Articles | Volume 22, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-3693-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-3693-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Nov 2026
Research article |
| 13 Nov 2026
| 13 Nov 2026
Multi-year predictability of hydrography and circulation on the U.S. Northeast Shelf: a dynamical downscaling perspective
Department of Geography, Geology and the Environment, Illinois State University, Normal, IL, USA
Alma Carolina Castillo-Trujillo
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA
atDepth Inc., Boston, MA, USA
Ke Chen
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA
Young-Oh Kwon
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA
Sydney Perkins
Department of Physics, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA
Hyodae Seo
Department of Oceanography, University of Hawai'i, Honolulu, HI, USA
Paula Fratantoni
Northeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA NMFS, Woods Hole, MA, USA
Michael Alexander
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
Vincent Saba
NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
Related authors
Adam V. Subhas, Jennie E. Rheuban, Zhaohui Aleck Wang, Daniel C. McCorkle, Anna P. M. Michel, Lukas Marx, Chloe L. Dean, Kate Morkeski, Matthew G. Hayden, Mary Burkitt-Gray, Francis Elder, Yiming Guo, Heather H. Kim, and Ke Chen
Biogeosciences, 22, 5511–5534, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5511-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5511-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) is a carbon removal approach in which alkaline materials are added to the marine environment, increasing the ocean's ability to store carbon dioxide. We conducted an open-water experiment releasing and tracking a fluorescent water tracer. Under the right conditions, in-water monitoring of OAE does appear to be possible. We conclude with a series of practical recommendations for open-water OAE monitoring.
Michael Jacox, Dmitry Dukhovskoy, Jessie Liu, Michael Alexander, Elizabeth Drenkard, Andrew Ross, Natalie Freeman, Dillon Amaya, Steven Bograd, Allison Cluett, Nicole Lovenduski, Samuel Mogen, Mercedes Pozo Buil, Charles Stock, Wei Cheng, Albert Hermann, Liwei Jia, Nathaniel Johnson, Kelly Kearney, Colleen McHugh, and Darren Pilcher
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5844, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5844, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Ocean Science (OS).
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new system to predict conditions in the Northeast Pacific Ocean up to one year in advance. By comparing past forecasts with ocean measurements, we show that we can accurately predict temperature and oxygen levels several months in advance. These predictions will soon be available to the public, enabling coastal communities, managers, and industries to make better proactive decisions.
Ha-Rim Kim, Changhyun Yoo, Hyodae Seo, and Baek-Min Kim
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3431, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3431, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Winter precipitation is changing across the Northern Hemisphere, but the role of atmospheric circulation is hard to understand. This study simplifies complex circulation patterns into a few key modes and links them to precipitation trends. The results show that these modes explain much of the north–south pattern of past precipitation change and help reveal why climate models differ. This approach offers a clearer way to evaluate future winter precipitation changes.
Adam V. Subhas, Jennie E. Rheuban, Zhaohui Aleck Wang, Daniel C. McCorkle, Anna P. M. Michel, Lukas Marx, Chloe L. Dean, Kate Morkeski, Matthew G. Hayden, Mary Burkitt-Gray, Francis Elder, Yiming Guo, Heather H. Kim, and Ke Chen
Biogeosciences, 22, 5511–5534, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5511-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5511-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) is a carbon removal approach in which alkaline materials are added to the marine environment, increasing the ocean's ability to store carbon dioxide. We conducted an open-water experiment releasing and tracking a fluorescent water tracer. Under the right conditions, in-water monitoring of OAE does appear to be possible. We conclude with a series of practical recommendations for open-water OAE monitoring.
Andrew C. Ross, Charles A. Stock, Alistair Adcroft, Enrique Curchitser, Robert Hallberg, Matthew J. Harrison, Katherine Hedstrom, Niki Zadeh, Michael Alexander, Wenhao Chen, Elizabeth J. Drenkard, Hubert du Pontavice, Raphael Dussin, Fabian Gomez, Jasmin G. John, Dujuan Kang, Diane Lavoie, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Vincent Saba, Sang-Ik Shin, Samantha Siedlecki, and James Simkins
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6943–6985, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6943-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate a model for northwest Atlantic Ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry that balances high resolution with computational economy by building on the new regional features in the MOM6 ocean model and COBALT biogeochemical model. We test the model's ability to simulate impactful historical variability and find that the model simulates the mean state and variability of most features well, which suggests the model can provide information to inform living-marine-resource applications.
Guillaume Gastineau, Claude Frankignoul, Yongqi Gao, Yu-Chiao Liang, Young-Oh Kwon, Annalisa Cherchi, Rohit Ghosh, Elisa Manzini, Daniela Matei, Jennifer Mecking, Lingling Suo, Tian Tian, Shuting Yang, and Ying Zhang
The Cryosphere, 17, 2157–2184, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Snow cover variability is important for many human activities. This study aims to understand the main drivers of snow cover in observations and models in order to better understand it and guide the improvement of climate models and forecasting systems. Analyses reveal a dominant role for sea surface temperature in the Pacific. Winter snow cover is also found to have important two-way interactions with the troposphere and stratosphere. No robust influence of the sea ice concentration is found.
Cited articles
Athanasiadis, P. J., Yeager, S., Kwon, Y.-O., Bellucci, A., Smith, D. W., and Tibaldi, S.: Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 3, 20, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0120-6, 2020. a, b
Batteen, M. L. and Miller, H. A.: Process-oriented modeling studies of the 5500-km-long boundary flow off western and southern Australia, Cont. Shelf Res., 29, 702–718, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2008.11.011, 2009. a, b
Bigelow, H. B.: Studies of the waters on the continental shelf, Cape Cod to Chesapeake Bay. I: The cycle of temperature, Pap. Phys. Oceanogr. Meteorol., 2, 135 pp., https://doi.org/10.1575/1912/1144, 1933. a
Böhm, E., Hopkins, T., Pietrafesa, L., and Churchill, J.: Continental slope sea level and flow variability induced by lateral movements of the Gulf Stream in the Middle Atlantic Bight, Prog. Oceanogr., 70, 196–212, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2006.07.005, 2006. a
Castillo-Trujillo, A. C., Kwon, Y.-O., Fratantoni, P., Chen, K., Seo, H., Alexander, M. A., and Saba, V. S.: An evaluation of eight global ocean reanalyses for the Northeast US Continental shelf, Prog. Oceanogr., 219, 103126, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2023.103126, 2023. a, b
Chapman, D. C.: Numerical treatment of cross-shelf open boundaries in a barotropic coastal ocean model, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 15, 1060–1075, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1985)015<1060:NTOCSO>2.0.CO;2, 1985. a
Chapman, D. C. and Beardsley, R. C.: On the origin of shelf water in the Middle Atlantic Bight, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 19, 384–391, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1989)019<0384:OTOOSW>2.0.CO;2, 1989. a
Chassignet, E. and Marshall, D.: Gulf Stream separation in numerical ocean models, Geoph. Monog. Series, 177, https://doi.org/10.1029/177GM05, 2008. a
Chassignet, E. P. and Xu, X.: Impact of horizontal resolution (
Chen, K. and He, R.: Mean circulation in the coastal ocean off northeastern North America from a regional-scale ocean model, Ocean Sci., 11, 503–517, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-503-2015, 2015. a
Chen, K., Gawarkiewicz, G. G., Lentz, S. J., and Bane, J. M.: Diagnosing the warming of the Northeastern US Coastal Ocean in 2012: A linkage between the atmospheric jet stream variability and ocean response, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 119, 218–227, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JC009393, 2014a. a
Chen, K., He, R., Powell, B. S., Gawarkiewicz, G. G., Moore, A. M., and Arango, H. G.: Data assimilative modeling investigation of Gulf Stream Warm Core Ring interaction with continental shelf and slope circulation, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 119, 5968–5991, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC009898, 2014b. a
Chen, K., Gawarkiewicz, G., and Yang, J.: Mesoscale and submesoscale shelf-ocean exchanges initialize an advective marine heatwave, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 127, e2021JC017927, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017927, 2022. a
Chen, Z., Kwon, Y.-O., Chen, K., Fratantoni, P., Gawarkiewicz, G., and Joyce, T.: Long-term SST variability on the Northwest Atlantic continental shelf and slope, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL085455, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085455, 2020. a, b
Christensen, H. M., Berner, J., and Yeager, S.: The value of initialization on decadal timescales: state-dependent predictability in the CESM decadal prediction large ensemble, J. Climate, 33, 7353–7370, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0571.1, 2020. a
Claret, M., Galbraith, E. D., Palter, J. B., Bianchi, D., Fennel, K., Gilbert, D., and Dunne, J. P.: Rapid coastal deoxygenation due to ocean circulation shift in the northwest Atlantic, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 868–872, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0263-1, 2018. a
CMEMS: Global Ocean Physics Reanalysis, E.U. Copernicus Marine Service Information (CMEMS), Marine Data Store (MDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00021, 2026a. a
CMEMS: Global Ocean Gridded L4 Sea Surface Heights And Derived Variables Reprocessed 1993 Ongoing, E.U. Copernicus Marine Service Information (CMEMS), Marine Data Store (MDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00148, 2026b. a
Dai, A.: Hydroclimatic trends during 1950–2018 over global land, Clim. Dynam., 56, 4027–4049, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05684-1, 2021. a
Danabasoglu, G., Yeager, S. G., Kim, W. M., Behrens, E., Bentsen, M., Bi, D., Biastoch, A., Bleck, R., Böning, C., Bozec, A., Canuto, V. M., Cassou, C., Chassignet, E., Coward, A. C., Danilov, S., Diansky, N., Drange, H., Farneti, R., Fernandez, E., Fogli, P. G., Forget, G., Fujii, Y., Griffies, S. M., Gusev, A., Heimbach, P., Howard, A., Ilicak, M., Jung, T., Karspeck, A. R., Kelley, M., Large, W. G., Leboissetier, A., Lu, J., Madec, G., Marsland, S. J., Masina, S., Navarra, A., Nurser, A. J. G., Pirani, A., Romanou, A., Salas y Mélia, D., Samuels, B. L., Scheinert, M., Sidorenko, D., Sun, S., Treguier, A.-M., Tsujino, H., Uotila, P., Valcke, S., Voldoire, A., Wang, Q., and Yashayaev, I.: North Atlantic simulations in Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments phase II (CORE-II). Part II: Inter-annual to decadal variability, Ocean Model., 97, 65–90, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2015.11.007, 2016. a
Davis, X. J., Joyce, T. M., and Kwon, Y.-O.: Prediction of silver hake distribution on the Northeast US shelf based on the Gulf Stream path index, Cont. Shelf Res., 138, 51–64, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2017.03.003, 2017. a
Edson, J. B., Jampana, V., Weller, R. A., Bigorre, S. P., Plueddemann, A. J., Fairall, C. W., Miller, S. D., Mahrt, L., Vickers, D., and Hersbach, H.: On the exchange of momentum over the open ocean, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 43, 1589–1610, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-12-0173.1, 2013. a
Egbert, G. D. and Erofeeva, S. Y.: Efficient inverse modeling of barotropic ocean tides, J. Atmos. Ocean. Techn., 19, 183–204, 2002. a
Ezer, T.: Can the Gulf Stream induce coherent short-term fluctuations in sea level along the US East Coast? A modeling study, Ocean Dynam., 66, 207–220, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-016-0928-0, 2016. a
Fratantoni, P. S. and Pickart, R. S.: The western North Atlantic shelfbreak current system in summer, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 37, 2509–2533, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO3123.1, 2007. a, b, c, d
Friedland, K. D., Miles, T., Goode, A. G., Powell, E. N., and Brady, D. C.: The Middle Atlantic Bight Cold Pool is warming and shrinking: indices from in situ autumn seafloor temperatures, Fish. Oceanogr., 31, 217–223, https://doi.org/10.1111/fog.12573, 2022. a
Friedland, K. D., Du Pontavice, H., Palter, J., Townsend, D. W., Fratantoni, P., Silver, A., and Gangopadhyay, A.: Regime change in northwest Atlantic sea surface temperatures revealed using a quantile approach, Regional Studies in Marine Science, 71, 103398, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsma.2024.103398, 2024. a
Friedland, K. D., Scopel, L. C., Yang, X., Gaichas, S. K., and Rokosz, K. J.: Species richness in the Northeast US Continental Shelf ecosystem: Climate-driven trends and perturbations, PLOS Climate, 4, e0000557, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000557, 2025. a
Gartland, J., Gaichas, S. K., and Latour, R. J.: Spatiotemporal patterns in the ecological community of the nearshore Mid-Atlantic Bight, Mar. Ecol.-Prog. Ser., 704, 15–33, https://doi.org/10.3354/meps14235, 2023. a
Gawarkiewicz, G., Todd, R. E., Zhang, W., Partida, J., Gangopadhyay, A., Monim, M.-U.-H., Fratantoni, P., Mercer, A. M., and Dent, M.: The changing nature of shelf-break exchange revealed by the OOI Pioneer Array, Oceanography, 31, 60–70, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2018.110, 2018. a
Gawarkiewicz, G., Fratantoni, P., Bahr, F., and Ellertson, A.: Increasing frequency of mid-depth salinity maximum intrusions in the middle Atlantic bight, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 127, e2021JC018233, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC018233, 2022. a
Gawarkiewicz, G. G., Todd, R. E., Plueddemann, A. J., Andres, M., and Manning, J. P.: Direct interaction between the Gulf Stream and the shelfbreak south of New England, Sci. Rep., 2, 553, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep00553, 2012. a, b
Gonçalves Neto, A., Langan, J. A., and Palter, J. B.: Changes in the Gulf Stream preceded rapid warming of the Northwest Atlantic Shelf, Commun. Earth Environ., 2, 74, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00143-5, 2021. a, b, c
Guo, Y., Bachman, S., Bryan, F., and Bishop, S.: Increasing trends in oceanic surface poleward eddy heat flux observed over the past three decades, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL099362, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099362, 2022a. a
Guo, Y., Bishop, S., Bryan, F., and Bachman, S.: A global diagnosis of eddy potential energy budget in an eddy-permitting ocean model, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 52, 1731–1748, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-22-0029.1, 2022b. a
Guo, Y., Bishop, S., Bryan, F., and Bachman, S.: Mesoscale variability linked to interannual displacement of Gulf Stream, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2022GL102549, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102549, 2023. a, b, c
Guo, Y., Castillo-Trujillo, A. C., Chen, K., Kwon, Y.-O., Perkins, S., Seo, H., Fratantoni, P., Alexander, M., and Saba, V.: Data for “Assessing the Multi-Year Predictability of Ocean Conditions on the U.S. Northeast Shelf Using Dynamical Downscaling”, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20115945, 2026. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a
Hervieux, G., Alexander, M., Stock, C., Jacox, M., Pegion, K., Becker, E., Castruccio, F., and Tommasi, D.: More reliable coastal SST forecasts from the North American multimodel ensemble, Clim. Dynam., 53, 7153–7168, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3652-7, 2019. a, b, c
Huang, B., Liu, C., Banzon, V., Freeman, E., Graham, G., Hankins, B., Smith, T., and Zhang, H.-M.: Improvements of the daily optimum interpolation sea surface temperature (DOISST) version 2.1, J. Climate, 34, 2923–2939, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0166.1, 2021. a
Hunke, E. C., Lipscomb, W. H., Turner, A. K., Jeffery, N., and Elliott, S.: Cice: the los alamos sea ice model documentation and software user's manual version 4.1 la-cc-06-012, T-3 Fluid Dynamics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, 675, 500, 2010. a
Hurrell, J. W., Holland, M. M., Gent, P. R., Ghan, S., Kay, J. E., Kushner, P. J., Lamarque, J.-F., Large, W. G., Lawrence, D., Lindsay, K., Lipscomb, W. H., Long, M. C., Mahowald, N., Marsh, D. R., Neale, R. B., Rasch, P., Vavrus, S., Vertenstein, M., Bader, D., Collins, W. D., Hack, J. J., Kiehl, J., and Marshall, S.: The community earth system model: a framework for collaborative research, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94, 1339–1360, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00121.1, 2013. a
Jacox, M. G., Alexander, M. A., Siedlecki, S., Chen, K., Kwon, Y.-O., Brodie, S., Ortiz, I., Tommasi, D., Widlansky, M. J., Barrie, D., Capotondi, A., Cheng, W., Di Lorenzo, E., Edwards, C., Fiechter, J., Fratantoni, P., Hazen, E. L., Hermann, A. J., Kumar, A., Miller, A. J., Pirhalla, D., Pozo Buil, M., Ray, S., Sheridan, S. C., Subramanian, A., Thompson, P., Thorne, L., Annamalai, H., Aydin, K., Bograd, S. J., Griffis, R. B., Kearney, K., Kim, H., Mariotti, A., Merrifield, M., and Rykaczewski, R.: Seasonal-to-interannual prediction of North American coastal marine ecosystems: Forecast methods, mechanisms of predictability, and priority developments, Prog. Oceanogr., 183, 102307, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2020.102307, 2020. a
Karmalkar, A. V. and Horton, R. M.: Drivers of exceptional coastal warming in the northeastern United States, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 854–860, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01159-7, 2021. a
Kay, J. E., Deser, C., Phillips, A., Mai, A., Hannay, C., Strand, G., Arblaster, J. M., Bates, S. C., Danabasoglu, G., Edwards, J., Holland, M. M., Kushner, P. J., Lamarque, J.-F., Lawrence, D., Lindsay, K., Middleton, A., Munoz, E., Neale, R. B., Oleson, K., Polvani, L., and Vertenstein, M.: The Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble project: A community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 1333–1349, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1, 2015. a
Kelly, K. A., Small, R. J., Samelson, R., Qiu, B., Joyce, T. M., Kwon, Y.-O., and Cronin, M. F.: Western boundary currents and frontal air–sea interaction: Gulf Stream and Kuroshio Extension, J. Climate, 23, 5644–5667, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3346.1, 2010. a
Koul, V., Ross, A. C., Stock, C., Zhang, L., Delworth, T., and Wittenberg, A.: A predicted pause in the rapid warming of the Northwest Atlantic Shelf in the coming decade, Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, e2024GL110946, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110946, 2024. a, b
Kwon, Y.-O., Alexander, M. A., Bond, N. A., Frankignoul, C., Nakamura, H., Qiu, B., and Thompson, L. A.: Role of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio–Oyashio systems in large-scale atmosphere–ocean interaction: A review, J. Climate, 23, 3249–3281, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3343.1, 2010. a
Lawrence, D. M., Oleson, K. W., Flanner, M. G., Thornton, P. E., Swenson, S. C., Lawrence, P. J., Zeng, X., Yang, Z.-L., Levis, S., Sakaguchi, K., Bonan, G. B., and Slater, A. G.: Parameterization improvements and functional and structural advances in version 4 of the Community Land Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 3, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011MS00045, 2011. a
Lellouche, J.-M., Greiner, E., Bourdallé-Badie, R., Garric, G., Melet, A., Drévillon, M., Bricaud, C., Hamon, M., Le Galloudec, O., Regnier, C., Candela, T., Testut, C.-E., Gasparin, F., Ruggiero, G., Benkiran, M., Drillet, Y., and Le Traon, P.-Y.: The Copernicus global
Lentz, S. J.: Seasonal warming of the Middle Atlantic Bight Cold Pool, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 122, 941–954, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC012201, 2017. a
Link, J. S., Brodziak, J. K., Edwards, S. F., Overholtz, W. J., Mountain, D., Jossi, J. W., Smith, T. D., and Fogarty, M. J.: Marine ecosystem assessment in a fisheries management context, Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci., 59, 1429–1440, https://doi.org/10.1139/f02-115, 2002. a, b
Loder, J.: The Coastal Ocean off Northeastern North America: A Large-Scale View, The Sea, Regional Studies and Syntheses, 1998. a
Lucey, S. M. and Nye, J. A.: Shifting species assemblages in the northeast US continental shelf large marine ecosystem, Mar. Ecol.-Prog. Ser., 415, 23–33, https://doi.org/10.3354/meps08743, 2010. a
Mason, E., Molemaker, J., Shchepetkin, A. F., Colas, F., McWilliams, J. C., and Sangrà, P.: Procedures for offline grid nesting in regional ocean models, Ocean Model., 35, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2010.05.007, 2010. a
McHenry, J., Welch, H., Lester, S. E., and Saba, V.: Projecting marine species range shifts from only temperature can mask climate vulnerability, Glob. Change Biol., 25, 4208–4221, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14828, 2019. a
Meehl, G. A., Goddard, L. M., Murphy, J., Stouffer, R. J., Boer, G., Danabasoglu, G., Dixon, K., Giorgetta, M. A., Greene, A. M., Hawkins, E., Hegerl, G., Karoly, D., Keenlyside, N., Kimoto, M., Kirtman, B., Navarra, A., Pulwarty, R., Smith, D., Stammer, D., and Stockdale, T.: Decadal prediction: can it be skillful?, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 1467–1486, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2778.1, 2009. a
Meehl, G. A., Richter, J. H., Teng, H., Capotondi, A., Cobb, K., Doblas-Reyes, F., Donat, M. G., England, M. H., Fyfe, J. C., Han, W., Kim, H., Kirtman, B. P., Kushnir, Y., Lovenduski, N. S., Mann, M. E., Merryfield, W. J., Nieves, V., Pegion, K., Rosenbloom, N., Sanchez, S. C., Scaife, A. A., Smith, D., Subramanian, A. C., Sun, L., Thompson, D., Ummenhofer, C. C., and Xie, S.-P.: Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 2, 340–357, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-021-00155-x, 2021. a
Miles, T., Murphy, S., Kohut, J., Borsetti, S., and Munroe, D.: Offshore wind energy and the Mid-Atlantic Cold Pool: a review of potential interactions, Mar. Technol. Soc. J., 55, 72–87, https://doi.org/10.4031/MTSJ.55.4.8, 2021. a, b
Nye, J. A., Joyce, T. M., Kwon, Y.-O., and Link, J. S.: Silver hake tracks changes in Northwest Atlantic circulation, Nat. Commun., 2, 412, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms1420, 2011. a
O'Kane, T. J., Scaife, A. A., Kushnir, Y., Brookshaw, A., Buontempo, C., Carlin, D., Connell, R. K., Doblas-Reyes, F., Dunstone, N., Förster, K., Graça, A., Hobday, A. J., Kitsios, V., van der Laan, L., Lockwood, J., Merryfield, W. J., Paxian, A., Payne, M. R., Reader, M. C., Saville, G. R., Smith, D., Solaraju-Murali, B., Caltabiano, N., Carman, J., Hawkins, E., Keenlyside, N., Kumar, A., Matei, D., Pohlmann, H., Power, S., Raphael, M., Sparrow, M., and Wu, B.: Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions, Frontiers in Climate, 5, 1121626, https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1121626, 2023. a
Park, S., Bretherton, C. S., and Rasch, P. J.: Integrating cloud processes in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5, J. Climate, 27, 6821–6856, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00087.1, 2014. a
Pershing, A. J., Alexander, M. A., Hernandez, C. M., Kerr, L. A., Le Bris, A., Mills, K. E., Nye, J. A., Record, N. R., Scannell, H. A., Scott, J. D., Sherwood, G. D., and Thomas, A. C.: Slow adaptation in the face of rapid warming leads to collapse of the Gulf of Maine cod fishery, Science, 350, 809–812, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac9819, 2015. a, b, c
Pringle, J. M.: Sources of variability in Gulf of Maine circulation, and the observations needed to model it, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II, 53, 2457–2476, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2006.08.015, 2006. a
Reynolds, R. W., Rayner, N., Smith, T., Stokes, D., and Wang, W.: NOAA Optimum Interpolation (OI) Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) Analysis, Version 2, NOAA NCEI [data set], https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.oisst.v2.html (last access: 2024), 2002. a
Reynolds, R. W., Smith, T. M., Liu, C., Chelton, D. B., Casey, K. S., and Schlax, M. G.: Daily high-resolution-blended analyses for sea surface temperature, J. Climate, 20, 5473–5496, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1824.1, 2007. a
Ross, A. C., Stock, C. A., Adcroft, A., Curchitser, E., Hallberg, R., Harrison, M. J., Hedstrom, K., Zadeh, N., Alexander, M., Chen, W., Drenkard, E. J., du Pontavice, H., Dussin, R., Gomez, F., John, J. G., Kang, D., Lavoie, D., Resplandy, L., Roobaert, A., Saba, V., Shin, S.-I., Siedlecki, S., and Simkins, J.: A high-resolution physical–biogeochemical model for marine resource applications in the northwest Atlantic (MOM6-COBALT-NWA12 v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6943–6985, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6943-2023, 2023. a
Ross, A. C., Stock, C. A., Koul, V., Delworth, T. L., Lu, F., Wittenberg, A., and Alexander, M. A.: Dynamically downscaled seasonal ocean forecasts for North American east coast ecosystems, Ocean Sci., 20, 1631–1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1631-2024, 2024. a, b, c
Ryan, S., Ummenhofer, C. C., and Gawarkiewicz, G. G.: Seasonal and interannual salinity variability on the Northeast US continental shelf: Insights from satellite sea surface salinity and implications for stratification, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 129, e2024JC021534, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JC021534, 2024. a, b
Saba, V. S., Griffies, S. M., Anderson, W. G., Winton, M., Alexander, M. A., Delworth, T. L., Hare, J. A., Harrison, M. J., Rosati, A., Vecchi, G. A., and Zhang, R.: Enhanced warming of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean under climate change, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 121, 118–132, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011346, 2016. a, b, c, d
Seidov, D., Mishonov, A., and Parsons, R.: Recent warming and decadal variability of Gulf of Maine and Slope Water, Limnol. Oceanogr., 66, 3472–3488, https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.11892, 2021. a, b
Shchepetkin, A. F. and McWilliams, J. C.: The regional oceanic modeling system (ROMS): a split-explicit, free-surface, topography-following-coordinate oceanic model, Ocean Model., 9, 347–404, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2004.08.002, 2005. a
Smith, R., Jones, P., Briegleb, B., Bryan, F., Danabasoglu, G., Dennis, J., Dukowicz, J., Eden, C., Fox-Kemper, B., Gent, P., Hecht, M., Jayne, S., Jochum, M., Large, W. G., Lindsay, K., Maltrud, M., Norton, N., Peacock, S., Vertenstein, M., and Yeager, S.: The parallel ocean program (POP) reference manual: Ocean component of the community climate system model (CCSM), Rep. LAUR-01853, UCAR (University Corporation for Atmospheric Research), 141, 1–141, 2010. a
Townsend, D. W., Rebuck, N. D., Thomas, M. A., Karp-Boss, L., and Gettings, R. M.: A changing nutrient regime in the Gulf of Maine, Cont. Shelf Res., 30, 820–832, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2010.01.019, 2010. a, b
Wallace, E. J., Looney, L. B., and Gong, D.: Multi-decadal trends and variability in temperature and salinity in the Mid-Atlantic Bight, Georges Bank, and Gulf of Maine, J. Mar. Res., 76, 163, https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/journal_of_marine_research/461 (last access: 25 October 2026), 2018. a
Xu, H., Kim, H.-M., Nye, J. A., and Hameed, S.: Impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation on sea surface temperature on the Northeast US Continental Shelf, Cont. Shelf Res., 105, 60–66, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2015.06.005, 2015. a
Yeager, S. G., Karspeck, A. R., and Danabasoglu, G.: Predicted slowdown in the rate of Atlantic sea ice loss, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 10–704, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065364, 2015. a
Yeager, S. G., Danabasoglu, G., Rosenbloom, N. A., Strand, W., Bates, S. C., Meehl, G. A., Karspeck, A. R., Lindsay, K., Long, M. C., Teng, H., and Lovenduski, N. S.: Predicting near-term changes in the earth system: a large ensemble of initialized decadal prediction simulations using the community earth system model, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 99, 1867–1886, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0098.1, 2018. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j
Yeager, S. G., Rosenbloom, N., Glanville, A. A., Wu, X., Simpson, I., Li, H., Molina, M. J., Krumhardt, K., Mogen, S., Lindsay, K., Lombardozzi, D., Wieder, W., Kim, W. M., Richter, J. H., Long, M., Danabasoglu, G., Bailey, D., Holland, M., Lovenduski, N., Strand, W. G., and King, T.: The Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) prediction system using the Community Earth System Model version 2, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6451–6493, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6451-2022, 2022. a
Yeager, S. G., Chang, P., Danabasoglu, G., Rosenbloom, N., Zhang, Q., Castruccio, F. S., Gopal, A., Cameron Rencurrel, M., and Simpson, I. R.: Reduced Southern Ocean warming enhances global skill and signal-to-noise in an eddy-resolving decadal prediction system, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 6, 107, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00434-y, 2023. a
Short summary
The U.S. Northeast Shelf supports productive fisheries, but global models struggle to predict its ocean conditions years in advance due to poor representation of shelf processes. Using a high-resolution ocean model downscaled from a global system, we show that dynamical downscaling reduces biases and improves multi-year prediction skill by better resolving shelf-slope processes. This work demonstrates how downscaling translates large-scale climate information into actionable coastal predictions.
The U.S. Northeast Shelf supports productive fisheries, but global models struggle to predict...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint