Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1567-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1567-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Ensemble reconstruction of missing satellite data using a denoising diffusion model: application to chlorophyll a concentration in the Black Sea
GeoHydrodynamics and Environment Research (GHER), FOCUS, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
Julien Brajard
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen 5007, Norway
Aida Alvera-Azcárate
GeoHydrodynamics and Environment Research (GHER), FOCUS, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
Bayoumy Mohamed
GeoHydrodynamics and Environment Research (GHER), FOCUS, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
Charles Troupin
GeoHydrodynamics and Environment Research (GHER), FOCUS, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
Jean-Marie Beckers
GeoHydrodynamics and Environment Research (GHER), FOCUS, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
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Aida Alvera-Azcárate, Dimitry Van der Zande, Alexander Barth, Antoine Dille, Joppe Massant, and Jean-Marie Beckers
Ocean Sci., 21, 787–805, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-787-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-787-2025, 2025
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This work presents an approach for increasing the spatial resolution of satellite data and interpolating gaps due to cloud cover, using a method called DINEOF (data-interpolating empirical orthogonal functions). The method is tested on turbidity and chlorophyll-a concentration data in the Belgian coastal zone and the North Sea. The results show that we are able to improve the spatial resolution of these data in order to perform analyses of spatial and temporal variability in coastal regions.
Bayoumy Mohamed, Alexander Barth, Dimitry Van der Zande, and Aida Alvera-Azcárate
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1578, 2025
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We quantified the role of climate change and internal variability on marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the North Sea over more than four decades (1982–2024). A key finding is the 2013 climate shift, which was associated with increased warming and MHWs. Long-term warming accounted for 80 % of the observed trend in MHW frequency. The most intense MHW event in May 2024 was attributed to an anomalous anticyclonic atmospheric circulation. We also explored the impact of MHWs on chlorophyll concentrations.
Cécile Pujol, Alexander Barth, Iván Pérez-Santos, Pamela Muñoz-Linford, and Aida Alvera-Azcárate
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1421, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1421, 2025
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Marine heatwaves and cold spells are periods of extreme sea temperatures. This study focuses on Chilean Northern Patagonia, a fjord region vulnerable due to its aquaculture. It aims to understand these events' distribution and identify the most affected basins. Results show higher intensity in enclosed areas like Reloncaví Sound and Puyuhuapi Fjord. Marine heatwaves are becoming more frequent over time, while cold spells are decreasing.
Ehsan Mehdipour, Hongyan Xi, Alexander Barth, Aida Alvera-Azcárate, Adalbert Wilhelm, and Astrid Bracher
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-112, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-112, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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Phytoplankton are vital for marine ecosystems and nutrient cycling, detectable by optical satellites. Data gaps caused by clouds and other non-optimal conditions limit comprehensive analyses like trend monitoring. This study evaluated DINCAE and DINEOF gap-filling methods for reconstructing chlorophyll-a datasets, including total chlorophyll-a and five major phytoplankton groups. Both methods showed robust reconstruction capabilities, aiding pattern detection and long-term ocean colour analysis.
Matjaž Zupančič Muc, Vitjan Zavrtanik, Alexander Barth, Aida Alvera-Azcarate, Matjaž Ličer, and Matej Kristan
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-208, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-208, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Accurate sea surface temperature data (SST) is crucial for weather forecasting and climate modeling, but satellite observations are often incomplete. We developed a new method called CRITER, which uses machine learning to fill in the gaps in SST data. Our two-stage approach reconstructs large-scale patterns and refines details. Tested on Mediterranean, Adriatic, and Atlantic seas data, CRITER outperforms current methods, reducing errors by up to 44 %.
Francesca Doglioni, Robert Ricker, Benjamin Rabe, Alexander Barth, Charles Troupin, and Torsten Kanzow
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 225–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-225-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-225-2023, 2023
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This paper presents a new satellite-derived gridded dataset, including 10 years of sea surface height and geostrophic velocity at monthly resolution, over the Arctic ice-covered and ice-free regions, up to 88° N. We assess the dataset by comparison to independent satellite and mooring data. Results correlate well with independent satellite data at monthly timescales, and the geostrophic velocity fields can resolve seasonal to interannual variability of boundary currents wider than about 50 km.
Alexander Barth, Aida Alvera-Azcárate, Charles Troupin, and Jean-Marie Beckers
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2183–2196, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2183-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2183-2022, 2022
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Earth-observing satellites provide routine measurement of several ocean parameters. However, these datasets have a significant amount of missing data due to the presence of clouds or other limitations of the employed sensors. This paper describes a method to infer the value of the missing satellite data based on a convolutional autoencoder (a specific type of neural network architecture). The technique also provides a reliable error estimate of the interpolated value.
Malek Belgacem, Katrin Schroeder, Alexander Barth, Charles Troupin, Bruno Pavoni, Patrick Raimbault, Nicole Garcia, Mireno Borghini, and Jacopo Chiggiato
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5915–5949, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5915-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5915-2021, 2021
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The Mediterranean Sea exhibits an anti-estuarine circulation, responsible for its low productivity. Understanding this peculiar character is still a challenge since there is no exact quantification of nutrient sinks and sources. Because nutrient in situ observations are generally infrequent and scattered in space and time, climatological mapping is often applied to sparse data in order to understand the biogeochemical state of the ocean. The dataset presented here partly addresses these issues.
Zikang He, Yiguo Wang, Julien Brajard, Xidong Wang, and Zheqi Shen
The Cryosphere, 19, 3279–3293, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3279-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3279-2025, 2025
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Declining Arctic sea ice presents both risks and opportunities for ecosystems, communities, and economic activities. To address prediction errors in dynamical models, we apply machine learning for error correction during prediction (online) or post-processing (offline). Our results show that both methods enhance sea ice predictions, particularly from September to January, with offline corrections outperforming online corrections.
Cyril Palerme, Johannes Röhrs, Thomas Lavergne, Jozef Rusin, Are Frode Kvanum, Atle Macdonald Sørensen, Arne Melsom, Julien Brajard, Martina Idžanović, Marina Durán Moro, and Malte Müller
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2001, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2001, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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We present MET-AICE, a sea ice prediction system based on artificial intelligence techniques that has been running operationally since March 2024. The forecasts are produced daily and provide sea ice concentration predictions for the next 10 days. We evaluate the MET-AICE forecasts from the first year of operation, and we compare them to forecasts produced by a physically-based model (Barents-2.5km). We show that MET-AICE is skillful and provides more accurate forecasts than Barents-2.5km.
Aida Alvera-Azcárate, Dimitry Van der Zande, Alexander Barth, Antoine Dille, Joppe Massant, and Jean-Marie Beckers
Ocean Sci., 21, 787–805, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-787-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-787-2025, 2025
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This work presents an approach for increasing the spatial resolution of satellite data and interpolating gaps due to cloud cover, using a method called DINEOF (data-interpolating empirical orthogonal functions). The method is tested on turbidity and chlorophyll-a concentration data in the Belgian coastal zone and the North Sea. The results show that we are able to improve the spatial resolution of these data in order to perform analyses of spatial and temporal variability in coastal regions.
Bayoumy Mohamed, Alexander Barth, Dimitry Van der Zande, and Aida Alvera-Azcárate
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1578, 2025
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We quantified the role of climate change and internal variability on marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the North Sea over more than four decades (1982–2024). A key finding is the 2013 climate shift, which was associated with increased warming and MHWs. Long-term warming accounted for 80 % of the observed trend in MHW frequency. The most intense MHW event in May 2024 was attributed to an anomalous anticyclonic atmospheric circulation. We also explored the impact of MHWs on chlorophyll concentrations.
Cécile Pujol, Alexander Barth, Iván Pérez-Santos, Pamela Muñoz-Linford, and Aida Alvera-Azcárate
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1421, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1421, 2025
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Marine heatwaves and cold spells are periods of extreme sea temperatures. This study focuses on Chilean Northern Patagonia, a fjord region vulnerable due to its aquaculture. It aims to understand these events' distribution and identify the most affected basins. Results show higher intensity in enclosed areas like Reloncaví Sound and Puyuhuapi Fjord. Marine heatwaves are becoming more frequent over time, while cold spells are decreasing.
Ehsan Mehdipour, Hongyan Xi, Alexander Barth, Aida Alvera-Azcárate, Adalbert Wilhelm, and Astrid Bracher
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-112, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-112, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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Phytoplankton are vital for marine ecosystems and nutrient cycling, detectable by optical satellites. Data gaps caused by clouds and other non-optimal conditions limit comprehensive analyses like trend monitoring. This study evaluated DINCAE and DINEOF gap-filling methods for reconstructing chlorophyll-a datasets, including total chlorophyll-a and five major phytoplankton groups. Both methods showed robust reconstruction capabilities, aiding pattern detection and long-term ocean colour analysis.
Léo Edel, Jiping Xie, Anton Korosov, Julien Brajard, and Laurent Bertino
The Cryosphere, 19, 731–752, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-731-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-731-2025, 2025
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This study developed a new method to estimate Arctic sea ice thickness from 1992 to 2010 using a combination of machine learning and data assimilation. By training a machine learning model on data from 2011 to 2022, past errors in sea ice thickness can be corrected, leading to improved estimations. This approach provides insights into historical changes in sea ice thickness, showing a notable decline from 1992 to 2022, and offers a valuable resource for future studies.
Charlotte Durand, Tobias Sebastian Finn, Alban Farchi, Marc Bocquet, Julien Brajard, and Laurent Bertino
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4028, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4028, 2025
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This paper presents a four-dimensional variational data assimilation system based on a neural network emulator for sea-ice thickness, learned from neXtSIM simulation outputs. Testing with simulated and real observation retrievals, the system improves forecasts and bias error, performing comparably to operational methods, demonstrating the promise of sea-ice data-driven data assimilation systems.
Zikang He, Julien Brajard, Yiguo Wang, Xidong Wang, and Zheqi Shen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-212, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-212, 2025
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Climate prediction is challenging due to systematic errors in traditional climate models. We addressed this by training a machine learning model to correct these errors and then integrating it with the traditional climate model to form an AI-physics hybrid model. Our study demonstrates that the hybrid model outperforms the original climate model on both short-term and long-term predictions of the atmosphere and ocean.
Matjaž Zupančič Muc, Vitjan Zavrtanik, Alexander Barth, Aida Alvera-Azcarate, Matjaž Ličer, and Matej Kristan
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-208, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-208, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate sea surface temperature data (SST) is crucial for weather forecasting and climate modeling, but satellite observations are often incomplete. We developed a new method called CRITER, which uses machine learning to fill in the gaps in SST data. Our two-stage approach reconstructs large-scale patterns and refines details. Tested on Mediterranean, Adriatic, and Atlantic seas data, CRITER outperforms current methods, reducing errors by up to 44 %.
Georges Baaklini, Julien Brajard, Leila Issa, Gina Fifani, Laurent Mortier, and Roy El Hourany
Ocean Sci., 20, 1707–1720, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1707-2024, 2024
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Understanding the flow of the Levantine Sea surface current is not straightforward. We propose a study based on learning techniques to follow interactions between water near the shore and further out at sea. Our results show changes in the coastal currents past 33.8° E, with frequent instances of water breaking away along the Lebanese coast. These events happen quickly and sometimes lead to long-lasting eddies. This study underscores the need for direct observations to improve our knowledge.
Simon Driscoll, Alberto Carrassi, Julien Brajard, Laurent Bertino, Einar Ólason, Marc Bocquet, and Amos Lawless
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2476, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2476, 2024
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The formation and evolution of sea ice melt ponds (ponds of melted water) are complex, insufficiently understood and represented in models with considerable uncertainty. These uncertain representations are not traditionally included in climate models potentially causing the known underestimation of sea ice loss in climate models. Our work creates the first observationally based machine learning model of melt ponds that is also a ready and viable candidate to be included in climate models.
Manal Hamdeno, Aida Alvera-Azcárate, George Krokos, and Ibrahim Hoteit
Ocean Sci., 20, 1087–1107, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1087-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1087-2024, 2024
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Our study focuses on the characteristics of MHWs in the Red Sea during the last 4 decades. Using satellite-derived sea surface temperatures (SSTs), we found a clear warming trend in the Red Sea since 1994, which has intensified significantly since 2016. This SST rise was associated with an increase in the frequency and days of MHWs. In addition, a correlation was found between the frequency of MHWs and some climate modes, which was more pronounced in some years of the study period.
Cyril Palerme, Thomas Lavergne, Jozef Rusin, Arne Melsom, Julien Brajard, Are Frode Kvanum, Atle Macdonald Sørensen, Laurent Bertino, and Malte Müller
The Cryosphere, 18, 2161–2176, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2161-2024, 2024
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Sea ice forecasts are operationally produced using physically based models, but these forecasts are often not accurate enough for maritime operations. In this study, we developed a statistical correction technique using machine learning in order to improve the skill of short-term (up to 10 d) sea ice concentration forecasts produced by the TOPAZ4 model. This technique allows for the reduction of errors from the TOPAZ4 sea ice concentration forecasts by 41 % on average.
Pamela Linford, Iván Pérez-Santos, Paulina Montero, Patricio A. Díaz, Claudia Aracena, Elías Pinilla, Facundo Barrera, Manuel Castillo, Aida Alvera-Azcárate, Mónica Alvarado, Gabriel Soto, Cécile Pujol, Camila Schwerter, Sara Arenas-Uribe, Pilar Navarro, Guido Mancilla-Gutiérrez, Robinson Altamirano, Javiera San Martín, and Camila Soto-Riquelme
Biogeosciences, 21, 1433–1459, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1433-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1433-2024, 2024
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The Patagonian fjords comprise a world region where low-oxygen water and hypoxia conditions are observed. An in situ dataset was used to quantify the mechanism involved in the presence of these conditions in northern Patagonian fjords. Water mass analysis confirmed the contribution of Equatorial Subsurface Water in the advection of the low-oxygen water, and hypoxic conditions occurred when the community respiration rate exceeded the gross primary production.
Francesca Doglioni, Robert Ricker, Benjamin Rabe, Alexander Barth, Charles Troupin, and Torsten Kanzow
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 225–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-225-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-225-2023, 2023
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This paper presents a new satellite-derived gridded dataset, including 10 years of sea surface height and geostrophic velocity at monthly resolution, over the Arctic ice-covered and ice-free regions, up to 88° N. We assess the dataset by comparison to independent satellite and mooring data. Results correlate well with independent satellite data at monthly timescales, and the geostrophic velocity fields can resolve seasonal to interannual variability of boundary currents wider than about 50 km.
Georges Baaklini, Roy El Hourany, Milad Fakhri, Julien Brajard, Leila Issa, Gina Fifani, and Laurent Mortier
Ocean Sci., 18, 1491–1505, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1491-2022, 2022
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We use machine learning to analyze the long-term variation of the surface currents in the Levantine Sea, located in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. We decompose the circulation into groups based on their physical characteristics and analyze their spatial and temporal variability. We show that most structures of the Levantine Sea are becoming more energetic over time, despite those of the western area remaining the most dominant due to their complex bathymetry and strong currents.
Alexander Barth, Aida Alvera-Azcárate, Charles Troupin, and Jean-Marie Beckers
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2183–2196, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2183-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2183-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Earth-observing satellites provide routine measurement of several ocean parameters. However, these datasets have a significant amount of missing data due to the presence of clouds or other limitations of the employed sensors. This paper describes a method to infer the value of the missing satellite data based on a convolutional autoencoder (a specific type of neural network architecture). The technique also provides a reliable error estimate of the interpolated value.
Malek Belgacem, Katrin Schroeder, Alexander Barth, Charles Troupin, Bruno Pavoni, Patrick Raimbault, Nicole Garcia, Mireno Borghini, and Jacopo Chiggiato
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5915–5949, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5915-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5915-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Mediterranean Sea exhibits an anti-estuarine circulation, responsible for its low productivity. Understanding this peculiar character is still a challenge since there is no exact quantification of nutrient sinks and sources. Because nutrient in situ observations are generally infrequent and scattered in space and time, climatological mapping is often applied to sparse data in order to understand the biogeochemical state of the ocean. The dataset presented here partly addresses these issues.
Estrella Olmedo, Verónica González-Gambau, Antonio Turiel, Cristina González-Haro, Aina García-Espriu, Marilaure Gregoire, Aida Álvera-Azcárate, Luminita Buga, and Marie-Hélène Rio
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2021-364, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2021-364, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We present the first dedicated satellite salinity product in the Black Sea. We use the measurements provided by the European Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity mission. We introduce enhanced algorithms for dealing with the contamination produced by the Radio Frequency Interferences that strongly affect this basin. We also provide a complete quality assessment of the new product and give an estimated accuracy of it.
Sylvain Watelet, Øystein Skagseth, Vidar S. Lien, Helge Sagen, Øivind Østensen, Viktor Ivshin, and Jean-Marie Beckers
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2447–2457, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2447-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2447-2020, 2020
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We present here a seasonal atlas of the Barents Sea including both temperature and salinity for the period 1965–2016. This atlas is curated using several in situ data sources interpolated thanks to the tool DIVA minimizing the expected errors. The results show a recent "Atlantification" of the Barents Sea, i.e., a general increase in both temperature and salinity, while its density remains stable. The atlas is made freely accessible (https://doi.org/10.21335/NMDC-2058021735).
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Short summary
Most satellite observations have gaps, for example, due to clouds. This paper presents a method to reconstruct missing data in satellite observations of the chlorophyll a concentration in the Black Sea. Rather than giving a single possible reconstructed field, the discussed method provides an ensemble of possible reconstructions using a generative neural network. The resulting ensemble is validated using techniques from numerical weather prediction and ocean modelling.
Most satellite observations have gaps, for example, due to clouds. This paper presents a method...