Articles | Volume 15, issue 3
Ocean Sci., 15, 809–817, 2019
Ocean Sci., 15, 809–817, 2019

Research article 21 Jun 2019

Research article | 21 Jun 2019

Surface predictor of overturning circulation and heat content change in the subpolar North Atlantic

Damien G. Desbruyères et al.

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Cited articles

Bersch, M., Yashayaev, I., and Koltermann, K. P.: Recent changes of the thermohaline circulation in the subpolar North Atlantic, Ocean Dynam., 57, 223–235,, 2007. 
Bower, A. S., Lozier, M. S., Gary, S. F., and Böning, C. W.: Interior pathways of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Nature, 459, 243–247,, 2009. 
Brambilla, E., Talley, L. D., and Robbins, P. E.: Subpolar mode water in the northeastern Atlantic: 2. Origin and transformation, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 113, 1–16,, 2008. 
Bryden, H. L., King, B. A., McCarthy, G. D., and McDonagh, E. L.: Impact of a 30 % reduction in Atlantic meridional overturning during 2009–2010, Ocean Sci., 10, 683–691,, 2014. 
Buckley, M. W. and Marshall, J.: Observations, inferences, and mechanisms of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A review, Rev. Geophys., 54, 5–63,, 2016. 
Short summary
In the North Atlantic, ocean currents transport warm waters northward in the upper water column, and cold waters southwards at depth. This circulation is here reconstructed from surface data and thermodynamics theory. Its driving role in recent temperature changes (1993–2017) in the North Atlantic is evidenced, and predictions of near-future variability (5 years) are provided and discussed.