Ocean Science
Ocean Science
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Articles | Volume 22, issue 6
Articles | Volume 22, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-3693-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-3693-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 22, issue 6
Research article
 | 
13 Nov 2026
Research article |  | 13 Nov 2026

Multi-year predictability of hydrography and circulation on the U.S. Northeast Shelf: a dynamical downscaling perspective

Yiming Guo, Alma Carolina Castillo-Trujillo, Ke Chen, Young-Oh Kwon, Sydney Perkins, Hyodae Seo, Paula Fratantoni, Michael Alexander, and Vincent Saba

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Short summary
The U.S. Northeast Shelf supports productive fisheries, but global models struggle to predict its ocean conditions years in advance due to poor representation of shelf processes. Using a high-resolution ocean model downscaled from a global system, we show that dynamical downscaling reduces biases and improves multi-year prediction skill by better resolving shelf-slope processes. This work demonstrates how downscaling translates large-scale climate information into actionable coastal predictions.
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