Articles | Volume 18, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1619-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1619-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Nov 2022
Research article |
| 21 Nov 2022
| 21 Nov 2022
Ensemble quantification of short-term predictability of the ocean dynamics at a kilometric-scale resolution: a Western Mediterranean test case
Stephanie Leroux
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Ocean Next, Grenoble, France
Datlas, Grenoble, France
Jean-Michel Brankart
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Aurélie Albert
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Ocean Next, Grenoble, France
Laurent Brodeau
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Ocean Next, Grenoble, France
Jean-Marc Molines
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Quentin Jamet
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Julien Le Sommer
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Thierry Penduff
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Pierre Brasseur
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
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Flows in the ocean are driven either by atmospheric forces or by small-scale internal disturbances that are inherently chaotic. We use computer simulation results to show that these chaotic oceanic disturbances can attain spatial scales large enough to alter the motion of Earth’s pole of rotation. Given their size and unpredictable nature, the chaotic signals are a source of uncertainty when interpreting observed year-to-year polar motion changes in terms of other processes in the Earth system.
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Ivan Zavialov, Alexander Osadchiev, Roman Sedakov, Bernard Barnier, Jean-Marc Molines, and Vladimir Belokopytov
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Ann-Sophie Tissier, Jean-Michel Brankart, Charles-Emmanuel Testut, Giovanni Ruggiero, Emmanuel Cosme, and Pierre Brasseur
Ocean Sci., 15, 443–457, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-443-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-443-2019, 2019
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Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2018-153, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2018-153, 2019
Publication in OS not foreseen
Laurent Bessières, Stéphanie Leroux, Jean-Michel Brankart, Jean-Marc Molines, Marie-Pierre Moine, Pierre-Antoine Bouttier, Thierry Penduff, Laurent Terray, Bernard Barnier, and Guillaume Sérazin
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1091–1106, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1091-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1091-2017, 2017
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A. M. Treguier, J. Deshayes, J. Le Sommer, C. Lique, G. Madec, T. Penduff, J.-M. Molines, B. Barnier, R. Bourdalle-Badie, and C. Talandier
Ocean Sci., 10, 243–255, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-243-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-243-2014, 2014
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Short summary
The goal of the study is to evaluate the predictability of the ocean circulation
at a kilometric scale, in order to anticipate the requirements of the future operational forecasting systems. For that purpose, ensemble experiments have been performed with a regional model for the Western Mediterranean (at 1/60° horizontal resolution). From these ensemble experiments, we show that it is possible to compute targeted predictability scores, which depend on initial and model uncertainties.
The goal of the study is to evaluate the predictability of the ocean circulation
at a...
