The rate of change in the marine environment along the south coast of South Africa (32–37° S, 20–30° E) is studied using reanalysis observations for 1900–2015 and coupled ensemble model projections for 1980–2100. Although sea surface temperatures offshore are warming rapidly, a trend toward easterly winds and stronger shelf-edge currents have intensified nearshore upwelling (−0.03 °C yr⁻¹) and contribute to a drier climate.