Ocean Science
Ocean Science
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Articles | Volume 20, issue 2
Articles | Volume 20, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-589-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-589-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 20, issue 2
Research article
 | 
17 Apr 2024
Research article |  | 17 Apr 2024

Comparing observed and modelled components of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26° N

Harry Bryden, Jordi Beunk, Sybren Drijfhout, Wilco Hazeleger, and Jennifer Mecking

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Cited articles

Asbjørnsen, H. and Årthun, M.: Deconstructing future AMOC decline at 26.5° N, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2023GL103515, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103515, 2023. 
Baker, J. S., Bell, M. J., Jackson, L. C., Renshaw, R., Vallis, G. K., Watson, A. J. and Wood, R. A.: Overturning pathways control AMOC weakening in CMIP6 Models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2023GL103381, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103381, 2023. 
Beunk, J.: Comparing observed and modeled decomposition of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26° N, MSc Thesis, Department of Geosciences, Utrecht University [code], 54 pp., https://studenttheses.uu.nl/handle/20.500.12932/41572 (last access: 15 April 2024), 2022. 
Boucher, O., Denvil, S., Levavasseur, G., Cozic, A., Caubel, A., Foujols, M.-A., Meurdesoif, Y., Cadule, P., Devilliers, M., Dupont, E., and Lurton, T.: IPSL IPSL-CM6A-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 Scenario MIP SSP5-8.5, Version 20211003, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5271, 2019. 
Boucher, O., Denvil, S., Levavasseur, G., Cozic, A., Caubel, A., Foujols, M.-A., Meurdesoif, Y., Balkanski, Y., Checa-Garcia, R., Hauglustaine, D., Bekki, S., and Marchand, M.: IPSL IPSL-CM6A-LR-INCA model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP Historical, Version 20211003, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.13601, 2021. 
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There is widespread interest in whether the Gulf Stream will decline under global warming. We analyse 19 coupled climate model projections of the AMOC over the 21st century. The model consensus is that the AMOC will decline by about 40 % due to reductions in northward Gulf Stream transport and southward deep western boundary current transport. Whilst the wind-driven Gulf Stream decreases by 4 Sv, most of the decrease in the Gulf Stream is due to a reduction of 7 Sv in its thermohaline component.
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