Articles | Volume 22, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1353-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1353-2026
Research article
 | 
27 Apr 2026
Research article |  | 27 Apr 2026

Dynamic and steric sea-level changes due to a collapsing AMOC in the Community Earth System Model

René M. van Westen, Caroline A. Katsman, and Dewi Le Bars

Related authors

Interaction of AMOC and intrinsic multidecadal Southern Ocean variability
Emma J. V. Smolders, René M. van Westen, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Ocean Sci., 22, 1965–1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1965-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1965-2026, 2026
Short summary
Changing European hydroclimate under a collapsed AMOC in the Community Earth System Model
René M. van Westen, Karin van der Wiel, Swinda K. J. Falkena, and Frank Selten
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 6607–6630, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6607-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6607-2025, 2025
Short summary
A saddle-node bifurcation may be causing the AMOC collapse in the Community Earth System Model
René M. van Westen, Elian Vanderborght, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2063–2085, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2063-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2063-2025, 2025
Short summary
Persistent climate model biases in the Atlantic Ocean's freshwater transport
René M. van Westen and Henk A. Dijkstra
Ocean Sci., 20, 549–567, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-549-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-549-2024, 2024
Short summary
Data-driven methods to estimate the committor function in conceptual ocean models
Valérian Jacques-Dumas, René M. van Westen, Freddy Bouchet, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 30, 195–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-195-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-195-2023, 2023
Short summary

Cited articles

Baker, J., Bell, M., Jackson, L., Vallis, G., Watson, A., and Wood, R.: Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-08544-0, 2025. a
Bellomo, K. and Mehling, O.: Impacts and state-dependence of AMOC weakening in a warming climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, e2023GL107624, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107624, 2024. a
Bellomo, K., Meccia, V. L., D’Agostino, R., Fabiano, F., Larson, S. M., von Hardenberg, J., and Corti, S.: Impacts of a weakened AMOC on precipitation over the Euro-Atlantic region in the EC-Earth3 climate model, Clim. Dynam., 61, 3397–3416, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06754-2, 2023. a
Biesbroek, R., Haasnoot, M., Mach, K. J., and Petersen, A. C.: Adaptation planning in the context of a weakening and possibly collapsing Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), Reg. Environ. Change, 25, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-025-02434-5, 2025. a, b
Bingham, R. J. and Hughes, C. W.: Signature of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in sea level along the east coast of North America, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL036215, 2009. a
Download
Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) modulates the global climate and dynamic sea level. A transition of the AMOC to a much weaker state would cause a redistribution of dynamic sea level across the global ocean surface. Here, we analyse climate model simulations to investigate dynamic sea-level changes associated with a collapsing AMOC. Under an AMOC collapse, the dynamic sea level rises substantially in the North Atlantic Ocean.
Share