Ocean Science
Ocean Science
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Articles | Volume 21, issue 1
Articles | Volume 21, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-401-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-401-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 21, issue 1
Research article
 | 
12 Feb 2025
Research article |  | 12 Feb 2025

Uncertainties in the finite-time Lyapunov exponent in an ocean ensemble prediction model

Mateusz Matuszak, Johannes Röhrs, Pål Erik Isachsen, and Martina Idžanović

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Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs) describe material transport in ocean flow by describing transport and accumulation regions. We discuss the implications of model flow field uncertainty for finite-time Lyapunov exponents (FTLEs), which under certain conditions approximate LCSs. FTLEs add value to forecasting when they are certain and long-lived. Averaging FTLEs reveals where they are more certain and long-lived, often influenced by bottom topography.
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