Articles | Volume 17, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1815-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1815-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 Dec 2021
Research article |
| 23 Dec 2021
| 23 Dec 2021
Swell hindcast statistics for the Baltic Sea
Jan-Victor Björkqvist
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Allégaten 70, 5007, Bergen, Norway
Department of Marine Systems, Tallinn University of Technology, Akadeemia tee 15a, 12611, Tallinn, Estonia
Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
Siim Pärt
Department of Marine Systems, Tallinn University of Technology, Akadeemia tee 15a, 12611, Tallinn, Estonia
Victor Alari
Department of Marine Systems, Tallinn University of Technology, Akadeemia tee 15a, 12611, Tallinn, Estonia
Sander Rikka
Department of Marine Systems, Tallinn University of Technology, Akadeemia tee 15a, 12611, Tallinn, Estonia
Elisa Lindgren
Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
Laura Tuomi
Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
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Hedi Kanarik, Laura Tuomi, Pekka Alenius, Elina Miettunen, Milla Johansson, Tuomo Roine, Antti Westerlund, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Ocean Sci., 21, 2125–2147, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2125-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2125-2025, 2025
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The Archipelago Sea (AS), part of the Baltic Sea off the northwest coast of Finland, is a fragmented area with intense human activity. This study presents an overview of the observed currents and their main drivers in the area. While local winds primarily drive the AS currents, simultaneous sea level variations in the Bay of Bothnia and Gulf of Finland also significantly impact the area's dynamics.
Urmas Raudsepp, Ilja Maljutenko, Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Amirhossein Barzandeh, Sander Rikka, Aarne Männik, Siim Pärt, Priidik Lagemaa, Victor Alari, Kaimo Vahter, and Rivo Uiboupin
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2025-8, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2025-8, 2025
Preprint under review for SP
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The study identified key extreme metocean conditions relevant for Floating Storage and Regasification Unit design on Estonia’s coast, using statistical approaches like GPD and GEV to estimate return values. These thresholds inform infrastructure safety margins. The analysis was extended across the Baltic Sea using harmonized methods, enabling consistent risk assessment, cross-border planning, and climate-resilient design for major maritime infrastructure sites.
Laura Tuomi, Milla Johansson, Andrew Twelves, Mika Rantanen, Priidik Lagemaa, Hedi Kanarik, Jani Särkkä, Urmas Raudsepp, and Antti Westerlund
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2025-12, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2025-12, 2025
Preprint under review for SP
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A record low sea level of -153 cm, 34 cm below the previous minimum, was measured in the Bothnian Bay in November 2024. This extreme event was caused by a strong and long-lasting windstorm that followed an unusual track. The BAL MFC NRT physical forecast system was able to accurately predict this sea level event 3–4 days in advance. However, forecasts with longer lead times failed to predict the record low sea level, although they did indicate a significant drop in sea levels during the storm.
Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Mari Savela, Heidi Pettersson, Victor Alari, and Alf Norkko
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2936, 2025
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Strong motions caused by surface waves can set the material at the bottom in motion. How strong the wave motions need to be depends on the bottom type, for example mud or sand. We estimated how often wave can lift particles from the bottom. Tests with sea floor samples in the laboratory showed that the required wave force can be much larger in reality compared to models that are only based on the grain size of the sea floor. These differences are explained by biological activity at the bottom.
Jan-Victor Björkqvist and Victor Alari
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3477, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3477, 2024
Preprint archived
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Surface waves are generated by the wind and wave measurements can also be used to estimate the wind speed. This is beneficial in the open ocean where direct measurements of the wind are difficult. The wind speed deduced from wave measurements serve as a third estimate of the wind speed in addition to satellite measurements or numerical model results. We implemented such and algorithm to be used with wave data from a small buoy and validated it against direct wind measurements and model results.
Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Hedi Kanarik, Laura Tuomi, Lauri Niskanen, and Markus Kankainen
State Planet, 4-osr8, 10, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-10-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-10-2024, 2024
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Typical wave statistics do not provide information on how often certain wave heights are exceeded and the length of such events. Our study found a strong seasonal dependence for 2.5 and 4 m wave events in the Baltic Sea. Wave heights of over 7 m occurred less than once per year. The number of 1 m wave events can double within 20 km in nearshore areas. Our results are important for all operations at sea, including ship traffic and fish farming.
Taavi Liblik, Daniel Rak, Enriko Siht, Germo Väli, Johannes Karstensen, Laura Tuomi, Louise C. Biddle, Madis-Jaak Lilover, Māris Skudra, Michael Naumann, Urmas Lips, and Volker Mohrholz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2272, 2024
Preprint archived
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Eight current meters were deployed to the seafloor across the Baltic to enhance knowledge about circulation and currents. The experiment was complemented by autonomous vehicles. Stable circulation patterns were observed at the sea when weather was steady. Strong and quite persistent currents were observed at the key passage for the deep-water renewal of the Northern Baltic Sea. Deep water renewal mostly occurs during spring and summer periods in the northern Baltic Sea.
Elina Miettunen, Laura Tuomi, Antti Westerlund, Hedi Kanarik, and Kai Myrberg
Ocean Sci., 20, 69–83, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-69-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-69-2024, 2024
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We studied circulation and transports in the Archipelago Sea (in the Baltic Sea) with a high-resolution hydrodynamic model. Transport dynamics show different variabilities in the north and south, so no single transect can represent transport through the whole area in all cases. The net transport in the surface layer is southward and follows the alignment of the deeper channels. In the lower layer, the net transport is southward in the northern part of the area and northward in the southern part.
Verónica González-Gambau, Estrella Olmedo, Antonio Turiel, Cristina González-Haro, Aina García-Espriu, Justino Martínez, Pekka Alenius, Laura Tuomi, Rafael Catany, Manuel Arias, Carolina Gabarró, Nina Hoareau, Marta Umbert, Roberto Sabia, and Diego Fernández
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2343–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2343-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2343-2022, 2022
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We present the first Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) dedicated products over the Baltic Sea (ESA Baltic+ Salinity Dynamics). The Baltic+ L3 product covers 9 days in a 0.25° grid. The Baltic+ L4 is derived by merging L3 SSS with sea surface temperature information, giving a daily product in a 0.05° grid. The accuracy of L3 is 0.7–0.8 and 0.4 psu for the L4. Baltic+ products have shown to be useful, covering spatiotemporal data gaps and for validating numerical models.
H. E. Markus Meier, Madline Kniebusch, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Eduardo Zorita, Ragnar Elmgren, Kai Myrberg, Markus P. Ahola, Alena Bartosova, Erik Bonsdorff, Florian Börgel, Rene Capell, Ida Carlén, Thomas Carlund, Jacob Carstensen, Ole B. Christensen, Volker Dierschke, Claudia Frauen, Morten Frederiksen, Elie Gaget, Anders Galatius, Jari J. Haapala, Antti Halkka, Gustaf Hugelius, Birgit Hünicke, Jaak Jaagus, Mart Jüssi, Jukka Käyhkö, Nina Kirchner, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kulinski, Andreas Lehmann, Göran Lindström, Wilhelm May, Paul A. Miller, Volker Mohrholz, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Diego Pavón-Jordán, Markus Quante, Marcus Reckermann, Anna Rutgersson, Oleg P. Savchuk, Martin Stendel, Laura Tuomi, Markku Viitasalo, Ralf Weisse, and Wenyan Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 457–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, 2022
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Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in the climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere.
Anna Rutgersson, Erik Kjellström, Jari Haapala, Martin Stendel, Irina Danilovich, Martin Drews, Kirsti Jylhä, Pentti Kujala, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Kirsten Halsnæs, Ilari Lehtonen, Anna Luomaranta, Erik Nilsson, Taru Olsson, Jani Särkkä, Laura Tuomi, and Norbert Wasmund
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 251–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022, 2022
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A natural hazard is a naturally occurring extreme event with a negative effect on people, society, or the environment; major events in the study area include wind storms, extreme waves, high and low sea level, ice ridging, heavy precipitation, sea-effect snowfall, river floods, heat waves, ice seasons, and drought. In the future, an increase in sea level, extreme precipitation, heat waves, and phytoplankton blooms is expected, and a decrease in cold spells and severe ice winters is anticipated.
Antti Westerlund, Elina Miettunen, Laura Tuomi, and Pekka Alenius
Ocean Sci., 18, 89–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-89-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-89-2022, 2022
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Water exchange through the Åland Sea (in the Baltic Sea) affects the conditions in the neighbouring Gulf of Bothnia. Pathways and variability of flows were studied with a high-resolution hydrodynamic model. Our analysis showed a northward transport in the deep layer and net transport towards the south in the surface layer. While on the southern edge of the Åland Sea the primary route of deep-water exchange is through Lågskär Deep, some deep water still bypasses it to the Åland Sea.
Tuomas Kärnä, Patrik Ljungemyr, Saeed Falahat, Ida Ringgaard, Lars Axell, Vasily Korabel, Jens Murawski, Ilja Maljutenko, Anja Lindenthal, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Svetlana Verjovkina, Ina Lorkowski, Priidik Lagemaa, Jun She, Laura Tuomi, Adam Nord, and Vibeke Huess
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5731–5749, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5731-2021, 2021
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We present Nemo-Nordic 2.0, a novel operational marine model for the Baltic Sea. The model covers the Baltic Sea and the North Sea with approximately 1 nmi resolution. We validate the model's performance against sea level, water temperature, and salinity observations, as well as sea ice charts. The skill analysis demonstrates that Nemo-Nordic 2.0 can reproduce the hydrographic features of the Baltic Sea.
Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Sander Rikka, Victor Alari, Aarne Männik, Laura Tuomi, and Heidi Pettersson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3593–3609, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3593-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3593-2020, 2020
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Wave observations have a fundamental uncertainty due to the randomness of the sea state. Such scatter is absent in model data, and we tried two methods to best account for this difference when combining measured and modelled wave heights. The results were used to estimate how rare a 2019 storm in the Bothnian Sea was. Both methods were found to have strengths and weaknesses, but our best estimate was that, in the current climate, such a storm might on average repeat about once a century.
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Short summary
Waves that travel faster than the wind are called swell. Our study presents wave model statistics of swell waves in the Baltic Sea, since such statistics have not yet been reliably compiled. Our results confirm that long, high, and persistent swell is absent in the Baltic Sea. We found that the dependency between swell and wind waves differs in the open sea compared to nearshore areas. These distinctions are important for studies on how waves interact with the atmosphere and the sea floor.
Waves that travel faster than the wind are called swell. Our study presents wave model...
