006.
Sherwin, T. J., Hughes, S. L., Turrell, W. R., Hansen, B., and Østerhus, S.: Wind-driven monthly variations in transport and the flow field in the Faroe–Shetland Channel, Polar Res., 27, 7–22, 2008.
Simpson, J. H. and Sharples, J.: Introduction to the Physical and Biological Oceanography of Shelf Seas, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2012.
Souza, A. J., Simpson, J. H., Harikrishnan, M., and Malarkey, J.: Flow structure and seasonality in the Hebridean slope current, Oceanol. Acta, 24, S63–S76, 2001.
Sündermann, J. and Pohlmann, T.: A brief analysis of North Sea physics, Oceanologia, 53, 663–689, https://doi.org/10.5697/oc.53-3.663, 2011.
Winther, N. G. and Johannessen, J. A.: North Sea circulation: Atlantic inflow and its destination, J. Geophys. Res., 111, C12018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JC003310, 2006.
Xu, W., Miller, P. I., Quartly, G. D., and Pingree, R. D.: Seasonality and interannual variability of the European Slope Current from 20 years of altimeter data with in situ measurement comparisons, Remote Sens. Environ., 162, 196–207, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2015.02.008, 2015.
Short summary
To the west of Britain and Ireland, a strong ocean current follows the steep slope that separates the deep Atlantic and the continental shelf. This “Slope Current” exerts an Atlantic influence on the North Sea and its ecosystems. Using a combination of computer modelling and archived data, we find that the Slope Current weakened over 1988–2007, reducing Atlantic influence on the North Sea, due to a combination of warming of the subpolar North Atlantic and weakening winds to the west of Scotland.
To the west of Britain and Ireland, a strong ocean current follows the steep slope that...
