Uncertainties and discrepancies in the representation of recent storm surges in a non-tidal semi-enclosed basin: a hindcast ensemble for the Baltic Sea

Lorenz, Marvin; Gräwe, Ulf

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1753-2023

Articles | Volume 19, issue 6

https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1753-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1753-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 19, issue 6

Research article

|

08 Dec 2023

Research article |

| 08 Dec 2023

Uncertainties and discrepancies in the representation of recent storm surges in a non-tidal semi-enclosed basin: a hindcast ensemble for the Baltic Sea

Marvin Lorenz and Ulf Gräwe

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1753-2023-supplement

Data sets

Datasets, model code, and analysis scripts Marvin Lorenz, Ulf Gräwe https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8340649

Climate Data Store: UERRA regional reanalysis for Europe on height levels from 1961 to 2019 Copernicus Climate Change Service https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.44ec8078

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present H. Hersbach, B. Bell, P. Berrisford, G. Biavati, A. Horányi, J. Muñoz Sabater, J. Nicolas, C. Peubey, R. Radu, I. Rozum, D. Schepers, A. Simmons, C. Soci, D. Dee, and J.-N. Thépaut https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47

Short summary

We study the variability of extreme sea levels in a 13 member hindcast ensemble for the Baltic Sea. The ensemble mean shows good agreement with observations regarding return levels and trends. However, we find great variability and uncertainty within the ensemble. We argue that the variability of storms in the atmospheric data directly translates into the variability of the return levels. These results highlight the need for large regional ensembles to minimise uncertainties.