Articles | Volume 22, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1987-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1987-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Jun 2026
Research article |
| 26 Jun 2026
| 26 Jun 2026
Dynamically downscaled future projections of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean across low to high emissions scenarios
Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA
NOAA/OAR/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, FL, USA
Andrew C. Ross
NOAA/OAR/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA,
Sang-Ik Shin
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
NOAA/OAR/Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
Fabian A. Gomez
Northern Gulf Institute, Mississippi State University, Starkville, MS, USA
NOAA/OAR/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, FL, USA
Jasmin G. John
NOAA/OAR/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, FL, USA
Denis L. Volkov
Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA
NOAA/OAR/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, FL, USA
Sang-Ki Lee
NOAA/OAR/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, FL, USA
Michael A. Alexander
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
Charles A. Stock
NOAA/OAR/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA,
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Michael Jacox, Dmitry Dukhovskoy, Jessie Liu, Michael Alexander, Elizabeth Drenkard, Andrew Ross, Natalie Freeman, Dillon Amaya, Steven Bograd, Allison Cluett, Nicole Lovenduski, Samuel Mogen, Mercedes Pozo Buil, Charles Stock, Wei Cheng, Albert Hermann, Liwei Jia, Nathaniel Johnson, Kelly Kearney, Colleen McHugh, and Darren Pilcher
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5844, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5844, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Ocean Science (OS).
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We present a new system to predict conditions in the Northeast Pacific Ocean up to one year in advance. By comparing past forecasts with ocean measurements, we show that we can accurately predict temperature and oxygen levels several months in advance. These predictions will soon be available to the public, enabling coastal communities, managers, and industries to make better proactive decisions.
Vimal Koul, Andrew C. Ross, Charles Stock, Liping Zhang, Andrew T. Wittenberg, and Thomas Delworth
Ocean Sci., 22, 3017–3036, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-3017-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-3017-2026, 2026
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Predicting coastal ocean conditions years ahead has been difficult due to complex regional dynamics. This work shows we can forecast bottom temperature, oxygen, and acidity up to a decade ahead for the Northeast US Shelf. Our forecasts indicate increasing Labrador water may accelerate acidification, threatening shell-forming organisms. This provides a foundation for early warning systems to help communities and fisheries adapt proactively.
Andrew Ross, Charles Stock, Vimal Koul, Liwei Jia, Nathaniel Johnson, and Colleen McHugh
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5262, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5262, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Ocean Science (OS).
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This paper examines the accuracy of forecasts of ocean oxygen and acidity, both critical for the healthy functioning of fish and marine ecosystems, along the continental shelf off the Northeast U.S. coastline. The forecasts are produced using a novel numerical model able to resolve fine oceanographic details. Comparison with a reference dataset shows that the model often accurately predicts oxygen and acidity up to several months in advance.
Dmitry S. Dukhovskoy, Theresa Cordero, Katherine Hedstrom, Michael Alexander, Michael Jacox, Robert Hallberg, Matthew Harrison, and Jessie Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 7169–7196, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-7169-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-7169-2026, 2026
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Regional sea ice models often struggle to represent sea ice near model domain boundaries, where errors can accumulate over time. We implemented and tested a method that gradually adjusts simulated sea ice toward prescribed conditions while preserving a realistic evolution of the ice cover. Experiments in the Arctic and Northeast Pacific show improved sea ice simulations and ocean surface conditions, providing a practical tool for regional forecasting and research applications.
Gabriela Negrete García, Dax Matthews, Charles A. Stock, Brian Powell, Ryan R. Rykaczewski, Kisei Tanaka, Hannah Barkley, Tobias Friedrich, Jessica Y. Luo, Andrew C. Ross, and Yi-Cheng Teng
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1877, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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Ocean waters near the Hawaiian Islands support billions of dollars in fisheries, tourism, and coral reefs, yet managing these resources requires understanding ocean dynamics at multiple scales. We developed and tested a high-resolution ocean model for the central North Pacific against satellite data, long-term ocean monitoring, and coral temperatures. The model reliably reproduced key patterns across all scales, offering a tool for forecasting fish habitat, reef health, and ocean acidification.
Xiao Liu, John P. Dunne, Liwei Jia, Charles A. Stock, Xiaosong Yang, Matthew J. Harrison, Liping Zhang, and Anthony Rosati
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4194, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4194, 2026
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This study uses NOAA GFDL’s SPEAR model to improve predictions of how the ocean absorbs human emitted CO2. While standard models capture long-term trends, they struggle with yearly fluctuations. Researchers found that "initializing" the model with observed data significantly boosts their prediction accuracy for up to two years. This framework helps separate the predictions of natural variability from human-driven carbon changes, a vital step for verifying future marine carbon removal efforts.
Jacob Steinberg, John Krasting, and Andrew Ross
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3057, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3057, 2026
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We build and analyze an ensemble of year-long hindcasts of sea level in the northwest Atlantic Ocean. With a particular focus at US East Coast tide gauge stations, we reveal regional differences in simulated variability resulting from different parent and downscaled ocean model horizontal resolution. We consider differences among parent model, downscaled model, and observed variability as a function of frequency and find downscaled enhancements increase with decreasing latitude.
Meena Raju, David J. Cannon, Peter Alsip, He Wang, Jia Wang, Theresa Cordero, Robert W. Hallberg, Charles A. Stock, and Joseph A. Langan
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 4331–4356, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-4331-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-4331-2026, 2026
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This study developed the Modular Ocean Model version 6.0 coupled with Sea Ice Simulator version 2.0 for the Great Lakes, validated against observations and an operational model. This study also tested two vertical coordinate systems, z* and hybrid. The model reproduced lake physics with good skill. The hybrid vertical coordinate improved thermocline representation and preserved deep cold-water during stratification, demonstrating the model’s suitability for large freshwater systems.
Inseong Chang, Young Ho Kim, Young-Gyu Park, Hyunkeun Jin, Gyundo Pak, Andrew C. Ross, and Robert Hallberg
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 3053–3074, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3053-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3053-2026, 2026
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This study assesses how vertical coordinate choice shapes barotropic and baroclinic tide simulations in a high-resolution, MOM6 (Modular Ocean Model version 6) regional model. Focusing on the Yellow Sea under realistic forcing and seasonal stratification, we compare z* and z*-isopycnal hybrid to quantify coordinate-dependent impacts on tidal energetics and vertical structure. The results underscore that vertical representation is critical for accurately reproducing coastal stratification and tide–stratification interactions.
Inseong Chang, Young Ho Kim, Young-Gyu Park, Hyunkeun Jin, Gyundo Pak, Andrew C. Ross, and Robert Hallberg
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 187–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-187-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-187-2026, 2026
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We conducted sensitivity experiments to examine how different vertical coordinates influence the representation of water masses and tides using a high-resolution regional ocean model for the Northwest Pacific. We found that the choice of vertical coordinate strongly affects the degree of artificial mixing, which in turn changes how well the model reproduces key ocean features. This highlights the importance of selecting a vertical coordinate when developing regional ocean models.
Vivek Seelanki, Wei Cheng, Phyllis J. Stabeno, Albert J. Hermann, Elizabeth J. Drenkard, Charles A. Stock, and Katherine Hedstrom
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 7681–7705, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7681-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7681-2025, 2025
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Both physical and ecosystem properties of the ocean are rapidly changing. These changes anticipating ecosystem responses to environmental change and effectively managing marine. The model-based predictions and their performance in the historical states of the ocean must be carefully evaluated against observations. In this study a coupled ocean and sea-ice simulation during 1993–2018 using observations. We focus on the Bering Sea shelf, which is the largest productive ecosystem in the US.
Enhui Liao, Laure Resplandy, Fan Yang, Yangyang Zhao, Sam Ditkovsky, Manon Malsang, Jenna Pearson, Andrew C. Ross, Robert Hallberg, and Charles Stock
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 6553–6596, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6553-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6553-2025, 2025
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The northern Indian Ocean is central to the livelihoods and economies of countries that comprise about one-third of the world's population. We present a high-resolution (~10 km) ocean model that simulates seasonal and year-to-year variability in ocean, including currents, oxygen levels, and phytoplankton growth. This model is a powerful tool to study how climate change and human activities influence the northern Indian Ocean, which can be used for marine resource applications and management.
Elizabeth J. Drenkard, Charles A. Stock, Andrew C. Ross, Yi-Cheng Teng, Theresa Cordero, Wei Cheng, Alistair Adcroft, Enrique Curchitser, Raphael Dussin, Robert Hallberg, Claudine Hauri, Katherine Hedstrom, Albert Hermann, Michael G. Jacox, Kelly A. Kearney, Rémi Pagès, Darren J. Pilcher, Mercedes Pozo Buil, Vivek Seelanki, and Niki Zadeh
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5245–5290, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5245-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5245-2025, 2025
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We made a new regional ocean model to assist fisheries and ecosystem managers in making decisions in the Northeast Pacific Ocean (NEP). We found that the model did well simulating past ocean conditions like temperature and nutrient and oxygen levels and can even reproduce metrics used by, and important to, ecosystem managers.
Mathieu A. Poupon, Laure Resplandy, Jessica Garwood, Charles Stock, Niki Zadeh, and Jessica Y. Luo
Ocean Sci., 21, 851–875, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-851-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-851-2025, 2025
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Zooplankton diel vertical migration (DVM) shapes ocean biogeochemical cycles. We present a new DVM model that reproduces migration depths observed in the North Atlantic Ocean. We show that chlorophyll shading contributes to reducing zooplankton migration depth and mainly controls its spatial and temporal variability. Thus, high chlorophyll concentrations may limit carbon sequestration caused by zooplankton migration despite the general abundance of zooplankton migration in these environments.
Andrew C. Ross, Charles A. Stock, Vimal Koul, Thomas L. Delworth, Feiyu Lu, Andrew Wittenberg, and Michael A. Alexander
Ocean Sci., 20, 1631–1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1631-2024, 2024
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In this paper, we use a high-resolution regional ocean model to downscale seasonal ocean forecasts from the Seamless System for Prediction and EArth System Research (SPEAR) model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). We find that the downscaled model has significantly higher prediction skill in many cases.
Minjin Lee, Charles A. Stock, John P. Dunne, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5191–5224, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5191-2024, 2024
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Modeling global freshwater solid and nutrient loads, in both magnitude and form, is imperative for understanding emerging eutrophication problems. Such efforts, however, have been challenged by the difficulty of balancing details of freshwater biogeochemical processes with limited knowledge, input, and validation datasets. Here we develop a global freshwater model that resolves intertwined algae, solid, and nutrient dynamics and provide performance assessment against measurement-based estimates.
Mathilde Dugenne, Marco Corrales-Ugalde, Jessica Y. Luo, Rainer Kiko, Todd D. O'Brien, Jean-Olivier Irisson, Fabien Lombard, Lars Stemmann, Charles Stock, Clarissa R. Anderson, Marcel Babin, Nagib Bhairy, Sophie Bonnet, Francois Carlotti, Astrid Cornils, E. Taylor Crockford, Patrick Daniel, Corinne Desnos, Laetitia Drago, Amanda Elineau, Alexis Fischer, Nina Grandrémy, Pierre-Luc Grondin, Lionel Guidi, Cecile Guieu, Helena Hauss, Kendra Hayashi, Jenny A. Huggett, Laetitia Jalabert, Lee Karp-Boss, Kasia M. Kenitz, Raphael M. Kudela, Magali Lescot, Claudie Marec, Andrew McDonnell, Zoe Mériguet, Barbara Niehoff, Margaux Noyon, Thelma Panaïotis, Emily Peacock, Marc Picheral, Emilie Riquier, Collin Roesler, Jean-Baptiste Romagnan, Heidi M. Sosik, Gretchen Spencer, Jan Taucher, Chloé Tilliette, and Marion Vilain
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2971–2999, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2971-2024, 2024
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Plankton and particles influence carbon cycling and energy flow in marine ecosystems. We used three types of novel plankton imaging systems to obtain size measurements from a range of plankton and particle sizes and across all major oceans. Data were compiled and cross-calibrated from many thousands of images, showing seasonal and spatial changes in particle size structure in different ocean basins. These datasets form the first release of the Pelagic Size Structure database (PSSdb).
Krysten Rutherford, Katja Fennel, Lina Garcia Suarez, and Jasmin G. John
Biogeosciences, 21, 301–314, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-301-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-301-2024, 2024
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We downscaled two mid-century (~2075) ocean model projections to a high-resolution regional ocean model of the northwest North Atlantic (NA) shelf. In one projection, the NA shelf break current practically disappears; in the other it remains almost unchanged. This leads to a wide range of possible future shelf properties. More accurate projections of coastal circulation features would narrow the range of possible outcomes of biogeochemical projections for shelf regions.
Katja Frieler, Jan Volkholz, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, María del Rocío Rivas López, Christian Otto, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Johanna T. Malle, Simon Treu, Christoph Menz, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Yannick Rousseau, Reg A. Watson, Charles Stock, Xiao Liu, Ryan Heneghan, Derek Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Tingting Wang, Fubao Sun, Inga J. Sauer, Johannes Koch, Inne Vanderkelen, Jonas Jägermeyr, Christoph Müller, Sam Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Fang Li, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred Hattermann, Jida Wang, Fangfang Yao, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana Isabel Ayala-Zamora, Matthew Forrest, and Michel Bechtold
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, 2024
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Our paper provides an overview of all observational climate-related and socioeconomic forcing data used as input for the impact model evaluation and impact attribution experiments within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. The experiments are designed to test our understanding of observed changes in natural and human systems and to quantify to what degree these changes have already been induced by climate change.
Andrew C. Ross, Charles A. Stock, Alistair Adcroft, Enrique Curchitser, Robert Hallberg, Matthew J. Harrison, Katherine Hedstrom, Niki Zadeh, Michael Alexander, Wenhao Chen, Elizabeth J. Drenkard, Hubert du Pontavice, Raphael Dussin, Fabian Gomez, Jasmin G. John, Dujuan Kang, Diane Lavoie, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Vincent Saba, Sang-Ik Shin, Samantha Siedlecki, and James Simkins
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6943–6985, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6943-2023, 2023
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We evaluate a model for northwest Atlantic Ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry that balances high resolution with computational economy by building on the new regional features in the MOM6 ocean model and COBALT biogeochemical model. We test the model's ability to simulate impactful historical variability and find that the model simulates the mean state and variability of most features well, which suggests the model can provide information to inform living-marine-resource applications.
Weiyi Tang, Bess B. Ward, Michael Beman, Laura Bristow, Darren Clark, Sarah Fawcett, Claudia Frey, François Fripiat, Gerhard J. Herndl, Mhlangabezi Mdutyana, Fabien Paulot, Xuefeng Peng, Alyson E. Santoro, Takuhei Shiozaki, Eva Sintes, Charles Stock, Xin Sun, Xianhui S. Wan, Min N. Xu, and Yao Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5039–5077, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5039-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5039-2023, 2023
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Nitrification and nitrifiers play an important role in marine nitrogen and carbon cycles by converting ammonium to nitrite and nitrate. Nitrification could affect microbial community structure, marine productivity, and the production of nitrous oxide – a powerful greenhouse gas. We introduce the newly constructed database of nitrification and nitrifiers in the marine water column and guide future research efforts in field observations and model development of nitrification.
Fabian A. Gomez, Sang-Ki Lee, Charles A. Stock, Andrew C. Ross, Laure Resplandy, Samantha A. Siedlecki, Filippos Tagklis, and Joseph E. Salisbury
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2223–2234, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2223-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2223-2023, 2023
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We present a river chemistry and discharge dataset for 140 rivers in the United States, which integrates information from the Water Quality Database of the US Geological Survey (USGS), the USGS’s Surface-Water Monthly Statistics for the Nation, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. This dataset includes dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity, two key properties to characterize the carbonate system, as well as nutrient concentrations, such as nitrate, phosphate, and silica.
Alban Planchat, Lester Kwiatkowski, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Torres, James R. Christian, Momme Butenschön, Tomas Lovato, Roland Séférian, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Olivier Aumont, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, Tatiana Ilyina, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, John P. Dunne, and Charles Stock
Biogeosciences, 20, 1195–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, 2023
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Ocean alkalinity is critical to the uptake of atmospheric carbon and acidification in surface waters. We review the representation of alkalinity and the associated calcium carbonate cycle in Earth system models. While many parameterizations remain present in the latest generation of models, there is a general improvement in the simulated alkalinity distribution. This improvement is related to an increase in the export of biotic calcium carbonate, which closer resembles observations.
Denis L. Volkov, Claudia Schmid, Leah Chomiak, Cyril Germineaud, Shenfu Dong, and Marlos Goes
Ocean Sci., 18, 1741–1762, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1741-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1741-2022, 2022
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Ocean and atmosphere dynamics redistribute heat and freshwater, which drives regional sea level changes. This study reports on the east-to-west propagation of sea level anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic as an important component of the interannual to decadal regional sea level variability. It is demonstrated that this variability is the result of a complex interplay between the local wind forcing, surface heat fluxes, and the advection of heat and freshwater by ocean currents.
Marion Kersalé, Denis L. Volkov, Kandaga Pujiana, and Hong Zhang
Ocean Sci., 18, 193–212, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-193-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-193-2022, 2022
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The southern Indian Ocean is one of the major basins for regional heat accumulation and sea level rise. The year-to-year changes of regional sea level are influenced by water exchange with the Pacific Ocean via the Indonesian Throughflow. Using a general circulation model, we show that the spatiotemporal pattern of these changes is primarily set by local wind forcing modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation, while oceanic signals originating in the Pacific can amplify locally forced signals.
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Short summary
Using high-resolution Modular Ocean Model version 6, we projected Northwest Atlantic changes under four future emission scenarios. Results show a weakening Gulf Stream reduces upwelling, causing significant shelf warming and salinification. This also leads to dynamic sea-level rise along the US East Coast, particularly in the South Atlantic Bight, with critical implications for marine ecosystems and coastal risks.
Using high-resolution Modular Ocean Model version 6, we projected Northwest Atlantic changes...
