Articles | Volume 21, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2283-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2283-2025
Research article
 | 
07 Oct 2025
Research article |  | 07 Oct 2025

Contribution of meridional overturning circulation and sea ice changes to large-scale temperature asymmetries in CMIP6 overshoot scenarios

Pedro José Roldán-Gómez, Pablo Ortega, and Markus G. Donat

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Cited articles

Baker, J. A., Bell, M. J., Jackson, L. C., Vallis, G. K., Watson, A. J., and Wood, R. A.: Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature, 638, 987–994, 2025. a, b
Bellomo, K., Angeloni, M., Corti, S., and vin Hardenberg, J.: Future climate change shaped by inter-model differences in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation response, Nature Communications, 12, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24015-w, 2021. a
Bochow, N., Poltronieri, A., Robinson, A., Montoya, M., Rypdal, M., and Boers, N.: Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet, Nature, 622, 528–536, 2023. a
Boucher, O., Denvil, S., Levavasseur, G., Cozic, A., Caubel, A., Foujols, M. A., Meurdesoif, Y., Cadule, P., Devilliers, M., Dupont, E., and Lurton, T.: IPSL IPSL-CM6A-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp119, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5261, 2019a. a
Boucher, O., Denvil, S., Levavasseur, G., Cozic, A., Caubel, A., Foujols, M. A., Meurdesoif, Y., Cadule, P., Devilliers, M., Dupont, E., and Lurton, T.: IPSL IPSL-CM6A-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp534-over, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5269, 2019b. a
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Short summary
The overshoot scenarios, in which temperatures exceed the targets of the Paris Agreement and are brought back afterwards with a net-negative emission strategy, are known to activate irreversible processes in the climate system. This work analyses in detail the impact of some of these mechanisms, with a particular focus on those associated with ocean circulation and sea ice changes.
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