Twenty-first century marine climate projections for the NW European shelf seas based on a perturbed parameter ensemble

Tinker, Jonathan; Palmer, Matthew D.; Harrison, Benjamin J.; O'Dea, Enda; Sexton, David M. H.; Yamazaki, Kuniko; Rostron, John W.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-835-2024

Articles | Volume 20, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-835-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-835-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 20, issue 3

Research article

|

21 Jun 2024

Research article |

| 21 Jun 2024

Twenty-first century marine climate projections for the NW European shelf seas based on a perturbed parameter ensemble

Jonathan Tinker, Matthew D. Palmer, Benjamin J. Harrison, Enda O'Dea, David M. H. Sexton, Kuniko Yamazaki, and John W. Rostron

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-835-2024-supplement

Data sets

Physical Marine Climate Projections for the North West European Shelf Seas: NWSPPE Jonathan Tinker https://doi.org/10.5285/edf66239c70c426e9e9f19da1ac8ba87

Physical Marine Climate Projections for the North West European Shelf Seas: EnsStats Jonathan Tinker https://doi.org/10.5285/bd375134bd8c4990a1e9eb6d199cc723

Physical Marine Climate Projections for the North West European Shelf Seas: PDCtrl Jonathan Tinker https://doi.org/10.5285/66e39885a60e4b6386752b1a295f268a

Model code and software

NEMO_4.0.4_CO9_shelf_climate Jonathan Tinker https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10912049

NEMO_3.6_CO6_shelf_climate Jonathan Tinker https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10912062

NWS_simulations_postproc Jonathan Tinker https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10912080

hadjt/CurrUncertEllipses: Ensemble Statistics J. Tinker and J. A. Polton https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11370979

Short summary

The northwest European shelf (NWS) seas are economically and environmentally important but poorly represented in global climate models (GCMs). We combine use of a shelf sea model with GCM output to provide improved 21st century projections of the NWS. We project a NWS warming of 3.11 °C and freshening of −1.01, and we provide uncertainty estimates. We calculate the climate signal emergence and consider warming levels. We have released our data for the UK's Climate Change Risk Assessment.