Local and remote climatic drivers of extreme summer sea surface temperatures in the Arabian Gulf

Lachkar, Zouhair; Pauluis, Olivier; Paparella, Francesco; Khan, Basit; Burt, John A.

doi:10.5194/os-21-3241-2025

Articles | Volume 21, issue 6

https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-3241-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-3241-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 21, issue 6

Research article

|

02 Dec 2025

Research article |

| 02 Dec 2025

Local and remote climatic drivers of extreme summer sea surface temperatures in the Arabian Gulf

Zouhair Lachkar, Olivier Pauluis, Francesco Paparella, Basit Khan, and John A. Burt

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-3241-2025-supplement

Data sets

Acceleration of warming, deoxygenation and acidification in the Arabian Gulf driven by weakening of summer winds Z. Lachkar https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10987332

ERA-Interim Project, Single Parameter 6-Hourly Surface Analysis and Surface Forecast Time Series ECMWF https://doi.org/10.5065/D64747WN

ORAS5 global ocean reanalysis monthly data from 1958 to present Copernicus Climate Change Service, Climate Data Store https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.67e8eeb7

Model code and software

Coastal and Regional Ocean COmmunity model (1.0) Francis Auclair et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7415056

Short summary

An analysis of model and reanalysis data reveals that extreme summer sea surface temperatures in the Arabian/Persian Gulf are driven by weakened local Shamal winds and intensified monsoon winds over the Arabian Sea. These conditions – typically associated with La Niña and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation phase – increase air moisture over the Gulf and enhance surface heat trapping. The findings offer promising prospects for forecasting summer marine heatwaves in the Gulf.