Ocean Science
Ocean Science
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Articles | Volume 20, issue 2
Articles | Volume 20, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-589-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-589-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 20, issue 2
Research article
 | 
17 Apr 2024
Research article |  | 17 Apr 2024

Comparing observed and modelled components of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26° N

Harry Bryden, Jordi Beunk, Sybren Drijfhout, Wilco Hazeleger, and Jennifer Mecking

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Short summary
There is widespread interest in whether the Gulf Stream will decline under global warming. We analyse 19 coupled climate model projections of the AMOC over the 21st century. The model consensus is that the AMOC will decline by about 40 % due to reductions in northward Gulf Stream transport and southward deep western boundary current transport. Whilst the wind-driven Gulf Stream decreases by 4 Sv, most of the decrease in the Gulf Stream is due to a reduction of 7 Sv in its thermohaline component.
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