Articles | Volume 20, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-835-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-835-2024
Research article
 | 
21 Jun 2024
Research article |  | 21 Jun 2024

Twenty-first century marine climate projections for the NW European shelf seas based on a perturbed parameter ensemble

Jonathan Tinker, Matthew D. Palmer, Benjamin J. Harrison, Enda O'Dea, David M. H. Sexton, Kuniko Yamazaki, and John W. Rostron

Related authors

What are the prospects for seasonal prediction of the marine environment of the North-west European Shelf?
Jonathan Tinker, Justin Krijnen, Richard Wood, Rosa Barciela, and Stephen R. Dye
Ocean Sci., 14, 887–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-887-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-887-2018, 2018
Short summary
Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore
Heather Cannaby, Matthew D. Palmer, Tom Howard, Lucy Bricheno, Daley Calvert, Justin Krijnen, Richard Wood, Jonathan Tinker, Chris Bunney, James Harle, Andrew Saulter, Clare O'Neill, Clare Bellingham, and Jason Lowe
Ocean Sci., 12, 613–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-613-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-613-2016, 2016
Short summary

Related subject area

Approach: Numerical Models | Properties and processes: Climate and modes of variability
AdriE: a high-resolution ocean model ensemble for the Adriatic Sea under severe climate change conditions
Davide Bonaldo, Sandro Carniel, Renato R. Colucci, Cléa Denamiel, Petra Pranić, Fabio Raicich, Antonio Ricchi, Lorenzo Sangelantoni, Ivica Vilibić, and Maria Letizia Vitelletti
Ocean Sci., 21, 1003–1031, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1003-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1003-2025, 2025
Short summary
Marine heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea: a convolutional neural network study for extreme event prediction
Antonios Parasyris, Vassiliki Metheniti, Nikolaos Kampanis, and Sofia Darmaraki
Ocean Sci., 21, 897–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-897-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-897-2025, 2025
Short summary
Ocean wave spectrum bias correction through energy conservation for climate change impacts
Andrea Lira Loarca and Giovanni Besio
Ocean Sci., 21, 767–785, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-767-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-767-2025, 2025
Short summary
A new vision of the Adriatic Dense Water future under extreme warming
Cléa Denamiel, Iva Tojčić, and Petra Pranić
Ocean Sci., 21, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-37-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-37-2025, 2025
Short summary
Seafloor marine heatwaves outpace surface events in future on the northwest European shelf
Robert J. Wilson, Yuri Artioli, Giovanni Galli, James Harle, Jason Holt, Ana M. Queiros, and Sarah Wakelin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3810,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3810, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Andrews, T., Andrews, M. B., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Jones, G. S., Kuhlbrodt, T., Manners, J., Menary, M. B., Ridley, J., Ringer, M. A., Sellar, A. A., Senior, C. A., and Tang, Y.: Forcings, Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity in HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 4377–4394, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001866, 2019. 
Betts, R. A., Haward, A. B., and Pearson, K. V.: UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) Technical Report, Prepared for the Climate Change Committee, London, 1478 pp., https://www.ukclimaterisk.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Technical-Report-The-Third-Climate-Change-Risk-Assessment.pdf (last access: 4 June 2024), 2021. 
Boulahia, A. K., García-García, D., Vigo, M. I., Trottini, M., and Sayol, J.-M.: The Water Cycle of the Baltic Sea Region From GRACE/GRACE-FO Missions and ERA5 Data, Front. Earth Sci., 10, 879148, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.879148, 2022. 
Brown, J., Hill, A. E., Fernand, L., and Horsburgh, K. J.: Observations of a seasonal jet-like circulation at the central North Sea cold pool margin, Estuar. Coast. Shelf S., 48, 343–355, 1999. 
Bruciaferri, D., Shapiro, G. I., and Wobus, F.: A multi-envelope vertical coordinate system for numerical ocean modelling, Ocean Dynam., 68, 1239–1258, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-018-1189-x, 2018. 
Download
Short summary
The northwest European shelf (NWS) seas are economically and environmentally important but poorly represented in global climate models (GCMs). We combine use of a shelf sea model with GCM output to provide improved 21st century projections of the NWS. We project a NWS warming of 3.11 °C and freshening of −1.01, and we provide uncertainty estimates. We calculate the climate signal emergence and consider warming levels. We have released our data for the UK's Climate Change Risk Assessment.
Share