Ocean Science
Ocean Science
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Articles | Volume 21, issue 4
Articles | Volume 21, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1813-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1813-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 21, issue 4
Research article
 | 
26 Aug 2025
Research article |  | 26 Aug 2025

Drivers of high-frequency extreme sea levels around northern Europe – synergies between recurrent neural networks and random forest

Céline Heuzé, Linn Carlstedt, Lea Poropat, and Heather Reese

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Ascenso, G., Palcic, G., Scoccimarro, E., and Castelletti, A.: A systematic framework for data augmentation for tropical cyclone intensity estimation using deep learning, Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation, 1, e2024JH000206, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JH000206, 2024. a, b
Ayinde, A., Yu, H., and Wu, K.: Sea level variability and modeling in the Gulf of Guinea using supervised machine learning, Sci. Rep., 13, 21318, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-48624-1, 2023. a
Barzandeh, A., Rus, M., Ličer, M., Maljutenko, I., Elken, J., Lagemaa, P., and Uiboupin, R.: Application of HIDRA2 Deep Learning Model for Sea Level Forecasting Along the Estonian Coast of the Baltic Sea, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3691, 2024. a, b
Bell, B., Hersbach, H., Simmons, A., Berrisford, P., Dahlgren, P., Horányi, A., Muñoz‐Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Radu, R., Schepers, D., and Soci, C.: The ERA5 global reanalysis: Preliminary extension to 1950, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 147, 4186–4227, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4174, 2021. a
Chollet, F. and The Keras Team: Keras, Github [code], https://github.com/fchollet/keras (last access: 11 August 2025), 2015. a
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Extreme sea levels will worsen under climate change. In northern Europe, what drives these extreme events will not change, so determining these drivers is of use for planning coastal defences. Here, using two machine learning methods on hourly tide gauge and weather data at nine locations around the North and Baltic seas, we determine that the drivers of prolonged periods of high sea level are westerly winds, whereas the drivers of the most extreme peaks depend on the coastline geometry.
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Special issue on ocean extremes (55th International Liége...