Ocean Science
Ocean Science
OS
Articles | Volume 22, issue 3
Articles | Volume 22, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1937-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1937-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 22, issue 3
Research article
 | 
23 Jun 2026
Research article |  | 23 Jun 2026

Investigating the predictability of marine heatwaves at subseasonal to seasonal timescales in New Caledonia, South Pacific

Inès Mangolte, Sophie Cravatte, Alexandre Ganachaud, and Christophe Menkes

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Short summary
Marine heatwaves pose a serious threat to marine ecosystems that will become increasingly important with climate change. Here we show in the Southwest Pacific that dynamical forecasting systems are able to forecast long, large-scale marine heatwaves occurring in austral winter, but have less skill in predicting smaller, shorter events, and summer events. We discuss the implications for operational forecasts dedicated to help marine managers to prepare and mitigate some of their impacts.
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