Ocean Science
Ocean Science
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Articles | Volume 19, issue 6
Articles | Volume 19, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1753-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1753-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 19, issue 6
Research article
 | 
08 Dec 2023
Research article |  | 08 Dec 2023

Uncertainties and discrepancies in the representation of recent storm surges in a non-tidal semi-enclosed basin: a hindcast ensemble for the Baltic Sea

Marvin Lorenz and Ulf Gräwe

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Latest update: 25 Jun 2026
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Short summary
We study the variability of extreme sea levels in a 13 member hindcast ensemble for the Baltic Sea. The ensemble mean shows good agreement with observations regarding return levels and trends. However, we find great variability and uncertainty within the ensemble. We argue that the variability of storms in the atmospheric data directly translates into the variability of the return levels. These results highlight the need for large regional ensembles to minimise uncertainties.
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