Ocean Science
Ocean Science
OS
Articles | Volume 20, issue 3
Articles | Volume 20, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-835-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-835-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 20, issue 3
Research article
 | 
21 Jun 2024
Research article |  | 21 Jun 2024

Twenty-first century marine climate projections for the NW European shelf seas based on a perturbed parameter ensemble

Jonathan Tinker, Matthew D. Palmer, Benjamin J. Harrison, Enda O'Dea, David M. H. Sexton, Kuniko Yamazaki, and John W. Rostron

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Short summary
The northwest European shelf (NWS) seas are economically and environmentally important but poorly represented in global climate models (GCMs). We combine use of a shelf sea model with GCM output to provide improved 21st century projections of the NWS. We project a NWS warming of 3.11 °C and freshening of −1.01, and we provide uncertainty estimates. We calculate the climate signal emergence and consider warming levels. We have released our data for the UK's Climate Change Risk Assessment.
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