Ocean Science
Ocean Science
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Articles | Volume 21, issue 5
Articles | Volume 21, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2001-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2001-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 21, issue 5
Research article
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17 Sep 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 17 Sep 2025

The historical representation and near-future (2050) projections of the Coral Sea current system in CMIP6 HighResMIP

Jodie A. Schlaefer, Clothilde Langlais, Severine Choukroun, Mathieu Mongin, and Mark E. Baird

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Latest update: 13 Oct 2026
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Editorial statement
This paper highlights the changes in ocean temperatures and currents that are likely to affect the Great Barrier Reef in coming decades - affecting an iconic and unique environment. It uses newly available high-resolution coupled climate model output to assess the ocean warming and analyses the causes and repercussions of such warming due to climate change.
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Short summary
We examined projected changes in Coral Sea temperature and currents through to 2050 using high-resolution CMIP6 models. Surface warming deepened by 30 m per decade, reaching 400 m by 2050. There was sub-surface cooling between 400 and 600 m. North Vanuatu Jet and North Caledonian Jet transports weakened, and the South Caledonian Jet strengthened. These changes may influence western boundary currents and upwelling dynamics on the Great Barrier Reef.
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