Articles | Volume 22, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1987-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1987-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Jun 2026
Research article |
| 26 Jun 2026
| 26 Jun 2026
Dynamically downscaled future projections of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean across low to high emissions scenarios
Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA
NOAA/OAR/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, FL, USA
Andrew C. Ross
NOAA/OAR/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA,
Sang-Ik Shin
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
NOAA/OAR/Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
Fabian A. Gomez
Northern Gulf Institute, Mississippi State University, Starkville, MS, USA
NOAA/OAR/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, FL, USA
Jasmin G. John
NOAA/OAR/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, FL, USA
Denis L. Volkov
Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA
NOAA/OAR/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, FL, USA
Sang-Ki Lee
NOAA/OAR/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, FL, USA
Michael A. Alexander
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
Charles A. Stock
NOAA/OAR/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA,
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Ocean Science (OS).
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We build and analyze an ensemble of year-long hindcasts of sea level in the northwest Atlantic Ocean. With a particular focus at US East Coast tide gauge stations, we reveal regional differences in simulated variability resulting from different parent and downscaled ocean model horizontal resolution. We consider differences among parent model, downscaled model, and observed variability as a function of frequency and find downscaled enhancements increase with decreasing latitude.
Meena Raju, David J. Cannon, Peter Alsip, He Wang, Jia Wang, Theresa Cordero, Robert W. Hallberg, Charles A. Stock, and Joseph A. Langan
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 4331–4356, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-4331-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-4331-2026, 2026
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This study developed the Modular Ocean Model version 6.0 coupled with Sea Ice Simulator version 2.0 for the Great Lakes, validated against observations and an operational model. This study also tested two vertical coordinate systems, z* and hybrid. The model reproduced lake physics with good skill. The hybrid vertical coordinate improved thermocline representation and preserved deep cold-water during stratification, demonstrating the model’s suitability for large freshwater systems.
Inseong Chang, Young Ho Kim, Young-Gyu Park, Hyunkeun Jin, Gyundo Pak, Andrew C. Ross, and Robert Hallberg
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 3053–3074, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3053-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3053-2026, 2026
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This study assesses how vertical coordinate choice shapes barotropic and baroclinic tide simulations in a high-resolution, MOM6 (Modular Ocean Model version 6) regional model. Focusing on the Yellow Sea under realistic forcing and seasonal stratification, we compare z* and z*-isopycnal hybrid to quantify coordinate-dependent impacts on tidal energetics and vertical structure. The results underscore that vertical representation is critical for accurately reproducing coastal stratification and tide–stratification interactions.
Dmitry S. Dukhovskoy, Theresa Cordero, Katherine Hedstrom, Michael Alexander, Michael Jacox, Robert Hallberg, Matthew Harrison, and Jessie Liu
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Vimal Koul, Andrew Ross, Charles Stock, Liping Zhang, Andrew Wittenberg, and Thomas Delworth
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-481, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-481, 2026
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Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 187–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-187-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-187-2026, 2026
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Vivek Seelanki, Wei Cheng, Phyllis J. Stabeno, Albert J. Hermann, Elizabeth J. Drenkard, Charles A. Stock, and Katherine Hedstrom
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 7681–7705, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7681-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7681-2025, 2025
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Enhui Liao, Laure Resplandy, Fan Yang, Yangyang Zhao, Sam Ditkovsky, Manon Malsang, Jenna Pearson, Andrew C. Ross, Robert Hallberg, and Charles Stock
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 6553–6596, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6553-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6553-2025, 2025
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The northern Indian Ocean is central to the livelihoods and economies of countries that comprise about one-third of the world's population. We present a high-resolution (~10 km) ocean model that simulates seasonal and year-to-year variability in ocean, including currents, oxygen levels, and phytoplankton growth. This model is a powerful tool to study how climate change and human activities influence the northern Indian Ocean, which can be used for marine resource applications and management.
Elizabeth J. Drenkard, Charles A. Stock, Andrew C. Ross, Yi-Cheng Teng, Theresa Cordero, Wei Cheng, Alistair Adcroft, Enrique Curchitser, Raphael Dussin, Robert Hallberg, Claudine Hauri, Katherine Hedstrom, Albert Hermann, Michael G. Jacox, Kelly A. Kearney, Rémi Pagès, Darren J. Pilcher, Mercedes Pozo Buil, Vivek Seelanki, and Niki Zadeh
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5245–5290, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5245-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5245-2025, 2025
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We made a new regional ocean model to assist fisheries and ecosystem managers in making decisions in the Northeast Pacific Ocean (NEP). We found that the model did well simulating past ocean conditions like temperature and nutrient and oxygen levels and can even reproduce metrics used by, and important to, ecosystem managers.
Mathieu A. Poupon, Laure Resplandy, Jessica Garwood, Charles Stock, Niki Zadeh, and Jessica Y. Luo
Ocean Sci., 21, 851–875, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-851-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-851-2025, 2025
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Zooplankton diel vertical migration (DVM) shapes ocean biogeochemical cycles. We present a new DVM model that reproduces migration depths observed in the North Atlantic Ocean. We show that chlorophyll shading contributes to reducing zooplankton migration depth and mainly controls its spatial and temporal variability. Thus, high chlorophyll concentrations may limit carbon sequestration caused by zooplankton migration despite the general abundance of zooplankton migration in these environments.
Andrew C. Ross, Charles A. Stock, Vimal Koul, Thomas L. Delworth, Feiyu Lu, Andrew Wittenberg, and Michael A. Alexander
Ocean Sci., 20, 1631–1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1631-2024, 2024
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Minjin Lee, Charles A. Stock, John P. Dunne, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5191–5224, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5191-2024, 2024
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Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2971–2999, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2971-2024, 2024
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Krysten Rutherford, Katja Fennel, Lina Garcia Suarez, and Jasmin G. John
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Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, 2024
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Andrew C. Ross, Charles A. Stock, Alistair Adcroft, Enrique Curchitser, Robert Hallberg, Matthew J. Harrison, Katherine Hedstrom, Niki Zadeh, Michael Alexander, Wenhao Chen, Elizabeth J. Drenkard, Hubert du Pontavice, Raphael Dussin, Fabian Gomez, Jasmin G. John, Dujuan Kang, Diane Lavoie, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Vincent Saba, Sang-Ik Shin, Samantha Siedlecki, and James Simkins
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6943–6985, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6943-2023, 2023
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Weiyi Tang, Bess B. Ward, Michael Beman, Laura Bristow, Darren Clark, Sarah Fawcett, Claudia Frey, François Fripiat, Gerhard J. Herndl, Mhlangabezi Mdutyana, Fabien Paulot, Xuefeng Peng, Alyson E. Santoro, Takuhei Shiozaki, Eva Sintes, Charles Stock, Xin Sun, Xianhui S. Wan, Min N. Xu, and Yao Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5039–5077, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5039-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5039-2023, 2023
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Nitrification and nitrifiers play an important role in marine nitrogen and carbon cycles by converting ammonium to nitrite and nitrate. Nitrification could affect microbial community structure, marine productivity, and the production of nitrous oxide – a powerful greenhouse gas. We introduce the newly constructed database of nitrification and nitrifiers in the marine water column and guide future research efforts in field observations and model development of nitrification.
Fabian A. Gomez, Sang-Ki Lee, Charles A. Stock, Andrew C. Ross, Laure Resplandy, Samantha A. Siedlecki, Filippos Tagklis, and Joseph E. Salisbury
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2223–2234, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2223-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2223-2023, 2023
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We present a river chemistry and discharge dataset for 140 rivers in the United States, which integrates information from the Water Quality Database of the US Geological Survey (USGS), the USGS’s Surface-Water Monthly Statistics for the Nation, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. This dataset includes dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity, two key properties to characterize the carbonate system, as well as nutrient concentrations, such as nitrate, phosphate, and silica.
Alban Planchat, Lester Kwiatkowski, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Torres, James R. Christian, Momme Butenschön, Tomas Lovato, Roland Séférian, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Olivier Aumont, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, Tatiana Ilyina, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, John P. Dunne, and Charles Stock
Biogeosciences, 20, 1195–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, 2023
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Ocean alkalinity is critical to the uptake of atmospheric carbon and acidification in surface waters. We review the representation of alkalinity and the associated calcium carbonate cycle in Earth system models. While many parameterizations remain present in the latest generation of models, there is a general improvement in the simulated alkalinity distribution. This improvement is related to an increase in the export of biotic calcium carbonate, which closer resembles observations.
Denis L. Volkov, Claudia Schmid, Leah Chomiak, Cyril Germineaud, Shenfu Dong, and Marlos Goes
Ocean Sci., 18, 1741–1762, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1741-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1741-2022, 2022
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Ocean and atmosphere dynamics redistribute heat and freshwater, which drives regional sea level changes. This study reports on the east-to-west propagation of sea level anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic as an important component of the interannual to decadal regional sea level variability. It is demonstrated that this variability is the result of a complex interplay between the local wind forcing, surface heat fluxes, and the advection of heat and freshwater by ocean currents.
Marion Kersalé, Denis L. Volkov, Kandaga Pujiana, and Hong Zhang
Ocean Sci., 18, 193–212, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-193-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-193-2022, 2022
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The southern Indian Ocean is one of the major basins for regional heat accumulation and sea level rise. The year-to-year changes of regional sea level are influenced by water exchange with the Pacific Ocean via the Indonesian Throughflow. Using a general circulation model, we show that the spatiotemporal pattern of these changes is primarily set by local wind forcing modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation, while oceanic signals originating in the Pacific can amplify locally forced signals.
Igor A. Dmitrenko, Denis L. Volkov, Tricia A. Stadnyk, Andrew Tefs, David G. Babb, Sergey A. Kirillov, Alex Crawford, Kevin Sydor, and David G. Barber
Ocean Sci., 17, 1367–1384, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1367-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1367-2021, 2021
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Significant trends of sea ice in Hudson Bay have led to a considerable increase in shipping activity. Therefore, understanding sea level variability is an urgent issue crucial for safe navigation and coastal infrastructure. Using the sea level, atmospheric and river discharge data, we assess environmental factors impacting variability of sea level at Churchill. We find that it is dominated by wind forcing, with the seasonal cycle generated by the seasonal cycle in atmospheric circulation.
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Short summary
Using high-resolution Modular Ocean Model version 6, we projected Northwest Atlantic changes under four future emission scenarios. Results show a weakening Gulf Stream reduces upwelling, causing significant shelf warming and salinification. This also leads to dynamic sea-level rise along the US East Coast, particularly in the South Atlantic Bight, with critical implications for marine ecosystems and coastal risks.
Using high-resolution Modular Ocean Model version 6, we projected Northwest Atlantic changes...
