Articles | Volume 21, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2505-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2505-2025
Research article
 | 
20 Oct 2025
Research article |  | 20 Oct 2025

Amplified warming and marine heatwaves in the North Sea under a warming climate and their impacts

Bayoumy Mohamed, Alexander Barth, Dimitry Van der Zande, and Aida Alvera-Azcárate

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Cited articles

Alheit, J., Gröger, J., Licandro, P., McQuinn, I. H., Pohlmann, T., and Tsikliras, A. C.: What happened in the mid-1990s? The coupled ocean-atmosphere processes behind climate-induced ecosystem changes in the Northeast Atlantic and the Mediterranean, Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 159, 130–142, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.DSR2.2018.11.011, 2019. 
Alvera-Azcárate, A., Van der Zande, D., Barth, A., Troupin, C., Martin, S., and Beckers, J. M.: Analysis of 23 Years of Daily Cloud-Free Chlorophyll and Suspended Particulate Matter in the Greater North Sea, Front. Mar. Sci., 8, 707632, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.707632, 2021. 
Amorim, F. D. L. L. D., Balkoni, A., Sidorenko, V., and Wiltshire, K. H.: Analyses of sea surface chlorophyll a trends and variability from 1998 to 2020 in the German Bight (North Sea), Ocean Sci., 20, 1247–1265, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1247-2024, 2024 
Atkins, J. R. C., Tinker, J., Graham, J. A., Scaife, A. A., and Halloran, P. R.: Seasonal forecasting of the European North-West shelf seas: limits of winter and summer sea surface temperature predictability, Clim. Dyn., 62, 10113–10130, https://doi.org/10.1007/S00382-024-07439-0, 2024. 
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We quantified the role of climate change and internal variability in marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the North Sea over more than 4 decades (1982–2024). A key finding is the 2013 climate shift, which was associated with increased warming and MHWs. Long-term warming accounted for 80 % of the observed trend in MHW frequency. The most intense MHW event in May 2024 was attributed to an anomalous anticyclonic atmospheric circulation. We also explored the impact of MHWs on chlorophyll concentration.
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