Ocean Science
Ocean Science
OS
Articles | Volume 18, issue 6
Articles | Volume 18, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1619-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1619-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 18, issue 6
Research article
 | 
21 Nov 2022
Research article |  | 21 Nov 2022

Ensemble quantification of short-term predictability of the ocean dynamics at a kilometric-scale resolution: a Western Mediterranean test case

Stephanie Leroux, Jean-Michel Brankart, Aurélie Albert, Laurent Brodeau, Jean-Marc Molines, Quentin Jamet, Julien Le Sommer, Thierry Penduff, and Pierre Brasseur

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Latest update: 21 Jan 2025
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Short summary
The goal of the study is to evaluate the predictability of the ocean circulation at a kilometric scale, in order to anticipate the requirements of the future operational forecasting systems. For that purpose, ensemble experiments have been performed with a regional model for the Western Mediterranean (at 1/60° horizontal resolution). From these ensemble experiments, we show that it is possible to compute targeted predictability scores, which depend on initial and model uncertainties.
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