Articles | Volume 15, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-669-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-669-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Jun 2019
Research article |
| 05 Jun 2019
| 05 Jun 2019
Can wave coupling improve operational regional ocean forecasts for the north-west European Shelf?
Huw W. Lewis
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Juan Manuel Castillo Sanchez
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
John Siddorn
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Robert R. King
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Marina Tonani
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Andrew Saulter
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Peter Sykes
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Anne-Christine Pequignet
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Graham P. Weedon
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Tamzin Palmer
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Joanna Staneva
Institute for Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht,
Max-Planck-Strasse 1, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany
Lucy Bricheno
National Oceanography Centre, Joseph Proudman Building, 6 Brownlow
Street, Liverpool, L3 5DA, UK
Related authors
Mike Bush, Ian Boutle, John Edwards, Anke Finnenkoetter, Charmaine Franklin, Kirsty Hanley, Aravindakshan Jayakumar, Huw Lewis, Adrian Lock, Marion Mittermaier, Saji Mohandas, Rachel North, Aurore Porson, Belinda Roux, Stuart Webster, and Mark Weeks
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1713–1734, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1713-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1713-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Building on the baseline of RAL1, the RAL2 science configuration is used for regional modelling around the UM partnership and in operations at the Met Office. RAL2 has been tested in different parts of the world including Australia, India and the UK. RAL2 increases medium and low cloud amounts in the mid-latitudes compared to RAL1, leading to improved cloud forecasts and a reduced diurnal cycle of screen temperature. There is also a reduction in the frequency of heavier precipitation rates.
Juan Manuel Castillo, Huw W. Lewis, Akhilesh Mishra, Ashis Mitra, Jeff Polton, Ashley Brereton, Andrew Saulter, Alex Arnold, Segolene Berthou, Douglas Clark, Julia Crook, Ananda Das, John Edwards, Xiangbo Feng, Ankur Gupta, Sudheer Joseph, Nicholas Klingaman, Imranali Momin, Christine Pequignet, Claudio Sanchez, Jennifer Saxby, and Maria Valdivieso da Costa
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4193–4223, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4193-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4193-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A new environmental modelling system has been developed to represent the effect of feedbacks between atmosphere, land, and ocean in the Indian region. Different approaches to simulating tropical cyclones Titli and Fani are demonstrated. It is shown that results are sensitive to the way in which the ocean response to cyclone evolution is captured in the system. Notably, we show how a more rigorous formulation for the near-surface energy budget can be included when air–sea coupling is included.
Julia Rulent, Lucy M. Bricheno, J. A. Mattias Green, Ivan D. Haigh, and Huw Lewis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3339–3351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3339-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3339-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
High coastal total water levels (TWLs) can lead to flooding and hazardous conditions for coastal communities and environment. In this research we are using numerical models to study the interactions between the three main components of the TWL (waves, tides, and surges) on UK and Irish coasts during winter 2013/14. The main finding of this research is that extreme waves and surges can indeed happen together, even at high tide, but they often occurred simultaneously 2–3 h before high tide.
Jennifer Saxby, Julia Crook, Simon Peatman, Cathryn Birch, Juliane Schwendike, Maria Valdivieso da Costa, Juan Manuel Castillo Sanchez, Chris Holloway, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Ashis Mitra, and Huw Lewis
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-46, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-46, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the ability of the new Met Office IND1 numerical model to simulate tropical cyclones and their associated hazards, such as high winds and heavy rainfall. The new system consists of both atmospheric and oceanic models coupled together, allowing us to explore the sensitivity of cyclones to important air–sea feedbacks. We find that the model can accurately simulate tropical cyclone position, structure, and intensity, which are crucial for predicting and mitigating hazards.
Simon J. Dadson, Eleanor Blyth, Douglas Clark, Helen Davies, Richard Ellis, Huw Lewis, Toby Marthews, and Ponnambalan Rameshwaran
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-60, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-60, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Flood prediction helps national and regional planning and real-time flood response. In this study we apply and test a new way to make wide area predictions of flooding which can be combined with weather forecasting and climate models to give faster predictions of flooded areas. By simplifying the detailed floodplain topography we can keep track of the fraction of land flooded for hazard mapping purposes. When tested this approach accurately reproduces benchmark datasets for England.
Huw W. Lewis, John Siddorn, Juan Manuel Castillo Sanchez, Jon Petch, John M. Edwards, and Tim Smyth
Ocean Sci., 15, 761–778, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-761-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-761-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Oceans are modified at the surface by winds and by the exchange of heat with the atmosphere. The effect of changing atmospheric information that is available to drive an ocean model of north-west Europe, which can simulate small-scale details of the ocean state, is tested. We show that simulated temperatures agree better with observations located near the coast around the south-west UK when using data from a high-resolution atmospheric model, and when atmosphere and ocean feedbacks are included.
Huw W. Lewis, Juan Manuel Castillo Sanchez, Alex Arnold, Joachim Fallmann, Andrew Saulter, Jennifer Graham, Mike Bush, John Siddorn, Tamzin Palmer, Adrian Lock, John Edwards, Lucy Bricheno, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, and James Clark
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2357–2400, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2357-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2357-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In the real world the atmosphere, oceans and land surface are closely interconnected, and yet the prediction systems used for weather and ocean forecasting tend to treat them in isolation. This paper describes the third version of a regional modelling system which aims to represent the feedback processes between sky, sea and land. The main innovation introduced in this version enables waves to affect the underlying ocean. Coupled results from four different month-long simulations are analysed.
Huw W. Lewis, Juan Manuel Castillo Sanchez, Jennifer Graham, Andrew Saulter, Jorge Bornemann, Alex Arnold, Joachim Fallmann, Chris Harris, David Pearson, Steven Ramsdale, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, Lucy Bricheno, Eleanor Blyth, Victoria A. Bell, Helen Davies, Toby R. Marthews, Clare O'Neill, Heather Rumbold, Enda O'Dea, Ashley Brereton, Karen Guihou, Adrian Hines, Momme Butenschon, Simon J. Dadson, Tamzin Palmer, Jason Holt, Nick Reynard, Martin Best, John Edwards, and John Siddorn
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1–42, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In the real world the atmosphere, oceans and land surface are closely interconnected, and yet prediction systems tend to treat them in isolation. Those feedbacks are often illustrated in natural hazards, such as when strong winds lead to large waves and coastal damage, or when prolonged rainfall leads to saturated ground and high flowing rivers. For the first time, we have attempted to represent some of the feedbacks between sky, sea and land within a high-resolution forecast system for the UK.
J. R. Siddorn, S. A. Good, C. M. Harris, H. W. Lewis, J. Maksymczuk, M. J. Martin, and A. Saulter
Ocean Sci., 12, 217–231, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-217-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-217-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Met Office provides a range of services in the marine environment. To support these services, and to ensure they evolve to meet the demands of users and are based on the best available science, a number of scientific challenges need to be addressed. The paper summarises the key challenges, and highlights some priorities for the ocean monitoring and forecasting research group at the Met Office.
I. D. Culverwell, H. W. Lewis, D. Offiler, C. Marquardt, and C. P. Burrows
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 1887–1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-1887-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-1887-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the Radio Occultation Processing Package, ROPP, which is a suite of freely available programs provided by EUMETSAT for the processing of radio occultation data. Its capabilities are briefly reviewed, and examples of its use are given. Some current and prospective uses of ROPP are listed.
Robert R. King, Matthew J. Martin, Lucile Gaultier, Jennifer Waters, Clément Ubelmann, and Craig Donlon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-756, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-756, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use simulations of our ocean forecasting system to compare the impact of additional altimeter observations from two proposed future satellite constellations. We found that in our system an altimeter constellation of 12 nadir altimeters produces improved predictions of sea surface height, surface currents, temperature and salinity compared to a constellation of 2 wide-swath altimeters.
Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Angélique Melet, Debora Bellafiore, Michalis Vousdoukas, Paula Camus, Christian Ferrarin, Gualbert Oude Essink, Ivan D. Haigh, Piero Lionello, Arjen Luijendijk, Alexandra Toimil, and Joanna Staneva
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2023-38, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2023-38, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for SP
Short summary
Short summary
Sea level rise has major impacts in Europe which vary from place to place and in time depending on the source of the impacts. Flooding, erosion and saltwater intrusion lead via different pathways to various consequences in coastal regions across Europe. It causes damage to assets, environment and people for all three categories of impacts discussed in this paper. The paper provides an overview of the various impacts in Europe.
Carolina B. Gramcianinov, Joanna Staneva, Celia R. G. Souza, Priscila Linhares, Ricardo de Camargo, and Pedro L. da Silva Dias
State Planet, 1-osr7, 12, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-12-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-12-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse extreme wave event trends in the south-western South Atlantic in the last 29 years using wave products and coastal hazard records. The results show important regional changes associated with increased mean sea wave height, wave period, and wave power. We also find a rise in the number of coastal hazards related to waves affecting the state of São Paulo, Brazil, which partially agrees with the increase in extreme waves in the adjacent ocean sector but is also driven by local factors.
Stefania A. Ciliberti, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Jay Pearlman, Kirsten Wilmer-Becker, Pierre Bahurel, Fabrice Ardhuin, Alain Arnaud, Mike Bell, Segolene Berthou, Laurent Bertino, Arthur Capet, Eric Chassignet, Stefano Ciavatta, Mauro Cirano, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Gianpaolo Coro, Stuart Corney, Fraser Davidson, Marie Drevillon, Yann Drillet, Renaud Dussurget, Ghada El Serafy, Katja Fennel, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Patrick Heimbach, Fabrice Hernandez, Patrick Hogan, Ibrahim Hoteit, Sudheer Joseph, Simon Josey, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Simone Libralato, Marco Mancini, Pascal Matte, Angelique Melet, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Andrew M. Moore, Antonio Novellino, Andrew Porter, Heather Regan, Laia Romero, Andreas Schiller, John Siddorn, Joanna Staneva, Cecile Thomas-Courcoux, Marina Tonani, Jose Maria Garcia-Valdecasas, Jennifer Veitch, Karina von Schuckmann, Liying Wan, John Wilkin, and Romane Zufic
State Planet, 1-osr7, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, 2023
Wei Chen and Joanna Staneva
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2023-33, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2023-33, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for SP
Short summary
Short summary
Marine heatwaves (MHWs), which are the unusually warm periods in the ocean, are becoming more frequent and lasting longer in the North West European Shelf (NWES), particularly near the coast, from 1993 to 2023. However, thermal stratification is weakening, implying that the sea surface warming caused by MHWs is insufficient to counteract the overall stratification decline due to global warming. Moreover, the varying salinity has a notable impact on the trend of density stratification change.
Nieves G. Valiente, Andrew Saulter, Breogan Gomez, Christopher Bunney, Jian-Guo Li, Tamzin Palmer, and Christine Pequignet
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2515–2538, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2515-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2515-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We document the Met Office operational global and regional wave models which provide wave forecasts up to 7 d ahead. Our models present coarser resolution offshore to higher resolution near the coastline. The increased resolution led to replication of the extremes but to some overestimation during modal conditions. If currents are included, wave directions and long period swells near the coast are significantly improved. New developments focus on the optimisation of the models with resolution.
Tamzin E. Palmer, Carol F. McSweeney, Ben B. B. Booth, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Paolo Davini, Lukas Brunner, Leonard Borchert, and Matthew B. Menary
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 457–483, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-457-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-457-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We carry out an assessment of an ensemble of general climate models (CMIP6) based on the ability of the models to represent the key physical processes that are important for representing European climate. Filtering the models with the assessment leads to more models with less global warming being removed, and this shifts the lower part of the projected temperature range towards greater warming. This is in contrast to the affect of weighting the ensemble using global temperature trends.
Mike Bush, Ian Boutle, John Edwards, Anke Finnenkoetter, Charmaine Franklin, Kirsty Hanley, Aravindakshan Jayakumar, Huw Lewis, Adrian Lock, Marion Mittermaier, Saji Mohandas, Rachel North, Aurore Porson, Belinda Roux, Stuart Webster, and Mark Weeks
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1713–1734, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1713-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1713-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Building on the baseline of RAL1, the RAL2 science configuration is used for regional modelling around the UM partnership and in operations at the Met Office. RAL2 has been tested in different parts of the world including Australia, India and the UK. RAL2 increases medium and low cloud amounts in the mid-latitudes compared to RAL1, leading to improved cloud forecasts and a reduced diurnal cycle of screen temperature. There is also a reduction in the frequency of heavier precipitation rates.
Kathrin Wahle, Emil V. Stanev, and Joanna Staneva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 415–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-415-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-415-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Knowledge of what causes maximum water levels is often key in coastal management. Processes, such as storm surge and atmospheric forcing, alter the predicted tide. Whilst most of these processes are modeled in present-day ocean forecasting, there is still a need for a better understanding of situations where modeled and observed water levels deviate from each other. Here, we will use machine learning to detect such anomalies within a network of sea-level observations in the North Sea.
Diego Bruciaferri, Marina Tonani, Isabella Ascione, Fahad Al Senafi, Enda O'Dea, Helene T. Hewitt, and Andrew Saulter
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8705–8730, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8705-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8705-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
More accurate predictions of the Gulf's ocean dynamics are needed. We investigate the impact on the predictive skills of a numerical shelf sea model of the Gulf after changing a few key aspects. Increasing the lateral and vertical resolution and optimising the vertical coordinate system to best represent the leading physical processes at stake significantly improve the accuracy of the simulated dynamics. Additional work may be needed to get real benefit from using a more realistic bathymetry.
Juan Manuel Castillo, Huw W. Lewis, Akhilesh Mishra, Ashis Mitra, Jeff Polton, Ashley Brereton, Andrew Saulter, Alex Arnold, Segolene Berthou, Douglas Clark, Julia Crook, Ananda Das, John Edwards, Xiangbo Feng, Ankur Gupta, Sudheer Joseph, Nicholas Klingaman, Imranali Momin, Christine Pequignet, Claudio Sanchez, Jennifer Saxby, and Maria Valdivieso da Costa
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4193–4223, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4193-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4193-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A new environmental modelling system has been developed to represent the effect of feedbacks between atmosphere, land, and ocean in the Indian region. Different approaches to simulating tropical cyclones Titli and Fani are demonstrated. It is shown that results are sensitive to the way in which the ocean response to cyclone evolution is captured in the system. Notably, we show how a more rigorous formulation for the near-surface energy budget can be included when air–sea coupling is included.
Wei Chen, Joanna Staneva, Sebastian Grayek, Johannes Schulz-Stellenfleth, and Jens Greinert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1683–1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1683-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1683-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study links the occurrence and persistence of density stratification in the southern North Sea to the increased number of extreme marine heat waves. The study further identified the role of the cold spells at the early stage of a year to the intensity of thermal stratification in summer. In a broader context, the research will have fundamental significance for further discussion of the secondary effects of heat wave events, such as in ecosystems, fisheries, and sediment dynamics.
Robert R. King and Matthew J. Martin
Ocean Sci., 17, 1791–1813, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1791-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1791-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The SWOT satellite will provide a step change in our ability to measure the sea surface height over large areas, and so improve operational ocean forecasts, but will be affected by large correlated errors. We found that while SWOT observations without these errors significantly improved our system, including correlated errors degraded most variables. To realise the full benefits offered by the SWOT mission, we must develop methods to account for correlated errors in ocean forecasting systems.
Julia Rulent, Lucy M. Bricheno, J. A. Mattias Green, Ivan D. Haigh, and Huw Lewis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3339–3351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3339-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3339-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
High coastal total water levels (TWLs) can lead to flooding and hazardous conditions for coastal communities and environment. In this research we are using numerical models to study the interactions between the three main components of the TWL (waves, tides, and surges) on UK and Irish coasts during winter 2013/14. The main finding of this research is that extreme waves and surges can indeed happen together, even at high tide, but they often occurred simultaneously 2–3 h before high tide.
Marion Mittermaier, Rachel North, Jan Maksymczuk, Christine Pequignet, and David Ford
Ocean Sci., 17, 1527–1543, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1527-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1527-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Regions of enhanced chlorophyll-a concentrations can be identified by applying a threshold to the concentration value to a forecast and observed field (or analysis). These regions can then be treated and analysed as features using diagnostic techniques to consider of the evolution of the chlorophyll-a blooms in space and time. This allows us to understand whether the biogeochemistry in the model has any skill in predicting these blooms, their location, intensity, onset, duration and demise.
Jennifer Saxby, Julia Crook, Simon Peatman, Cathryn Birch, Juliane Schwendike, Maria Valdivieso da Costa, Juan Manuel Castillo Sanchez, Chris Holloway, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Ashis Mitra, and Huw Lewis
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-46, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-46, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the ability of the new Met Office IND1 numerical model to simulate tropical cyclones and their associated hazards, such as high winds and heavy rainfall. The new system consists of both atmospheric and oceanic models coupled together, allowing us to explore the sensitivity of cyclones to important air–sea feedbacks. We find that the model can accurately simulate tropical cyclone position, structure, and intensity, which are crucial for predicting and mitigating hazards.
Simon J. Dadson, Eleanor Blyth, Douglas Clark, Helen Davies, Richard Ellis, Huw Lewis, Toby Marthews, and Ponnambalan Rameshwaran
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-60, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-60, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Flood prediction helps national and regional planning and real-time flood response. In this study we apply and test a new way to make wide area predictions of flooding which can be combined with weather forecasting and climate models to give faster predictions of flooded areas. By simplifying the detailed floodplain topography we can keep track of the fraction of land flooded for hazard mapping purposes. When tested this approach accurately reproduces benchmark datasets for England.
Svetlana Jevrejeva, Lucy Bricheno, Jennifer Brown, David Byrne, Michela De Dominicis, Andy Matthews, Stefanie Rynders, Hindumathi Palanisamy, and Judith Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2609–2626, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2609-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2609-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the role of waves, storm surges and sea level rise for the Caribbean region with a focus on the eastern Caribbean islands. We simulate past extreme events, suggesting a storm surge might reach 1.5 m and coastal wave heights up to 12 m offshore and up to 5 m near the coast of St Vincent. We provide sea level projections of up to 2.2 m by 2100. Our work provides quantitative evidence for policy-makers, scientists and local communities to actively protect against climate change.
Marco Cucchi, Graham P. Weedon, Alessandro Amici, Nicolas Bellouin, Stefan Lange, Hannes Müller Schmied, Hans Hersbach, and Carlo Buontempo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2097–2120, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2097-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2097-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
WFDE5 is a novel meteorological forcing dataset for running land surface and global hydrological models. It has been generated using the WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to surface meteorological variables from the ERA5 reanalysis. It is publicly available, along with its source code, through the C3S Climate Data Store at ECMWF. Results of the evaluations described in the paper highlight the benefits of using WFDE5 compared to both ERA5 and its predecessor WFDEI.
Ric Crocker, Jan Maksymczuk, Marion Mittermaier, Marina Tonani, and Christine Pequignet
Ocean Sci., 16, 831–845, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-831-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-831-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We assessed the potential benefit of a new verification metric, developed by the atmospheric community, to assess high-resolution ocean models against coarser-resolution configurations. Typical verification metrics often do not show any benefit when high-resolution models are compared to lower-resolution configurations. The new metric showed improvements in higher-resolution models away from the grid scale. The technique can be applied to both deterministic and ensemble forecasts.
Christopher P. O. Reyer, Ramiro Silveyra Gonzalez, Klara Dolos, Florian Hartig, Ylva Hauf, Matthias Noack, Petra Lasch-Born, Thomas Rötzer, Hans Pretzsch, Henning Meesenburg, Stefan Fleck, Markus Wagner, Andreas Bolte, Tanja G. M. Sanders, Pasi Kolari, Annikki Mäkelä, Timo Vesala, Ivan Mammarella, Jukka Pumpanen, Alessio Collalti, Carlo Trotta, Giorgio Matteucci, Ettore D'Andrea, Lenka Foltýnová, Jan Krejza, Andreas Ibrom, Kim Pilegaard, Denis Loustau, Jean-Marc Bonnefond, Paul Berbigier, Delphine Picart, Sébastien Lafont, Michael Dietze, David Cameron, Massimo Vieno, Hanqin Tian, Alicia Palacios-Orueta, Victor Cicuendez, Laura Recuero, Klaus Wiese, Matthias Büchner, Stefan Lange, Jan Volkholz, Hyungjun Kim, Joanna A. Horemans, Friedrich Bohn, Jörg Steinkamp, Alexander Chikalanov, Graham P. Weedon, Justin Sheffield, Flurin Babst, Iliusi Vega del Valle, Felicitas Suckow, Simon Martel, Mats Mahnken, Martin Gutsch, and Katja Frieler
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1295–1320, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1295-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1295-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Process-based vegetation models are widely used to predict local and global ecosystem dynamics and climate change impacts. Due to their complexity, they require careful parameterization and evaluation to ensure that projections are accurate and reliable. The PROFOUND Database provides a wide range of empirical data to calibrate and evaluate vegetation models that simulate climate impacts at the forest stand scale to support systematic model intercomparisons and model development in Europe.
Marina Tonani, Peter Sykes, Robert R. King, Niall McConnell, Anne-Christine Péquignet, Enda O'Dea, Jennifer A. Graham, Jeff Polton, and John Siddorn
Ocean Sci., 15, 1133–1158, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1133-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1133-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A new high-resolution ocean model at 1.5 km has replaced the 7 km system for delivering short-term forecasts of the North-West European Shelf seas. The products (temperature, salinity, currents, and sea surface height) are available on the Copernicus Marine Service catalogue. This study focuses on the high-resolution impact on the quality of the products delivered to the users. Results show that the high-resolution model is better at resolving the variability of the physical variables.
Johannes Pein, Annika Eisele, Richard Hofmeister, Tina Sanders, Ute Daewel, Emil V. Stanev, Justus van Beusekom, Joanna Staneva, and Corinna Schrum
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-265, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-265, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
The Elbe estuary is subject to vigorous tidal forcing from the sea side and considerable biological inputs from the land side. Our 3D numerical coupled physical-biogeochemical integrates these forcing signals and provides highly realistic hindcasts of the associated dynamics. Model simulations show that the freshwater part of Elbe estuary is inhabited by plankton. According to simulations these organism play a key role in converting organic inputs into nitrate, the major inorganic nutrient.
Huw W. Lewis, John Siddorn, Juan Manuel Castillo Sanchez, Jon Petch, John M. Edwards, and Tim Smyth
Ocean Sci., 15, 761–778, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-761-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-761-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Oceans are modified at the surface by winds and by the exchange of heat with the atmosphere. The effect of changing atmospheric information that is available to drive an ocean model of north-west Europe, which can simulate small-scale details of the ocean state, is tested. We show that simulated temperatures agree better with observations located near the coast around the south-west UK when using data from a high-resolution atmospheric model, and when atmosphere and ocean feedbacks are included.
Huw W. Lewis, Juan Manuel Castillo Sanchez, Alex Arnold, Joachim Fallmann, Andrew Saulter, Jennifer Graham, Mike Bush, John Siddorn, Tamzin Palmer, Adrian Lock, John Edwards, Lucy Bricheno, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, and James Clark
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2357–2400, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2357-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2357-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In the real world the atmosphere, oceans and land surface are closely interconnected, and yet the prediction systems used for weather and ocean forecasting tend to treat them in isolation. This paper describes the third version of a regional modelling system which aims to represent the feedback processes between sky, sea and land. The main innovation introduced in this version enables waves to affect the underlying ocean. Coupled results from four different month-long simulations are analysed.
Johannes Schulz-Stellenfleth and Joanna Staneva
Ocean Sci., 15, 249–268, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-249-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-249-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Errors of observations and numerical model data are analysed with a focus on heterogeneous coastal areas. An extension of the triple collocation method is proposed, which takes into account gradients in the collocation of datasets separated by distances which may not be acceptable for a nearest-neigbour approximation, but still be feasible for linear or higher order interpolations. The technique is applied to wave height data from in situ stations, models, and the Sentinel-3A altimeter.
Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, Eleanor M. Blyth, and Graham P. Weedon
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 765–784, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-765-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-765-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Land–surface interactions with the atmosphere are key for weather and climate modelling studies, both in research and in the operational systems that provide scientific tools for decision makers. Regional assessments will be influenced by the characteristics of the land. We improved the representation of river flows in Great Britain by including a dependency on the terrain slope. This development will be reflected not only in river flows, but in the whole water cycle represented by the model.
Hylke E. Beck, Ming Pan, Tirthankar Roy, Graham P. Weedon, Florian Pappenberger, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, George J. Huffman, Robert F. Adler, and Eric F. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 207–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-207-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-207-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted a comprehensive evaluation of 26 precipitation datasets for the US using the Stage-IV gauge-radar dataset as a reference. The best overall performance was obtained by MSWEP V2.2, underscoring the importance of applying daily gauge corrections and accounting for reporting times. Our findings can be used as a guide to choose the most suitable precipitation dataset for a particular application.
Anne Wiese, Joanna Staneva, Johannes Schulz-Stellenfleth, Arno Behrens, Luciana Fenoglio-Marc, and Jean-Raymond Bidlot
Ocean Sci., 14, 1503–1521, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1503-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1503-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The increase of data quality of wind and wave measurements provided by the new Sentinel-3A satellite in coastal areas is demonstrated compared to measurements of older satellites with in situ data and spectral wave model simulations. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the wave model to wind forcing is evaluated using data with different temporal and spatial resolution, where an hourly temporal resolution is necessary to represent the peak of extreme events better.
Joanne Williams, Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea, Andrew Saulter, and Kevin J. Horsburgh
Ocean Sci., 14, 1057–1068, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1057-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1057-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Tide predictions based on tide-gauge observations are not just astronomical tides; they also contain periodic sea level changes due to the weather. Forecasts of total water level during storm surges add the immediate effects of the weather to the astronomical tide prediction and thus risk double-counting these effects. We use a global model to see how much double-counting may affect these forecasts and also how much of the Highest Astronomical Tide may be due to recurrent weather patterns.
Emiliano Gelati, Bertrand Decharme, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Marie Minvielle, Jan Polcher, David Fairbairn, and Graham P. Weedon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2091–2115, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2091-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2091-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We compared land surface model simulations forced by several meteorological datasets with observations over the Euro-Mediterranean area, for the 1979–2012 period. Precipitation was the most uncertain forcing variable. The impacts of forcing uncertainty were larger on the mean and standard deviation rather than the timing, shape and inter-annual variability of simulated discharge. Simulated leaf area index and surface soil moisture were relatively insensitive to these uncertainties.
Jennifer A. Graham, Enda O'Dea, Jason Holt, Jeff Polton, Helene T. Hewitt, Rachel Furner, Karen Guihou, Ashley Brereton, Alex Arnold, Sarah Wakelin, Juan Manuel Castillo Sanchez, and C. Gabriela Mayorga Adame
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 681–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-681-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-681-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the next-generation ocean forecast model for the European NW shelf, AMM15 (Atlantic Margin Model, 1.5 km resolution). The current forecast system has a resolution of 7 km. While this is sufficient to represent large-scale circulation, many dynamical features (such as eddies, frontal jets, and internal tides) can only begin to be resolved at 0–1 km resolution. Here we introduce AMM15 and demonstrate its ability to represent the mean state and variability of the region.
Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, Eleanor M. Blyth, and Graham P. Weedon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-750, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-750, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Land surface interactions with the atmosphere are key for weather and climate modelling studies, both in research and in the operational systems that provide scientific tools for decision makers. Regional assessments will be influenced by the characteristics of the land. We improved the representation of Great Britain river flows by including a dependency on terrain slope. This development will be reflected not only in river flows, but in the whole water cycle represented by the model/system.
Huw W. Lewis, Juan Manuel Castillo Sanchez, Jennifer Graham, Andrew Saulter, Jorge Bornemann, Alex Arnold, Joachim Fallmann, Chris Harris, David Pearson, Steven Ramsdale, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, Lucy Bricheno, Eleanor Blyth, Victoria A. Bell, Helen Davies, Toby R. Marthews, Clare O'Neill, Heather Rumbold, Enda O'Dea, Ashley Brereton, Karen Guihou, Adrian Hines, Momme Butenschon, Simon J. Dadson, Tamzin Palmer, Jason Holt, Nick Reynard, Martin Best, John Edwards, and John Siddorn
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1–42, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In the real world the atmosphere, oceans and land surface are closely interconnected, and yet prediction systems tend to treat them in isolation. Those feedbacks are often illustrated in natural hazards, such as when strong winds lead to large waves and coastal damage, or when prolonged rainfall leads to saturated ground and high flowing rivers. For the first time, we have attempted to represent some of the feedbacks between sky, sea and land within a high-resolution forecast system for the UK.
Hylke E. Beck, Noemi Vergopolan, Ming Pan, Vincenzo Levizzani, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Graham P. Weedon, Luca Brocca, Florian Pappenberger, George J. Huffman, and Eric F. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6201–6217, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6201-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6201-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study represents the most comprehensive global-scale precipitation dataset evaluation to date. We evaluated 13 uncorrected precipitation datasets using precipitation observations from 76 086 gauges, and 9 gauge-corrected ones using hydrological modeling for 9053 catchments. Our results highlight large differences in estimation accuracy, and hence, the importance of precipitation dataset selection in both research and operational applications.
Enda O'Dea, Rachel Furner, Sarah Wakelin, John Siddorn, James While, Peter Sykes, Robert King, Jason Holt, and Helene Hewitt
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2947–2969, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2947-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2947-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
An update to an ocean modelling configuration for the European North West Shelf is described. It is assessed against observations and climatologies for 1981–2012. Sensitivities in the model configuration updates are assessed to understand changes in the model system. The model improves upon an existing model of the region, although there remain some areas with significant biases. The paper highlights the dependence upon the quality of the river inputs.
Jaap Schellekens, Emanuel Dutra, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Albert van Dijk, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Marie Minvielle, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Bertrand Decharme, Stephanie Eisner, Gabriel Fink, Martina Flörke, Stefanie Peßenteiner, Rens van Beek, Jan Polcher, Hylke Beck, René Orth, Ben Calton, Sophia Burke, Wouter Dorigo, and Graham P. Weedon
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 389–413, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-389-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-389-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The dataset combines the results of 10 global models that describe the global continental water cycle. The data can be used as input for water resources studies, flood frequency studies etc. at different scales from continental to medium-scale catchments. We compared the results with earth observation data and conclude that most uncertainties are found in snow-dominated regions and tropical rainforest and monsoon regions.
Burkard Baschek, Friedhelm Schroeder, Holger Brix, Rolf Riethmüller, Thomas H. Badewien, Gisbert Breitbach, Bernd Brügge, Franciscus Colijn, Roland Doerffer, Christiane Eschenbach, Jana Friedrich, Philipp Fischer, Stefan Garthe, Jochen Horstmann, Hajo Krasemann, Katja Metfies, Lucas Merckelbach, Nino Ohle, Wilhelm Petersen, Daniel Pröfrock, Rüdiger Röttgers, Michael Schlüter, Jan Schulz, Johannes Schulz-Stellenfleth, Emil Stanev, Joanna Staneva, Christian Winter, Kai Wirtz, Jochen Wollschläger, Oliver Zielinski, and Friedwart Ziemer
Ocean Sci., 13, 379–410, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-379-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-379-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Coastal Observing System for Northern and Arctic Seas (COSYNA) was established in order to better understand the complex interdisciplinary processes of northern seas and the Arctic coasts in a changing environment. Particular focus is given to the heavily used German Bight in the North Sea. The automated observing and modelling system is designed to monitor real-time conditions, to provide short-term forecasts and data products, and to assess the impact of anthropogenically induced change.
Giovanni Coppini, Palmalisa Marra, Rita Lecci, Nadia Pinardi, Sergio Cretì, Mario Scalas, Luca Tedesco, Alessandro D'Anca, Leopoldo Fazioli, Antonio Olita, Giuseppe Turrisi, Cosimo Palazzo, Giovanni Aloisio, Sandro Fiore, Antonio Bonaduce, Yogesh Vittal Kumkar, Stefania Angela Ciliberti, Ivan Federico, Gianandrea Mannarini, Paola Agostini, Roberto Bonarelli, Sara Martinelli, Giorgia Verri, Letizia Lusito, Davide Rollo, Arturo Cavallo, Antonio Tumolo, Tony Monacizzo, Marco Spagnulo, Rorberto Sorgente, Andrea Cucco, Giovanni Quattrocchi, Marina Tonani, Massimiliano Drudi, Paola Nassisi, Laura Conte, Laura Panzera, Antonio Navarra, and Giancarlo Negro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 533–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-533-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-533-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
SeaConditions aims to support the users by providing the environmental information in due time and with adequate accuracy in the marine and coastal environments, enforcing users' sea situational awareness. SeaConditions consists of a web and mobile application for the provision of meteorological and oceanographic observation and forecasting products. The iOS/Android apps were downloaded by more than 105 000 users and more than 100 000 users have visited the web version (www.sea-conditions.com).
Kathrin Wahle, Joanna Staneva, Wolfgang Koch, Luciana Fenoglio-Marc, Ha T. M. Ho-Hagemann, and Emil V. Stanev
Ocean Sci., 13, 289–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-289-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-289-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Reduction of wave forecasting errors is a challenge, especially in dynamically complicated coastal ocean areas such as the southern part of the North Sea area. We study the effects of coupling between an atmospheric and two nested-grid wind wave models. Comparisons with data from in situ and satellite altimeter observations indicate that two-way coupling improves the simulation of wind and wave parameters of the model and justifies its implementation for both operational and climate simulation.
Jason Holt, Patrick Hyder, Mike Ashworth, James Harle, Helene T. Hewitt, Hedong Liu, Adrian L. New, Stephen Pickles, Andrew Porter, Ekaterina Popova, J. Icarus Allen, John Siddorn, and Richard Wood
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 499–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-499-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-499-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Accurately representing coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models is one of the grand challenges of Earth system science. Here, we explore what the options are for improving this by exploring what the important physical processes are that need to be represented. We use a simple scale analysis to investigate how large the resulting models would need to be. We then compare this with how computer power is increasing to provide estimates of when this might be feasible in the future.
Joanna Staneva, Kathrin Wahle, Wolfgang Koch, Arno Behrens, Luciana Fenoglio-Marc, and Emil V. Stanev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2373–2389, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2373-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2373-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study addresses the impact of wind, waves, tidal forcing and baroclinicity on the sea level of the German Bight during extreme storm events. The role of wave-induced processes, tides and baroclinicity is quantified, and the results are compared with in situ measurements and satellite data. Considering a wave-dependent approach and baroclinicity, the surge is significantly enhanced in the coastal areas and the model results are closer to observations, especially during the extreme storm.
Emil V. Stanev, Johannes Schulz-Stellenfleth, Joanna Staneva, Sebastian Grayek, Sebastian Grashorn, Arno Behrens, Wolfgang Koch, and Johannes Pein
Ocean Sci., 12, 1105–1136, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-1105-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-1105-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes coastal ocean forecasting practices exemplified for the North Sea and Baltic Sea. It identifies new challenges, most of which are associated with the nonlinear behavior of coastal oceans. It describes the assimilation of remote sensing, in situ and HF radar data, prediction of wind waves and storm surges, as well as applications to search and rescue operations. Seamless applications to coastal and estuarine modeling are also presented.
Bart van den Hurk, Hyungjun Kim, Gerhard Krinner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Chris Derksen, Taikan Oki, Hervé Douville, Jeanne Colin, Agnès Ducharne, Frederique Cheruy, Nicholas Viovy, Michael J. Puma, Yoshihide Wada, Weiping Li, Binghao Jia, Andrea Alessandri, Dave M. Lawrence, Graham P. Weedon, Richard Ellis, Stefan Hagemann, Jiafu Mao, Mark G. Flanner, Matteo Zampieri, Stefano Materia, Rachel M. Law, and Justin Sheffield
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2809–2832, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2809-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2809-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This manuscript describes the setup of the CMIP6 project Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project (LS3MIP).
Jun She, Icarus Allen, Erik Buch, Alessandro Crise, Johnny A. Johannessen, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Urmas Lips, Glenn Nolan, Nadia Pinardi, Jan H. Reißmann, John Siddorn, Emil Stanev, and Henning Wehde
Ocean Sci., 12, 953–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-953-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-953-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This white paper addresses key scientific challenges and research priorities for the development of operational oceanography in Europe for the next 5–10 years. Knowledge gaps and deficiencies are identified in relation to common scientific challenges in four EuroGOOS knowledge areas: European ocean observations, modelling and forecasting technology, coastal operational oceanography, and operational ecology.
Joanna Staneva, Kathrin Wahle, Heinz Günther, and Emil Stanev
Ocean Sci., 12, 797–806, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-797-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-797-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study addresses the impact of coupling between wind wave and circulation models on the quality of coastal ocean predicting systems. This topic reflects the increased interest in operational oceanography to reduce prediction errors of state estimates at coastal scales. The improved skill of the coupled forecasts compared to the non-coupled ones, in particular during extreme events, justifies the further enhancements of coastal operational systems by including wind wave models.
Heather Cannaby, Matthew D. Palmer, Tom Howard, Lucy Bricheno, Daley Calvert, Justin Krijnen, Richard Wood, Jonathan Tinker, Chris Bunney, James Harle, Andrew Saulter, Clare O'Neill, Clare Bellingham, and Jason Lowe
Ocean Sci., 12, 613–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-613-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-613-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Singapore government commissioned a modelling study of regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events. We find that changes to long-term mean sea level constitute the dominant signal of change to the projected inundation risk for Singapore during the 21st century, these being 0.52 m(0.74 m) under the RCP 4.5(8.5) scenario.
J. R. Siddorn, S. A. Good, C. M. Harris, H. W. Lewis, J. Maksymczuk, M. J. Martin, and A. Saulter
Ocean Sci., 12, 217–231, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-217-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-217-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Met Office provides a range of services in the marine environment. To support these services, and to ensure they evolve to meet the demands of users and are based on the best available science, a number of scientific challenges need to be addressed. The paper summarises the key challenges, and highlights some priorities for the ocean monitoring and forecasting research group at the Met Office.
M. Haller, F. Janssen, J. Siddorn, W. Petersen, and S. Dick
Ocean Sci., 11, 879–896, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-879-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-879-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Automated measurement systems called FerryBox are installed on cargo ships in the North Sea. Operational model forecasts have been compared to FerryBox data of water temperature and salinity. We wanted to know how well the simulations agree with the observations. We found out that water temperature simulation gives satisfying results, while salinity simulation still could be improved. It turned out that assimilation of observational data into operational models gives strong benefits.
I. D. Culverwell, H. W. Lewis, D. Offiler, C. Marquardt, and C. P. Burrows
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 1887–1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-1887-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-1887-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the Radio Occultation Processing Package, ROPP, which is a suite of freely available programs provided by EUMETSAT for the processing of radio occultation data. Its capabilities are briefly reviewed, and examples of its use are given. Some current and prospective uses of ROPP are listed.
A. Megann, D. Storkey, Y. Aksenov, S. Alderson, D. Calvert, T. Graham, P. Hyder, J. Siddorn, and B. Sinha
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1069–1092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1069-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1069-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Approach: Numerical Models | Depth range: Shelf-sea depth | Geographical range: Shelf Seas | Phenomena: Temperature, Salinity and Density Fields
Investigation of model capability in capturing vertical hydrodynamic coastal processes: a case study in the north Adriatic Sea
W. J. McKiver, G. Sannino, F. Braga, and D. Bellafiore
Ocean Sci., 12, 51–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-51-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-51-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
First modeling work comparing SHYFEM and MITgcm performance in the north Adriatic Sea; the treatment of heat/mass fluxes at the surface affects the models skill to reproduce coastal processes; high resolution is needed close to the coast, while lower resolution in the offshore is adequate to capture the dense water event; correct river discharges and temperature are vital for the reproduction of estuarine dynamics; non-hydrostatic processes do not influence the dense water formation.
Cited articles
Alari, V., Staneva, J., Breivik, Ø., Bidlot, J.-R., Mogensen, K., and
Janssen, P.: Surface wave effects on water temperature in the Baltic Sea:
simulations with the coupled NEMO-WAM model, Ocean Dynam., 66,
917–930, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-016-0963-x,
2016.
Benetazzo, A., Bergamasco, A., Bonaldo, D., Falcieri, F. M., Sclavo, M.,
Langone, L., and Carniel, S.: Response of the Adriatic Sea to an intense cold
air outbreak: Dense water dynamics and wave-induced transport, Prog.
Oceanogr., 128, 115–138, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2014.08.015, 2014.
Berg, P. and Weismann Poulsen, J.: Implementation details for HBM, DMI
Technical Report No. 12-11, available at:
http://beta.dmi.dk/fileadmin/Rapporter/TR/tr12-11.pdf (last access: 3 June 2019), 2012.
Bertin, X., Kai Li, K., Aron Roland, A., and Jean-Raymond Bidlot, J.-R.: The
contribution of short-waves in storm surges: Two case studies in the Bay of
Biscay, Cont. Shelf Res., 96, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2015.01.005, 2015.
Blockley, E. J., Martin, M. J., McLaren, A. J., Ryan, A. G., Waters, J., Lea,
D. J., Mirouze, I., Peterson, K. A., Sellar, A., and Storkey, D.: Recent
development of the met-office operational ocean forecasting system: an
overview and assessment of the new global FOAM forecasts, Geosci. Model Dev.,
7, 2613–2638, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2613-2014, 2014.
Bolaños, R., Brown, J. M., and Souza, A. J.: Wave–current interactions
in a tide dominated estuary, Cont. Shelf Res., 87, 109–123,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2014.05.009, 2014.
Breivik, Ø., Mogensen, K., Bidlot, J.-R., Balmaseda, M. A., and Janssen,
P. A. E. M.: Surface wave effects in the NEMO ocean model: Forced and coupled
experiments, J. Geophys. Res.-Ocean, 120, 2973–2992,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC010565, 2015.
Bricheno, L. M., Soret, A., Wolf, J., Jorba, O., and Baldasano, J. M.: Effect
of High-Resolution Meteorological Forcing on Nearshore Wave and Current Model
Performance, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 30, 1021–1037,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-12-00087.1, 2013.
Brown, J. M. and Wolf, J.: Coupled wave and surge modelling for the eastern
Irish Sea and implications for model wind-stress, Cont. Shelf Res., 29,
1329–1342, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2009.03.004, 2009.
Brown, J. M., Bolaños, R., and Wolf, J.: Impact assessment of advanced
coupling features in a tide–surge–wave model, POLCOMS-WAM, in a shallow
water application, J. Mar. Syst., 87, 13–24,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2011.02.006, 2011.
Bruneau, N. and Toumi, R.: A fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model of the
Caspian Sea, Ocean Model., 107, 97–111, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2016.10.006,
2016.
Carniel, S., Benetazzo, A., Bonaldo, D., Falcieri, F. M., Miglietta, M. M.,
Ricchi, A., and Sclavo, M.: Scratching beneath the surface while coupling
atmosphere, ocean and waves: Analysis of a dense water formation event, Ocean
Model., 101, 101–112, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2016.03.007, 2016.
Cavaleri, L., Fox-Kemper, B., and Hemer, M.: Wind Waves in the Coupled
Climate System, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 1651–1661,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00170.1, 2012.
Cavaleri, L., Abdalla, S., Benetazzo, A., Bertotti, L., Bidlot, J.-R.,
Breivik, Ø., Carniel, S., Jensen, R. E., Portilla-Yandun, J., Rogers, W.
E., Roland, A., Sanchez-Arcilla, A., Smith, J. M., Staneva, J., Toledo, Y.,
van Vledder, G. Ph., and van der Westhuysen, A. J.: Wave modelling in coastal
and inner seas, Prog. Oceanogr., 167, 164–233, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2018.03.010, 2018.
Clementi, E., Oddo, P., Drudi, M., Pinardi, N., Korres, G., and Grandi, A.:
Coupling hydrodynamic and wave models: first step and sensitivity experiments
in the Mediterranean Sea, Ocean Dynam., 67, 1293,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-017-1087-7, 2017.
Consoli, S., Recupero, D. R., and Zavarella, V.: A survey on tidal analysis
and forecasting methods for tsunami detection, Science of Tsunami Hazards,
33, 1–54, 2014.
Craig, P. D. and Banner, M. L.: Modeling wave-enhanced turbulence in the ocean
surface layer, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 24, 2546–2559, 1994.
Graham, J. A., O'Dea, E., Holt, J., Polton, J., Hewitt, H. T., Furner, R.,
Guihou, K., Brereton, A., Arnold, A., Wakelin, S., Castillo Sanchez, J. M.,
and Mayorga Adame, C. G.: AMM15: a new high-resolution NEMO configuration for
operational simulation of the European north-west shelf, Geosci. Model Dev.,
11, 681–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-681-2018, 2018a.
Graham, J. A., Rosser, J. P., O'Dea, E., and Hewitt, H. T.: Resolving shelf
break exchange around the European northwest shelf, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
45, 12386–12395, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079399, 2018b.
Hashemi, M. R. and Lewis, M.: Wave-Tide Interactions in Ocean Renewable
Energy, in: Marine Renewable Energy, edited by: Yang, Z. and Copping, A.,
Springer, Cham, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-53536-4_6, 2017.
Hashemi, M. R., Neill, S. P., and Davies, A. G.: A coupled tide-wave model
for the NW European shelf seas, Geophys. Astro. Fluid, 109, 234–253,
https://doi.org/10.1080/03091929.2014.944909, 2015.
Hasselmann, K.: Wave-driven inertial oscillations, Geophys. Fluid Dynam., 1,
463–502, https://doi.org/10.1080/03091927009365783, 1970.
Holt, J. T. and James, I. D.: An s coordinate density evolving model of the northwest European continental shelf: 1. Model description and density structure, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 14015–14034, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JC000304, 2001.
Huthnance, J. M., Holt, J. T., and Wakelin, S. L.: Deep ocean exchange with
west-European shelf seas, Ocean Sci., 5, 621–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-5-621-2009,
2009.
Janssen, P.: The Interaction of Ocean Waves and Wind, Cambridge Univ. Press,
Reading, UK, 300 pp., 2004.
Janssen, P. A. E. M. and Bidlot, J.-R.: Progress in Operational Wave
Forecasting, Procedia IUTAM, 26, 14–29, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.piutam.2018.03.003,
2018.
Kara, A. B., Rochford, P. A., and Hurlburt, H. E.: An optimal definition for
ocean mixed layer depth, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 16803–16821, 2000.
King, R. R., While, J., Martin, M. J., Lea, D.J., Lemieux-Dudon, B., Waters,
J., and O'Dea, E.: Improving the initialisation of the Met Office operational
shelf-seas model, Ocean Model., 130, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2018.07.004,
2018.
Laloyaux, P., de Boisseson, E., Balmaseda, M., Bidlot, J.-R., Broennimann,
S., Buizza, R., Dalhgren, P., Dee, D., Haimberger, L., Hersbach, H., Kosaka,
Y., Martin, M., Poli, P., Rayner, N., Rustemeier, E., and Schepers, D.:
CERA-20C: A coupled reanalysis of the twentieth century, J. Adv. Model. Earth
Syst., 10, 1172–1195, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001273, 2018.
Large, W. and Yeager, S.: Diurnal to decadal global forcing for ocean and
seaice models: the data sets and climatologies, Technical Report
TN-460+STR, NCAR, 105 pp., 2004.
Law Chune, S. and Aouf, L.: Wave effects in global ocean modeling:
parametrizations vs. forcing from a wave model, Ocean Dynam., 68, 1739–1758, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-018-1220-2, 2018.
Lewis, H. W., Castillo Sanchez, J. M., Graham, J., Saulter, A., Bornemann,
J., Arnold, A., Fallmann, J., Harris, C., Pearson, D., Ramsdale, S.,
Martínez-de la Torre, A., Bricheno, L., Blyth, E., Bell, V., Davies, H.,
Marthews, T., O'Neill, C., Rumbold, H., O'Dea, E., Brereton, A., Guihou, K.,
Hines, A., Butenschon, M., Dadson, S. J., Palmer, T., Holt, J., Reynard, N.,
Best, M., Edwards, J., and Siddorn, J.: The UKC2 regional coupled
environmental prediction system, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1–42,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1-2018, 2018a.
Lewis, H. W., Castillo Sanchez, J. M., Arnold, A., Fallmann, J., Saulter, A.,
Graham, J., Bush, M., Siddorn, J., Palmer, T., Lock, A., Edwards, J.,
Bricheno, L., Martínez de la Torre, A., and Clark, J.: The UKC3 regional
coupled environmental prediction system, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss.,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-245, in review, 2018b.
Lewis, M. J., Palmer, T., Hashemi, R., Robins, P., Saulter, A., Brown, J.,
Lewis, H., and Neill, S.: Wave-tide interaction modulates nearshore wave
height, Ocean Dynam., 69, 367–384, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-018-01245-z, 2019.
Li, J.-G.: Propagation of ocean surface waves on a spherical multiple-cell
grid, J. Comput. Phys., 231, 8262–8277, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcp.2012.08.007, 2012.
Madec, G. and the NEMO team: NEMO reference manual 3_6_STABLE : NEMO ocean
engine, Note du Pôle de modélisation, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace
(IPSL), France, No. 27 ISSN, No. 1288-1619, 2016.
O'Neill, C. and Saulter, A.: NEMO-Surge forecast performance during 2016–17
winter trial, Met Office Forecasting Research Technical Report No. 622,
available at:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/library/weather-science-technical-reports/frtr_622_2017p.pdf (last access: 3 June 2019), 2017.
Palmer, T. and Saulter, A.: Evaluating the effects of ocean current fields on
a UK regional wave model, Met Office Forecasting Research Technical Report
No. 612, available at:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/j/i/frtr_612_2016p.pdf (last access: 3 June 2019), 2016.
Palmer, M., Williams, C., and Horsburgh, K.: Synoptic multi-variable
multi-glider study, AtlantOS Deliverable, D4.3, AtlantOS, 25 pp.,
https://doi.org/10.3289/atlantos_d4.3, 2018.
Press, W. H., Teukolsky, S. A., Vetterling, W. T., and Flannery, B. P. L:
Numerical Recipes in Fortran, The Art of Scientific Computing, Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, 963 pp., 1992.
Pugh D. T.: Tides, Surges and Mean Sea-Level, John Wiley & Sons, New
York, 472 pp., 1987.
Pullen, J., Allard, R., Seo, H., Miller, A. J., Chen, S., Pezzi, L. P.,
Smith, T., Chu, P., Alves, J., and Caldeira, R.: Coupled ocean-atmosphere
forecasting at short and medium time scales, J. Mar. Res., 75, 877–921,
https://doi.org/10.1357/002224017823523991, 2017.
Rascle, N., Ardhuin, F., Queffeulou, P., and Croizé-Fillon, D.: A global
wave parameter database for geophysical applications. Part 1:
Wave-current–turbulence interaction parameters for the open ocean based on
traditional parameterizations, Ocean Model., 25, 154–171,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2008.07.006, 2008.
Reza Hashemi, M., Neill, S. P., and Davies, A. G.: A coupled tide-wave model for the NW European shelf seas, Geophys. Astro. Fluid, 109, 234–253, https://doi.org/10.1080/03091929.2014.944909, 2015.
Saulter, A., Bunney, C., Li, J.-G., and Palmer, T.: Process and resolution
impacts on UK coastal wave predictions from operational global-regional wave
models, Proc. 15th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting
& 6th Coastal Hazard Symposium, available at:
http://www.waveworkshop.org/15thWaves/Papers/K1_WHF_SaulterEtAl_UKCoastalWave_20170913.pdf (last access: 3 June 2019), 2017.
Schloen, J., Stanev, E. V., and Grashorn, S.: Wave-current interactions in
the southern North Sea: The impact on salinity, Ocean Model., 111, 19–37,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2017.01.003, 2017.
Soulsby, R. L.: Bed shear-stresses due to combined waves and currents, in:
Advances in Coastal Morphodynamics, edited by: Stive, M. J. F., de Vriend, H.
J., Fredsøe, J., Hamm, L., Soulsby, R. L., Teisson, C., and Winterwerp, J.
C., Delft Hydraulics, the Netherlands, 4-20–4-23, 1995.
Staneva, J., Wahle, K., Koch, W., Behrens, A., Fenoglio-Marc, L., and Stanev,
E. V.: Coastal flooding: impact of waves on storm surge during extremes – a
case study for the German Bight, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16,
2373–2389, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2373-2016, 2016a.
Staneva, J., Wahle, K., Günther, H., and Stanev, E.: Coupling of wave and
circulation models in coastal–ocean predicting systems: a case study for the
German Bight, Ocean Sci., 12, 797–806, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-797-2016, 2016b.
Staneva, J., Alari, V., Breivik, Ø., Bidlot, J-.R., and Mogensen, K.:
Effects of wave-induced forcing on a circulation model of the North Sea,
Ocean Dynam., 67, 81–101,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-016-1009-0, 2017.
Tolman, H. L.: User manual and system documentation of WAVEWATCH
III® version 4.18, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/MMAB
Technical Note 316, 282 pp. + Appendices, 2014.
Tonani, M., Sykes, P., King, R. R., McConnell, N., Pequignet, A.-C., O'Dea,
E., Graham, J. A., Polton, J., and Siddorn, J.: The impact of a new
high-resolution ocean model on the Met Office North-West European Shelf
forecasting system, Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2019-4,
in review, 2019.
Uchiyama, Y., McWilliams, J. C., and Shchepetkin, A. F.: Wave-current
interaction in an oceanic circulation model with a vortex-force formalism:
Application to the surf zone, Ocean Model., 34, 16–35,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2010.04.002
Valcke, S., Craig, T., and Coquart, L.: OASIS3-MCT User Guide, Technical
Report TR/CMGC/15/38, CERFACS, 2015.
van Leeuwen, S., Tett, P., Mills, D., and van der Molen, J.: Stratified and
nonstratified areas in the North Sea: Long-term variability and biological
and policy implications, J. Geophys. Res.-Ocean., 120, 4670–4686,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC010485, 2015.
WAMDI Group: The WAM Model—A Third Generation Ocean Wave Prediction Model, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 18, 1775–-1810, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1988)018<1775:TWMTGO>2.0.CO;2, 1988.
Warner, J. C., Armstrong, B., He, R., and Zambon, J. B.: Development of a
Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system,
Ocean Model., 35, 230–244, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2010.07.010, 2010.
Waters, J., Lea, D. J., Martin, M. J., Mirouze, I., Weaver, A., and While,
J.: Implementing a variational data assimilation system in an operational 1∕4∘ global ocean model, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 141, 333–349,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2388, 2015.
Weaver, A. T., Deltel, C., Machu, E., Ricci, S., and Daget, N.: A
multivariate balance operator for variational ocean data assimilation, Q. J.
R. Meteorol. Soc., 131, 3605–3625, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.05.119, 2005.
Weedon, G. P., Prudhomme, C., Crooks, S., Ellis, R. J., Folwell, S. S., and
Best, M. J.: Evaluating the Performance of Hydrological Models via
Cross-Spectral Analysis: Case Study of the Thames Basin, UK, J.
Hydrometeorol., 16, 214–231, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0021.1, 2015.
Wolf, J.: Coupled wave and surge modelling and implications for coastal
flooding, Adv. Geosci., 17, 19–22, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-17-19-2008, 2008.
Short summary
Forecasts of ocean temperature, salinity, currents, and sea height can be improved by linking state-of-the-art ocean and wave models, so that they can interact to better represent the real world. We test this approach in an ocean model of north-west Europe which can simulate small-scale details of the ocean state. The intention is to implement the system described in this study for operational use so that improved information can be provided to users of ocean forecast data.
Forecasts of ocean temperature, salinity, currents, and sea height can be improved by linking...
