Nordic overturning increases as AMOC weakens  in response to global warming

Roewer, Sasha; Fiedler, Lukas; Årthun, Marius; Huiskamp, Willem; Rahmstorf, Stefan

doi:10.5194/os-22-1195-2026

Articles | Volume 22, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1195-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1195-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 22, issue 2

Research article

|

20 Apr 2026

Research article |

| 20 Apr 2026

Nordic overturning increases as AMOC weakens in response to global warming

Sasha Roewer, Lukas Fiedler, Marius Årthun, Willem Huiskamp, and Stefan Rahmstorf

Data sets

sasharoewer/AMOC-NOC-BOX-MODEL: AMOC-NOC Box model (AMOC-NOC) S. Roewer https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19589770

World Ocean Atlas 2023, Volume 1: Temperature R. A. Locarnini et al. https://doi.org/10.25923/54bh-1613

World Ocean Atlas 2023, Volume 2: Salinity J. R. Reagan et al. https://doi.org/10.25923/70qt-9574

Short summary

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is weakening in response to global warming, while the Nordic Seas Overturning Circulation (NOC) is projected to strengthen. We suggest a feedback mechanism in which a weakened AMOC leads to reduced salt transport into the North Atlantic, decreasing the density in that region and potentially strengthening the NOC.